ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Jul 26, 2014 14:17:09 GMT
But but but...its going to come back, theres a new warm pool developing in the Western pacific!!
And I'm Lebron James.
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Post by throttleup on Jul 26, 2014 14:34:36 GMT
But but but...its going to come back, theres a new warm pool developing in the Western pacific!! And I'm Lebron James. Lebron, welcome! Now that you're out of the high heat in Miami you can let us know how things are in Cleveland over the winter. I like your screen name: Anthony Violi. Very nice. Glad you're posting here -- your secret is safe with us.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 26, 2014 16:27:35 GMT
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Post by flearider on Jul 26, 2014 21:07:46 GMT
no warm just cold pushing in from 3 sides .. making it look warm
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Post by douglavers on Jul 26, 2014 22:55:01 GMT
Code, be nice. It is hard if you are a forecaster, you have placed your cojones on the block, and the iceman cometh. I meant axeman!
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 26, 2014 23:03:10 GMT
%70/%80 chance of the child I'd say that's pretty high In probably 70% is rather low. Using the past track record of the forecast models, the actual probability drops to less than 50%.
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Jul 26, 2014 23:19:03 GMT
If you look at the cross section it has cooled before the cold pool has even surfaced.
So expect it to really cool over the next 4 weeks.
Any further warming will be minimal and will have no impact.
Safe to say this is yet another bust, as i and a few others said was likely to occur many months ago.
Models still in fairy land IMO.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 27, 2014 11:37:42 GMT
You should all read Theo's tour de force on WattsUpWithThat on forecasting ENSO rather than being attacked (apart from the usual empty head attempts at poor humor) it got supported. Nice one Theo!
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 27, 2014 14:56:20 GMT
For good or bad, there will be excuse after excuse as to why there was not a super duper El Nino this year, or not one at all.
The pause continues.
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Jul 28, 2014 17:12:17 GMT
For good or bad, there will be excuse after excuse as to why there was not a super duper El Nino this year, or not one at all. The pause continues. The updated weekly averaged SST anomaly in Nino region 3.4 is -.1 Celsius. 7 day SST forecast In addition we still have a negative upper ocean heat anomaly in the Nino regions.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 28, 2014 18:25:04 GMT
The missing heat isn't in the oceans. It has left the planet. I had so hoped for an El Nino.
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Jul 28, 2014 22:11:09 GMT
Yep its all over, yet JAMSTEC and others think its going to come on in the next few months.
Cant see how, any more warmth in the Western Pacific will be countered by cooling waters that are now coming in from the North Pacific Eq Current.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 28, 2014 22:32:02 GMT
Hey Anthony, the link to your page doesn't work anymore.
I agree that the 2014 El Nino is dead and gone. With atmospheric hookup, it had a chance, but for some reason it never did hook up.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 29, 2014 2:00:16 GMT
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Jul 29, 2014 5:49:09 GMT
The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology is backing off big time. In addition the liklihood of an el nino event was lowered from 70 percent down to 50 percent. They are now "favoring" el nino developing by the end of spring 2015. (well at least 5/8 models) www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20140729.pdfTranslation: Checkmate! How long until NOAA starts to back off?
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