Post by icefisher on Aug 22, 2013 14:48:42 GMT
I think there is a good chance they can make it.
The NW passage is pretty low latitude they don't have to go over 74degrees. They are getting good progress right now and are on a path of making it on schedule. they are still behind schedule but have been steadily making up time for 3 weeks now. The trajectory puts them into Pond Inlet on time if they are able to maintain the pace they have had for the past 3 weeks, roughly.
Their current arrival estimated from predicted pace (a pace they have been lately exceeding) puts them in a couple of weeks late but thats even doable. Certainly one cannot predict the weather or this years ice so they need some luck. And they have a couple of dangerous open water crossings yet to make.
I figured when they were having trouble earlier they would do better when they did not have a 100 km or more of open ocean north of them and they are.
When you have a lot of open ocean you have to deal with residual swells with wind waves on top of them as opposed to just wind waves. And having the sea exposed to the north vs the south means you are going to see more wind waves and more residual swells.
Where the biggest risks are going to be are passing up Gjoa Haven on the southeast side of King William Island and skirting along its northwest coast as the planned route implies. Taking the less risky route around the south end of the island adds a lot of miles.
A lot of boats have had trouble with that with some turning back and going around the south side. Turning back adds even more miles. Then they need to get through the thick ice north of King William Island along the Boothia Peninsula.
But the breathtaking passage has to be the 50 mile run across open seas from Somerset Island to Baffin Island. This passage in their vessel is the most life threatening of the entire trip. A major accident here and they are probably dead without an escort vessel unless they keep the vessel upright and intact. Other threats they have faced they have survival suits and I assume they can swim. Here thats a low survivability option that probably depends upon a helicopter rescue at sea.
I would never consider making that crossing at all in even a better designed rowboat, one with all the uprighting and floatation design theirs has but with less windage. But I am a moderately cautious person and am getting old as a result despite having a lot of sea time, including a lot of seatime in row boats on the ocean. If I were lured to fame and fortune? Hmmmm, well maybe! But only if conditions were near ideal with great weather forecasts. Of all the places on this trip where I would just stop rowing and throw the towel in, this is it. I would not start the crossing unless conditions were unusually good and I had near complete faith in the weather forecasts. Around here we are lucky to see such conditions one day in a week. It probably averages maybe one day in two weeks. And that perception is built on a lot of experience in this area. They can maybe hope for what we call here the October calm coming a little earlier in the Arctic. Winds seem to die out for a lot more days in October as weather conditions shift from ocean surface warming to ocean surface cooling with the change in seasons. We frequently get a similar period in May, but the October one for whatever reason seems more dependable.
They are just learning how unpredictable local winds can be, especially when whipping around an archipelago. Beautiful flat calm glassy sea mornings around here more often than not turn into 15 knot winds, white caps, and 1 to 2 foot wind waves by early afternoon. Their high windage craft has demonstrated incompetence in those conditions from the start of the trip when that wind has not been with them. Its even been hairy when it has been with them. So they have to either know something I don't about winds there or be stark raving mad to consider making that crossing.
But no doubt there are plenty of stark raving mad people still alive, just a lot fewer of them.
The NW passage is pretty low latitude they don't have to go over 74degrees. They are getting good progress right now and are on a path of making it on schedule. they are still behind schedule but have been steadily making up time for 3 weeks now. The trajectory puts them into Pond Inlet on time if they are able to maintain the pace they have had for the past 3 weeks, roughly.
Their current arrival estimated from predicted pace (a pace they have been lately exceeding) puts them in a couple of weeks late but thats even doable. Certainly one cannot predict the weather or this years ice so they need some luck. And they have a couple of dangerous open water crossings yet to make.
I figured when they were having trouble earlier they would do better when they did not have a 100 km or more of open ocean north of them and they are.
When you have a lot of open ocean you have to deal with residual swells with wind waves on top of them as opposed to just wind waves. And having the sea exposed to the north vs the south means you are going to see more wind waves and more residual swells.
Where the biggest risks are going to be are passing up Gjoa Haven on the southeast side of King William Island and skirting along its northwest coast as the planned route implies. Taking the less risky route around the south end of the island adds a lot of miles.
A lot of boats have had trouble with that with some turning back and going around the south side. Turning back adds even more miles. Then they need to get through the thick ice north of King William Island along the Boothia Peninsula.
But the breathtaking passage has to be the 50 mile run across open seas from Somerset Island to Baffin Island. This passage in their vessel is the most life threatening of the entire trip. A major accident here and they are probably dead without an escort vessel unless they keep the vessel upright and intact. Other threats they have faced they have survival suits and I assume they can swim. Here thats a low survivability option that probably depends upon a helicopter rescue at sea.
I would never consider making that crossing at all in even a better designed rowboat, one with all the uprighting and floatation design theirs has but with less windage. But I am a moderately cautious person and am getting old as a result despite having a lot of sea time, including a lot of seatime in row boats on the ocean. If I were lured to fame and fortune? Hmmmm, well maybe! But only if conditions were near ideal with great weather forecasts. Of all the places on this trip where I would just stop rowing and throw the towel in, this is it. I would not start the crossing unless conditions were unusually good and I had near complete faith in the weather forecasts. Around here we are lucky to see such conditions one day in a week. It probably averages maybe one day in two weeks. And that perception is built on a lot of experience in this area. They can maybe hope for what we call here the October calm coming a little earlier in the Arctic. Winds seem to die out for a lot more days in October as weather conditions shift from ocean surface warming to ocean surface cooling with the change in seasons. We frequently get a similar period in May, but the October one for whatever reason seems more dependable.
They are just learning how unpredictable local winds can be, especially when whipping around an archipelago. Beautiful flat calm glassy sea mornings around here more often than not turn into 15 knot winds, white caps, and 1 to 2 foot wind waves by early afternoon. Their high windage craft has demonstrated incompetence in those conditions from the start of the trip when that wind has not been with them. Its even been hairy when it has been with them. So they have to either know something I don't about winds there or be stark raving mad to consider making that crossing.
But no doubt there are plenty of stark raving mad people still alive, just a lot fewer of them.