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Post by acidohm on Jul 11, 2015 14:18:27 GMT
Even the NOAA has failed to call this an official EL Nino yet....also, it is not building up any near as rapidly as previous El Nino.... SSTA however does look very El Nino look (from what i understand, having never obserevd one before!!)
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 11, 2015 15:01:36 GMT
View AttachmentEven the NOAA has failed to call this an official EL Nino yet....also, it is not building up any near as rapidly as previous El Nino.... SSTA however does look very El Nino look (from what i understand, having never obserevd one before!!) View Attachment The SST's are setting up for a potential El Nino. Still that cold Humboldt current tho. That is why the Anchovy harvest is so good. I am looking at this as a learning event. Haven't had a strong El Nino while in negative phase of the PDO. Maybe it will be a bust, maybe not. I don't rely on the models as they have failed so often that I could throw a dart at a dart board and be as accurate. I know Graywolf still puts great stock in them, but that is his choice. 99% of folks who use science recognize a dud when it repeats being a dud.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 11, 2015 16:42:53 GMT
Just thought this was an interesting perspective, but the poles are mostly below average, the west coast USA and equatorial pacific are strong positive....
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Post by graywolf on Jul 11, 2015 17:01:42 GMT
The Indian Monsoon this year seems to be pretty normal. It generally fails in El Nino years. SE and Eastern Australia are receiving a great deal of rain; normally El Nino years are [horribly] dry. Graywolf, you may well prove to be right about a big upcoming El Nino, but right now in India and Australia, the weather is not following the script. I have this nasty feeling that something absolutely fundamental has changed in our weather, and we are in cold and uncharted waters. A very cold North Atlantic, and slow Summer melting in Greenland, Hudsons Bay, and the Arctic generally might be supporting evidence. Yup, and both last years near Nino was 'out of phase' with the normal timings of Nino's as is this year. Seeing as Monsoon is tied to solar heating over early summer why should you expect a 6 months out of phase Nino to play ball??? We must be mindful of 'seasonal' links to Nino esp. when it is so out of kilter ( trades failed to quash it and another KW is now forming in the west to further drive up the near 2c anoms ( Nino is 0.5c anom or more for 3 consecutive months). ggweather.com/enso/oni.htmMy concern is the impact on Arctic sea ice next season ( seems to be the following season for impacts over on the Bering/Beaufort side) as 'the blob, reinforced with last years record KW, is currently smashing Beaufort/Chuckchi/East Siberia sectors into slush puppy. cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.php#Cold Arctic? ?? My God man!!!!
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Post by icefisher on Jul 11, 2015 21:30:46 GMT
The Indian Monsoon this year seems to be pretty normal. It generally fails in El Nino years. SE and Eastern Australia are receiving a great deal of rain; normally El Nino years are [horribly] dry. Graywolf, you may well prove to be right about a big upcoming El Nino, but right now in India and Australia, the weather is not following the script. I have this nasty feeling that something absolutely fundamental has changed in our weather, and we are in cold and uncharted waters. A very cold North Atlantic, and slow Summer melting in Greenland, Hudsons Bay, and the Arctic generally might be supporting evidence. Yup, and both last years near Nino was 'out of phase' with the normal timings of Nino's as is this year. Seeing as Monsoon is tied to solar heating over early summer why should you expect a 6 months out of phase Nino to play ball??? We must be mindful of 'seasonal' links to Nino esp. when it is so out of kilter ( trades failed to quash it and another KW is now forming in the west to further drive up the near 2c anoms ( Nino is 0.5c anom or more for 3 consecutive months). ggweather.com/enso/oni.htmMy concern is the impact on Arctic sea ice next season ( seems to be the following season for impacts over on the Bering/Beaufort side) as 'the blob, reinforced with last years record KW, is currently smashing Beaufort/Chuckchi/East Siberia sectors into slush puppy. cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.php#Cold Arctic? ?? My God man!!!! Yep! Why out of phase may be the biggest unsettled science question of them all.
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Post by douglavers on Jul 12, 2015 4:10:02 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jul 12, 2015 4:34:55 GMT
Pardon my nefariousness, but has anyone ever considered that the melting in the North could be caused by the NH Summer?
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 12, 2015 5:17:08 GMT
Pardon my nefariousness, but has anyone ever considered that the melting in the North could be caused by the NH Summer? Ratty: That would be like saying the ice forms around Antarctica because it is cold there. Can't have that type of attitude!!!
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Post by Ratty on Jul 12, 2015 7:27:04 GMT
Pardon my nefariousness, but has anyone ever considered that the melting in the North could be caused by the NH Summer? Ratty: That would be like saying the ice forms around Antarctica because it is cold there. Can't have that type of attitude!!! Sorry ......
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Post by graywolf on Jul 12, 2015 9:47:28 GMT
Some interesting stats ; twitter.com/philklotzbachRecords tumbling all over! EDIT: Ratty, the climate reanalyser ( linked to) show 'Anoms' in temp not what 'normal' summer temps should be up there......
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Post by Ratty on Jul 12, 2015 10:08:02 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Jul 12, 2015 11:49:17 GMT
If you look at some of the data in the twitter link you will see the record levels of shear in the Carribean Ratty. No chance of anything other than the strongest of storms will over come that upper level chaos!!!! ( but then the near nino of last year did the same). Yup that is C A , just go today's weather and click on anoms. EDIT: Wow! I knew we'd had a few WWB's but currently matching 97'98 with more to come!!! www.wzforum.de/forum2/read.php?6,3013765,3059981#msg-3059981
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Post by throttleup on Jul 12, 2015 14:03:49 GMT
The end of the world is upon us! This is so exciting!/sarc
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Post by acidohm on Jul 14, 2015 17:07:13 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 15, 2015 15:33:27 GMT
It seems Theo's non event is going to come happen, I mean no insult to him, to you Theo, but it seems Theo is human just like the rest of us. It does appear that way.
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