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Post by acidohm on May 6, 2015 16:10:21 GMT
It means nothing if the prediction turns out to be incorrect....
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Post by icefisher on May 6, 2015 19:19:10 GMT
It means nothing if the prediction turns out to be incorrect.... Right! Not only is it the case that the model ensemble has no skill at this time of year, NCEP CFS2 is currently the high rider of 24 models. Further the NCEP model is offered into the ensemble with a PDF correction function that NCEP considers the best outlook. Graywolf of course did not produce the corrected model. That model looks like this and is currently the most aggressive model in the 24 model forecast.
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Post by acidohm on May 10, 2015 6:31:19 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on May 10, 2015 15:14:52 GMT
Astro anyone? This is a great paper. Implications for the step changes in temperature observed.
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Post by acidohm on May 10, 2015 17:11:08 GMT
It's a great website Sig, hadn't seen it tagged on this forum before (which, of course, is no garuantee it hasn't been )
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Post by sigurdur on May 10, 2015 17:28:07 GMT
It's a great website Sig, hadn't seen it tagged on this forum before (which, of course, is no garuantee it hasn't been ) It is a great website I see. Papers cited to boot!!!
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Post by sigurdur on May 10, 2015 17:54:02 GMT
"which provided evidence that the sun is acting as a kind of pacemaker for driving the global climate" DUH... But Code.....Code.....CO2 is the DRIVER of our climate, come hell or high water....right? Slowly, slowly the real causes/effects are starting to break through the publishing barrier. I am so glad that the "PAUSE" is happening. Will there be another step up to surface based temperatures? I hope so, as we are over due presently. I would much prefer to get back to the Holocene Climate Optimum temps.
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Post by acidohm on May 10, 2015 18:32:36 GMT
"which provided evidence that the sun is acting as a kind of pacemaker for driving the global climate" DUH... But Code.....Code.....CO2 is the DRIVER of our climate, come hell or high water....right? Slowly, slowly the real causes/effects are starting to break through the publishing barrier. I am so glad that the "PAUSE" is happening. Will there be another step up to surface based temperatures? I hope so, as we are over due presently. I would much prefer to get back to the Holocene Climate Optimum temps. But then we'd never hear the end of it! Ideally, one solar cycle of cold and toasty after that.....
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Post by tobyglyn on May 12, 2015 9:25:36 GMT
"A "substantial" El Nino event has begun, raising the likelihood of worsening drought over inland Australia and higher daytime temperatures, the Bureau of Meteorology said. The bureau's call comes days after Fairfax Media predicted the declaration would be made on Tuesday. "This will be quite a substantial event," said David Jones, head of climate monitoring at the bureau. "It's not a weak one or a near miss" as in 2014, he said. "This event is perhaps running ahead of where the models had predicted."" www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/bureau-of-meteorology-declares-el-nino-event-in-australia-20150512-ggzdgy.html It's running ahead of where the models had predicted - we're doomed!
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Post by Ratty on May 12, 2015 9:31:31 GMT
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Post by graywolf on May 12, 2015 11:13:31 GMT
So after running at near Nino levels for over a year it still has the 'reserves' to have a major event predicted???
I suppose the anomalous sea level heights around the region the 'warm pool' builds up should have wised folk up to the potential for a pendulum back swing at some point? The problem has to be just how big a swing to expect?
If the past level of warming proved strong enough to 'warm out' the past two Nina events ( both record warm Nina events) then how far should we expect this 'back swing' to be? Had we not had any warming we might have seen a period of global cooling and a run of strong Nina events, as it is we saw those events 'milded out' and now the forcing that did that 'milding' is about to augment what may have been a moderate Nino event.
The other thing is whether any alteration in the atmosphere above the Pacific allows a wider area of warming as the wider Pacific sheds its accrued heat.
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Post by nautonnier on May 12, 2015 13:11:56 GMT
"A "substantial" El Nino event has begun, raising the likelihood of worsening drought over inland Australia and higher daytime temperatures, the Bureau of Meteorology said. The bureau's call comes days after Fairfax Media predicted the declaration would be made on Tuesday. "This will be quite a substantial event," said David Jones, head of climate monitoring at the bureau. "It's not a weak one or a near miss" as in 2014, he said. "This event is perhaps running ahead of where the models had predicted."" www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/bureau-of-meteorology-declares-el-nino-event-in-australia-20150512-ggzdgy.html It's running ahead of where the models had predicted - we're doomed! Nobody has told the winds yet though. Could be an interesting year because there are those that would get quite excited if there was an El Nino just before the Paris conference.
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Post by sigurdur on May 12, 2015 13:52:22 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on May 12, 2015 13:56:50 GMT
So after running at near Nino levels for over a year it still has the 'reserves' to have a major event predicted??? I suppose the anomalous sea level heights around the region the 'warm pool' builds up should have wised folk up to the potential for a pendulum back swing at some point? The problem has to be just how big a swing to expect? If the past level of warming proved strong enough to 'warm out' the past two Nina events ( both record warm Nina events) then how far should we expect this 'back swing' to be? Had we not had any warming we might have seen a period of global cooling and a run of strong Nina events, as it is we saw those events 'milded out' and now the forcing that did that 'milding' is about to augment what may have been a moderate Nino event. The other thing is whether any alteration in the atmosphere above the Pacific allows a wider area of warming as the wider Pacific sheds its accrued heat. Will have to see if the atmosphere hooks up Graywolf. The central USA is showing the apex of it's wet cycle as rains continue there. Are they potentially El Nino related? Could be but studies show it is about a 50-50 chance. The long term hydro cycles tho indicate it is part of the long term pattern, potentially enhanced by current Pacific Temps. I have been waiting so long for an El Nino it is almost like waiting for my daughter to give birth. She is 20 weeks along, and we know that she will give birth as that is what is forecast. The "when" she will give birth is the item in question. Just like the El Nino. They keep forecasting that we are going to have one. Sure looks like we should have one, but it takes cooperation from all the elements to actually have one.
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Post by sigurdur on May 12, 2015 15:46:09 GMT
A Nino would adversely affect skiing in Washington,Oregon,Idaho and BC but should be favorable for California. I know all you skiers are bummed, so put away your fatties and grab your junk cause it's gonna be dirty. I was reading about the great California storm of 1862 and thought it might have been a Nino event but what I read said it wasn't. Still with rain in the forecast I expect to read about flooding in California. Mudslides await....just sayin.
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