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Post by numerouno on Jun 12, 2013 4:54:38 GMT
yes but no ice at all in those times. "No ice" during MWP then, eh? Where did you learn that? Regarding large "fluctuations", the statistical methods are just for that, finding out the significant small trends among large amounts of trivial data!
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 12, 2013 5:06:04 GMT
Numerouno,
There is evidence out there that may indicate that we have been this warm before and the current "warm phase" is not unprecedented. From the tucsoncitizen.com It's since been criticized but here it is.
Norwegian research shows that current warming is not unusual by Jonathan DuHamel on Jan. 25, 2012, under Climate change
Researchers from the University of Bergen and the University of Colorado studied marine sediment cores from the Norwegian continental margin. They were able to get accurate dates from lead isotope dating of interspersed volcanic rocks in the core. They examined oxygen-18 isotopes from the calcium carbonate in the shells of planktonic foraminifera to reconstruct temperature. (Oxygen-18 is a proxy for temperature, see NASA’s Earth Observatory explanation of the method here.)
This allowed the researchers to come up with what they call “”near surface water summer temperature.” for the past 2,000 years. The following graph depicts their temperature reconstruction:
The graph shows that the current warm period is cooler than the Medieval and Roman warm periods. The researchers report a statistically significant correlation with the Gleissberg solar cycle. This is more evidence that the forces of natural variability overcome the effect, if any, of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, and it shows that current warming is neither unprecedented nor unusual.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 12, 2013 7:43:33 GMT
Back in April, Graywolf kindly posted a link to an article in nature. It's a very interesting paper; a review in the New York Times highlights that the research indicated: The Arctic was also warmest during the twentieth century, although warmer during 1941–1970 than 1971–2000 according to our reconstruction….
In Europe, slightly higher reconstructed temperatures were registered in A.D. 741–770, and the interval from A.D. 21–80 was substantially warmer than 1971–2000. Antarctica was probably warmer than 1971–2000 for a time period as recent as A.D. 1671–1700, and the entire period from 141–1250 was warmer than 1971–2000.Link: dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/22/study-charts-2000-years-of-continental-climate-changes/
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 13, 2013 21:45:49 GMT
I know that this is summer watch - but apparently according to Joe Bastardi, this thread may not be a long one. He says that the way things are shaping up we could have an early winter. Or, in his words, "Given what I am seeing for upcoming winter, this may not have been the year to try have the Super Bowl around NY. Lot going for fast start"
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Post by numerouno on Jun 14, 2013 18:22:05 GMT
Summer Watch! Yesterday in Ruona, Kuortane, Finland. Google Maps: goo.gl/maps/wnELy My gardening parents tell me summer is now about two-three weeks ahead of the normal in Central Finland.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 14, 2013 21:52:33 GMT
Summer Watch! Yesterday in Ruona, Kuortane, Finland. Google Maps: goo.gl/maps/wnELy My gardening parents tell me summer is now about two-three weeks ahead of the normal in Central Finland. The rest of the Northern Hemisphere is very envious.
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Post by numerouno on Jun 15, 2013 15:52:37 GMT
Summer Watch! Yesterday in Ruona, Kuortane, Finland. Google Maps: goo.gl/maps/wnELy My gardening parents tell me summer is now about two-three weeks ahead of the normal in Central Finland. The rest of the Northern Hemisphere is very envious. Hardly.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 15, 2013 15:59:44 GMT
The rest of the Northern Hemisphere is very envious. Hardly. Nope, we definitely are...
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Post by numerouno on Jun 15, 2013 20:14:35 GMT
England = the whole Northern Hemosphere? Reason enough here to cool down!
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Post by graywolf on Jun 15, 2013 20:34:03 GMT
Not being lumped in with 'That' Numerouno! We are doing Splendidly compared to the other post 07' years? ? No sand bags on doorsteps yet! Brierly Fields is 'dry' ( if muddy if one part?) for the first time in two years??? Went to fish the Calder today (open Season on Trout!!!!) and levels were very low ( and calm in the stoppers hence the 3lber's we were pulling in!!!) unlike this week last Year when we were in full flood? Don't read that poster as if he has the picture? We are just 'watering up ' after a cracking 2 weeks of p.m. sun ( once N.Sea Haar burnt off!) at June /May temps. I'm browner than any year post 06' ......and the summer is yet to come??? Last years polar record melt has shuftied on the Jet half a cycle so troughs are now peaks and peaks troughs. USA suffered the exact opposite a spring due to being 'trough bitten' and not 'ridge' impacted. Central Europe has 'our' (the UK) Floods. Simple's Eh?
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 16, 2013 3:56:33 GMT
England = the whole Northern Hemosphere? Reason enough here to cool down! Yep, in the last 10 years we've seen NH temps rocket upwards: NH Sea temps anom: & what's been happening in the UK: I wont be ripping out my wood stoves & planting olive trees in the garden quite yet... I'm browner than any year post 06' ......and the summer is yet to come??? GW, Dont you mean greener?
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Post by numerouno on Jun 17, 2013 20:24:46 GMT
What is this then for the recent summer temps in the NH? I should think the UK folks should start saying goodbye to Queen Victoria's infra and considering redoing most of their draining.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 17, 2013 22:02:47 GMT
What is this then for the recent summer temps in the NH? Nice chart (link please); now here's the Met Office Summer temp trend for the last 10 years: Data source link: www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.htmlThe much publicised Met Office meeting taking place this week has been organised to discuss the recent run of cold wet Summers. Just in case you failed to digest the above charts, I'll post them again: The NH has been cooling: The NH sea temperature has been cooling:
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Post by numerouno on Jun 17, 2013 22:22:57 GMT
If I may ask, why do you post your links twice?
In summer, in the Northern hemisphere, it is getting warmer. Are you denying it?
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 17, 2013 22:43:51 GMT
Weatherbell is reporting that the Indian Ocean Dipole oscillation is going negative. This could apparently lead to more rain in Australia, a lower ACE/Hurricane season and potentially an early and cold winter. Hope everyone planted fast growing crops.
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