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Post by flearider on Jul 15, 2015 21:49:31 GMT
is this an el-nino ?? or just something that looks the same ? theres way to much heat along the west of the Americas .. like it's been pushed there ?? maybe it's just the last of the (lost)heat in the oceans and the reason we are seeing this on the equator is it has no were else to go ??
as always just throwing my thoughts out there ..
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Post by graywolf on Jul 16, 2015 8:52:22 GMT
When you look at the record level of strong Typhoons in the Pacific basin You get a sense of the way the accrued heat is now finding its way out of the upper ocean and back into the atmosphere? The more disturbances firing up near the equator the more WWB's that we will see and the more of that 'warm pool' shoved back East further plumping up the blob as it hits the Americas and spreads up the coast.
I can think of no finer way of showing the folk who 'pooh,poohed' the notion that stronger trades ( due to an imbalance in heat across the Atlantic/Pacific basins) buried warmed waters in the upper 700m of the ocean.
With the Pacific side of the Arctic basin losing all its ice ( including the gyres older ice stretched out toward Siberia from Beaufort) as last years 'KW' peculates into the basin there ( via the Alaskan current). I have to worry about what happens over the next 18 months as much more of this 'stored heat ' gets transferred into the Arctic via the West Coast of the USA? With the earliest return of the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic possible in 2017 any 'preconditioning' prior to this will not be good.
When we move into the traditional 'formation period' for Nino runs around just how big will this event become?
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Post by icefisher on Jul 16, 2015 12:01:28 GMT
When you look at the record level of strong Typhoons in the Pacific basin You get a sense of the way the accrued heat is now finding its way out of the upper ocean and back into the atmosphere? Yes Graywolf, natural variation has been doing that for as many decades as we have monitored it. The more disturbances firing up near the equator the more WWB's that we will see and the more of that 'warm pool' shoved back East further plumping up the blob as it hits the Americas and spreads up the coast. Only problem there Graywolf is thats what happened last year and is not what has been happening this year. What we had last year was the year with no winter its been followed with virtually no water warming this summer. So far this whole event as dramatic oceanography wise is concerned is having no long term impact. No sign of it at all. I can think of no finer way of showing the folk who 'pooh,poohed' the notion that stronger trades ( due to an imbalance in heat across the Atlantic/Pacific basins) buried warmed waters in the upper 700m of the ocean. With the Pacific side of the Arctic basin losing all its ice ( including the gyres older ice stretched out toward Siberia from Beaufort) as last years 'KW' peculates into the basin there ( via the Alaskan current). I have to worry about what happens over the next 18 months as much more of this 'stored heat ' gets transferred into the Arctic via the West Coast of the USA? With the earliest return of the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic possible in 2017 any 'preconditioning' prior to this will not be good. When we move into the traditional 'formation period' for Nino runs around just how big will this event become? I don't know anything of the actual cause of what we have seen lately. It is interesting though that El Nino became a hugely popular item in the 1980's because of the impacts on Nino 3.4 was unprecedented (at least in comparison to the 30 years it had been monitored up to that point. Today we are have been seeing those big northerly current shifts associated with El Ninos occurring over the the past year and and half with anemic impacts on Nino 3.4. This though to locals seems to be more attributable to impacts in relationship to what new stuff has gone on line for monitoring, such as remote areas of the equatorial Pacific (Nino 3.4, since 1950's) and an association of those impacts to global climate (since the 1980's) Before El Nino became popular globally, locals have seen this pattern play out in roughly 12 year cycles since I have been alive and a fairly decent proxy of it back to the late 19th Century has been documented across commercial fishery landing information. From a climate perspective it might today be behaning consistently with your beliefs as to the causation, but the long pause in warming has killed the statistical analysis, one they can only reconstruct via reconstructing the global temperature record. And what a mess that record is!!! Its built piecemeal on a network of many thousands of daily observations from stations never constructed for longterm temperature monitoring whose reconstruction has been driven by the very same climate models that have failed totally to exhibit any skill in predicting anything. that failure extend to predicting the ENSO cycle the only skill existing in the ENSO modeling is in the short term. We know that the spring predictability barrier exists so skill on El Nino beyond a few weeks is fleeting at best, best in the late summer/early fall after ENSO events are well underway and eroding back to zero each year. At any rate no push of warm water is being currently experienced off California, that all occurred very strongly last year and the only remarkable climate event currently occurring is an unprecedented lack of summer water warming over the preceding winter low. Here currently in Socal water temperature from the inshore to a 100 miles out are virtually normal. Outside of that they are unusually warm but have been so for over a year and a half. Right now the only really interesting experiment is what is going to come with the next solar minimum and what will that minimum be like and what impacts it might have on the Pacific Ocean and global climate.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 16, 2015 12:40:53 GMT
