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Post by numerouno on Sept 16, 2013 10:19:47 GMT
Is it just coincidence that two extreme weather events of 2013 both have parallel events that occurred in 1976? I thought your upcoming publication on solar cycles vs. the UK weather would answer this? I did not see you mention the coming hot UK summer of 2013 in May, or did you mention it?
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 16, 2013 10:46:28 GMT
Is it just coincidence that two extreme weather events of 2013 both have parallel events that occurred in 1976? I thought your upcoming publication on solar cycles vs. the UK weather would answer this? I did not see you mention the coming hot UK summer of 2013 in May, or did you mention it? If you'd bothered to read the link in my May post, you would have read the following: the high-altitude winds are broken up into irregular cells by weaker and more plentiful pressure centers, causing formation of a "meridional circulation" pattern. These small, weak cells may stagnate over vast areas for many months, bringing unseasonably cold weather on one side and unseasonably warm weather on the other. Droughts and floods become more frequent and may alternate season to season, as they did last year in India. Thus, while the hemisphere as a whole is cooler, individual areas may alternately break temperature and precipitation records at both extremes.
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 16, 2013 10:59:23 GMT
yup you did say it.
and I would suggest its very clear, fluctuation and falling average, its definitely what the news papers are saying we are having however they think its CO2 induced CAGW except they keep missing the paradox that lives in the falling average. it will get there soon me thinks.
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Post by numerouno on Sept 16, 2013 11:13:00 GMT
I thought your upcoming publication on solar cycles vs. the UK weather would answer this? I did not see you mention the coming hot UK summer of 2013 in May, or did you mention it? If you'd bothered to read the link in my May post, you would have read the following: the high-altitude winds are broken up into irregular cells by weaker and more plentiful pressure centers, causing formation of a "meridional circulation" pattern. These small, weak cells may stagnate over vast areas for many months, bringing unseasonably cold weather on one side and unseasonably warm weather on the other. Droughts and floods become more frequent and may alternate season to season, as they did last year in India. Thus, while the hemisphere as a whole is cooler, individual areas may alternately break temperature and precipitation records at both extremes. You did not say where some warm summers would take place, in particular the U.K was NOT mentioned by you. If you take the UK summers as the main example, as I think you are intending to, perhaps you could present the other warm UK summers and their position vs the solar cycles? Plese feel free to post in normal colours, unless of course you were exceptionally agitated by this.
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Post by numerouno on Sept 16, 2013 11:18:35 GMT
yup you did say it. and I would suggest its very clear, fluctuation and falling average, its definitely what the news papers are saying we are having however they think its CO2 induced CAGW except they keep missing the paradox that lives in the falling average. it will get there soon me thinks. What is "it", and where are you expecting "it" to get "soon"?
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 16, 2013 11:47:29 GMT
You did not say where some warm summers would take place, in particular the U.K was NOT mentioned by you. N°1, if I could predict / forecast the exact location of the blocking pattern I would be a very rich man. On the subject of forecasts, you seem to be dodging my repeated question on the end of the current UK cooling trend. When is CO2 going to reverse the trend and bless us with your promised heat and fine Mediterranean climate?
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Post by numerouno on Sept 16, 2013 14:40:42 GMT
N°1, if I could predict / forecast the exact location of the blocking pattern I would be a very rich man.
I beg your pardon, but you were I think finally going to show us your study, or someone else's on the correlation of the solar cycles and the English weather (Or the lack of any, whichever suits you.)
I see nothing of the kind, on the contrary, I see the same old graphs posted again and again which are not related to that at all. Why is that? Are you working on a study, or finding one, at all?
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 16, 2013 15:17:56 GMT
N°1, if I could predict / forecast the exact location of the blocking pattern I would be a very rich man.I beg your pardon, but you were I think finally going to show us your study, or someone else's on the correlation of the solar cycles and the English weather (Or the lack of any, whichever suits you.) I see nothing of the kind, on the contrary, I see the same old graphs posted again and again which are not related to that at all. Why is that? Are you working on a study, or finding one, at all? OK N°1 I admit defeat, I get the message that you don't believe that solar variation has any impact on climate - so how about helping me to understand how CO2 does, by answering the following questions: Question 1: Why has the climate in the UK cooled significantly over the last decade? Question 2: When will the UK's climate stop cooling and start to warm?