When you look at the record level of strong Typhoons in the Pacific basin You get a sense of the way the accrued heat is now finding its way out of the upper ocean and back into the atmosphere? The more disturbances firing up near the equator the more WWB's that we will see and the more of that 'warm pool' shoved back East further plumping up the blob as it hits the Americas and spreads up the coast. I can think of no finer way of showing the folk who 'pooh,poohed' the notion that stronger trades ( due to an imbalance in heat across the Atlantic/Pacific basins) buried warmed waters in the upper 700m of the ocean. With the Pacific side of the Arctic basin losing all its ice ( including the gyres older ice stretched out toward Siberia from Beaufort) as last years 'KW' peculates into the basin there ( via the Alaskan current). I have to worry about what happens over the next 18 months as much more of this 'stored heat ' gets transferred into the Arctic via the West Coast of the USA? With the earliest return of the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic possible in 2017 any 'preconditioning' prior to this will not be good. When we move into the traditional 'formation period' for Nino runs around just how big will this event become? As Ryan Maue has pointed out; the typhoon tracks are clear in the Pacific SST's showing that there is not a lot of depth to the warm water.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2015 12:42:16 GMT
This is still a different El Nino pattern. One has to wonder if this one is mimicking a pattern similar to the 1940's. Our period of observation with the knowledge that El Nino/La Nina exist and a PDO exist is short. Graywolf continues to worry about Arctic Ice. Someone has to. . But one still can't deny that the Komerat {sp} entered the Pacific using the NE passage in WW2, And the St Rock sailed the North route of the NW passage in 44. The log book is available to purchase. Fascinating read. Day after day with no ice observed. This is actual observation. Boots on the ground type of observation. Important to remember.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2015 13:05:22 GMT
Every El Nino has its own pattern. This potential El Nino is no different, in that it is potentially like no other. I know AGW folks are really hoping it is a strong one so it validates temp models. There isn't enough measured energy in the Pacific for that to happen. Physics is still physics.
The "blob" on the west coast seems to be a repeat event. This blob has everyone excited, but as Joe B points out it has happened before.
Norway is still a very interesting study. Their tax base goes back centuries. Papers show land that was recently Ice covered was taxed in the past. The glaciers retreat are showing vibrant farms that existed prior to the advance of the glaciers in the LIA period.
I believe that you need to be older to understand climate dynamics. Young folks grasp of change is short and they get climate and weather mixed up.
What I find of most interest in my little area of the world is the return to patterns that my grandfather observed. Are we 0.02C warmer now? Could be. Season length is now similar to late 1930-1940's period.
So, while Graywolf is looking at new wonders, to me they are repeats of potential past behavior. Each repeat has its own twist.
One thing for sure. The sun will rise in the east tomorrow. If it doesn't, then who will care about the past?? Or the future? Time will have stopped for everyone and Dr. Who won't be able to save us.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2015 15:52:03 GMT
Every El Nino has its own pattern. This potential El Nino is no different, in that it is potentially like no other. I know AGW folks are really hoping it is a strong one so it validates temp models. There isn't enough measured energy in the Pacific for that to happen. Physics is still physics. The "blob" on the west coast seems to be a repeat event. This blob has everyone excited, but as Joe B points out it has happened before. Norway is still a very interesting study. Their tax base goes back centuries. Papers show land that was recently Ice covered was taxed in the past. The glaciers retreat are showing vibrant farms that existed prior to the advance of the glaciers in the LIA period. I believe that you need to be older to understand climate dynamics. Young folks grasp of change is short and they get climate and weather mixed up. What I find of most interest in my little area of the world is the return to patterns that my grandfather observed. Are we 0.02C warmer now? Could be. Season length is now similar to late 1930-1940's period. So, while Graywolf is looking at new wonders, to me they are repeats of potential past behavior. Each repeat has its own twist. One thing for sure. The sun will rise in the east tomorrow. If it doesn't, then who will care about the past?? Or the future? Time will have stopped for everyone and Dr. Who won't be able to save us. Just for reference the "Blob" is natural and has nothing to do with AGW so says NASA and leading Universities and Professor Cliff Mass for Univesity of Washington. I know that, you know that Code. However, Joe (know nothing) Romm on Think Progress found the blob and the world started to end. Of course, the low information folks who read his garbage, picked up on this and now everything that happens west of the Mississippi is a result of that super hot steaming never before observed "blob". What's even worse, is when you show the low information folks who read that kind of drivel, and BELIEVE it, to be wrong, all of a sudden you are this oil co paid shrill. It gets so bad that they quoted Mann in an article about the SUN. Heck, he doesn't even understand climate, much less now he is a solar physisist? The whole AGW thing reminds me so much of the butter/egg/coffee/tea/red meat etc...etc.. and what have you scare of a decade ago. All brought to us by a fellow who did a poor paper, was on the American Heart Assn board. Just like red taters. My wife is diabetic, early stages family history. I kept trying to tell her to eat red taters and her sugar levels would stabalize. OF course, her diet adviser said I was nuts. OF COURSE, now they know that red potatoes are such a complex carb that it takes HOURS to break down, and low and behold, stabilizes sugar levels. My grandpa was diabetic, late age onset. My grandma kept feeding him spuds BECAUSE he felt better eating them. OF course, she didn't know the why, just the results of NOT following the supposed learned advice. The butter, egg, meat thing I knew had to be scewed. All I had to do was look at all the older folks around me, in really good health, (75-90 years old)....who ate eggs every morning as part of their breakfast, put butter on those eggs etc. Anyways, enough of my rant, but the younguns who think that some recent wonderful discovery is a golden one had better remember how wrong so many supposed "beliefs", backed by supposed science have been. Enjoy that cup of coffee. It is actually good for you.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 16, 2015 17:23:57 GMT
Just for reference the "Blob" is natural and has nothing to do with AGW so says NASA and leading Universities and Professor Cliff Mass for Univesity of Washington. I know that, you know that Code. However, Joe (know nothing) Romm on Think Progress found the blob and the world started to end. Of course, the low information folks who read his garbage, picked up on this and now everything that happens west of the Mississippi is a result of that super hot steaming never before observed "blob". What's even worse, is when you show the low information folks who read that kind of drivel, and BELIEVE it, to be wrong, all of a sudden you are this oil co paid shrill. It gets so bad that they quoted Mann in an article about the SUN. Heck, he doesn't even understand climate, much less now he is a solar physisist? The whole AGW thing reminds me so much of the butter/egg/coffee/tea/red meat etc...etc.. and what have you scare of a decade ago. All brought to us by a fellow who did a poor paper, was on the American Heart Assn board. Just like red taters. My wife is diabetic, early stages family history. I kept trying to tell her to eat red taters and her sugar levels would stabalize. OF course, her diet adviser said I was nuts. OF COURSE, now they know that red potatoes are such a complex carb that it takes HOURS to break down, and low and behold, stabilizes sugar levels. My grandpa was diabetic, late age onset. My grandma kept feeding him spuds BECAUSE he felt better eating them. OF course, she didn't know the why, just the results of NOT following the supposed learned advice. The butter, egg, meat thing I knew had to be scewed. All I had to do was look at all the older folks around me, in really good health, (75-90 years old)....who ate eggs every morning as part of their breakfast, put butter on those eggs etc. Anyways, enough of my rant, but the younguns who think that some recent wonderful discovery is a golden one had better remember how wrong so many supposed "beliefs", backed by supposed science have been. Enjoy that cup of coffee. It is actually good for you. Please tell me beer is good for me?
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 17, 2015 12:31:29 GMT
Normal live beer (real ale) is good for you It is full of trace elements and lots of B complex vitamins. Pasteurized bottled/canned 'beer' not so much, as everything in it has been killed then filtered out; and it has to be consumed icy cold to hide the taste Sig is right. There was some research by a man called Keys who was the Michael Mann of medical research who blamed fats and meat for cancers and cholesterol leading to heart problems. He even included in his research the diet of men in Crete which he recorded during Lent when they were fasting! and compared that to their mortality :-) Read the book "Good Calories, Bad Calories" You will never trust 'government guidelines, dieticians or 'nutritionists' again You will also see that medical research is only matched by climate 'science' in its abject failures and lack of ethics.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 17, 2015 14:24:17 GMT
Normal live beer (real ale) is good for you It is full of trace elements and lots of B complex vitamins. Pasteurized bottled/canned 'beer' not so much, as everything in it has been killed then filtered out; and it has to be consumed icy cold to hide the taste Sig is right. There was some research by a man called Keys who was the Michael Mann of medical research who blamed fats and meat for cancers and cholesterol leading to heart problems. He even included in his research the diet of men in Crete which he recorded during Lent when they were fasting! and compared that to their mortality :-) Read the book "Good Calories, Bad Calories" You will never trust 'government guidelines, dieticians or 'nutritionists' again You will also see that medical research is only matched by climate 'science' in its abject failures and lack of ethics. Excellent news! I only drink ale and am in fact going to an ale festival tomorrow. ...The smile on my face will be all the larger! ! :-)
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 17, 2015 15:34:04 GMT
Normal live beer (real ale) is good for you It is full of trace elements and lots of B complex vitamins. Pasteurized bottled/canned 'beer' not so much, as everything in it has been killed then filtered out; and it has to be consumed icy cold to hide the taste Sig is right. There was some research by a man called Keys who was the Michael Mann of medical research who blamed fats and meat for cancers and cholesterol leading to heart problems. He even included in his research the diet of men in Crete which he recorded during Lent when they were fasting! and compared that to their mortality :-) Read the book "Good Calories, Bad Calories" You will never trust 'government guidelines, dieticians or 'nutritionists' again You will also see that medical research is only matched by climate 'science' in its abject failures and lack of ethics. Excellent news! I only drink ale and am in fact going to an ale festival tomorrow. ...The smile on my face will be all the larger! ! :-) Lager on your face you say?
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Post by acidohm on Jul 17, 2015 16:06:04 GMT
With some relief I see that's not actually what I rote!
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 17, 2015 16:17:36 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 17, 2015 20:18:00 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jul 18, 2015 7:18:44 GMT
Did I hear him say that, without a definite El Niño or La Niña, they don't have a clue?
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