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Post by numerouno on Sept 16, 2013 15:50:26 GMT
Question 1: Why has the climate in the UK cooled significantly over the last decade? Question 2: When will the UK's climate stop cooling and start to warm? I'm afraid I can't answer that with the full scientific rigour, but I have a strong feeling the answer is somehow related to the recent loss of Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic. This is a climatic forcing situation that has never been seen before, so there is no ready answer from anyone. You seem to think now the answer apparently is not related to the Sun, after all, or I did understand wrong what you were admitting?
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 16, 2013 16:00:39 GMT
Question 1: Why has the climate in the UK cooled significantly over the last decade? Question 2: When will the UK's climate stop cooling and start to warm? I'm afraid I can't answer that with the full scientific rigour, but I have a strong feeling the answer is somehow related to the recent loss of Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic. This is a climatic forcing situation that has never seen before, so there is no ready answer from anyone. You seem to think now the answer apparently is not related to the Sun, after all, or I did understand wrong what you were admitting? No N°1, papers like the one below still lead me to believe solar variation is responsible (many more to be found in the "The Sun's Influence" thread: paper link: iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/3/034008/pdf/1748-9326_5_3_034008.pdfI'm very disappointed with your complete lack of scientific evidence, still as you are "N°1" your "strong feelings" must be right!!!
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Post by icefisher on Sept 16, 2013 16:52:57 GMT
Question 1: Why has the climate in the UK cooled significantly over the last decade? Question 2: When will the UK's climate stop cooling and start to warm? I'm afraid I can't answer that with the full scientific rigour, but I have a strong feeling the answer is somehow related to the recent loss of Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic. This is a climatic forcing situation that has never been seen before, so there is no ready answer from anyone. You seem to think now the answer apparently is not related to the Sun, after all, or I did understand wrong what you were admitting? The answer is very clearly related to the sun. In the 6 years I have been posting on this site one gentleman who no longer posts here used to make the claim that the sun had reached a peak in the 1980's but warming was continuing so it must not be the sun. I pointed out that in big systems like big ships that when the helm (forcing) changes direction it takes time for the system/ship to change direction. We can now see and have seen for 11 years a declining global temperature. Obviously some people refuse to acknowledge this 11 year cooling but its very clearly there. And its interesting to note that when the guy was saying there was no cooling present 6 years ago he had bought whole hog into the idea that such natural variation for up to 5 years was not sufficient evidence. Since 5 year variation is seen repeatedly in the recent climate record that seemed plausible to the gentleman as an excuse for ignoring it. But the truth is Numno that even that is related to the sun, these repeated periods of little or no warming was attributable to the low parts of solar cycles. The simple explanation is the regular solar cycle is so rapid that it doesn't override larger term solar fluctuations like grand minimums and grand maximums because of the delay in large systems like the earth's climate. What one has to learn is to be patient and observe carefully as to what is really going on. Being able to do so is the first hint of the stuff that good science is built on. If you do so you will see that perhaps the astrometeorologists are being superior scientists compared to the entire world of climate science. It seems to me we are headed towards some quite different climate times, times that no one has any adult experience of and very few even have any child experience of. Lets just hope that CO2 does provide notable forcing.
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Post by numerouno on Sept 16, 2013 21:18:14 GMT
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Post by numerouno on Sept 16, 2013 21:22:11 GMT
I'm afraid I can't answer that with the full scientific rigour, but I have a strong feeling the answer is somehow related to the recent loss of Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic. This is a climatic forcing situation that has never seen before, so there is no ready answer from anyone. You seem to think now the answer apparently is not related to the Sun, after all, or I did understand wrong what you were admitting? No N°1, papers like the one below still lead me to believe solar variation is responsible (many more to be found in the "The Sun's Influence" thread: I'm very disappointed with your complete lack of scientific evidence, still as you are "N°1" your "strong feelings" must be right!!! I'm for some reason quite unable to see anything on UK weather mentioned in your science links? I'm confused, are you still studying the UK weather, or is it "anything goes" now? You seem to be all over the place, yet nowhere.
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Post by icefisher on Sept 16, 2013 21:43:48 GMT
Numno how come if skeptical science had data to 2009 as indicated in the sources for the graph did they only plot this graph to 2004? Oh thats right its skeptical science! Silly me!
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 16, 2013 21:47:27 GMT
Your graph, in ref to solar activity, is not correct numerouno. Paper 1490 from Leif.org will show you the correct solar activity.
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