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Post by acidohm on Sept 10, 2015 18:11:20 GMT
Alot of, well....not much, so yeah, the EL Nino index is up to 1.49.....but recently more talk of this being a Modoki El Nino as region 1+2 cools slighty, the above says some regions have had hottest this and its been a bit wetter there. However, this is always the case!! It admits the trade winds are not reversed as in '97 and talks more about what we might expect.......we've been told to expect alot for a while.....'Monster El Nino' 'The Beast'..... TBH i'd like to being alot more positive El Nino traits for my money based on what they've been selling......so far it seems to be falling short of the hype...there have been no further kelvin waves, trades are pushing all warm water west and a current just north of the warmth is pushing cooler water east. This has been the first El Nino where i knew enough to know what to watch and i have felt a bit torn between wanting Astromet to be right! and wanting to see these effects.....so far.....bit of both, but again, thats not how it was sold to us by BOM and NOAA. Maybe it'll all hit the fan soon??
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Post by acidohm on Sept 10, 2015 18:24:58 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 10, 2015 18:52:25 GMT
Don't count on it. This El Nino is it's own.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 10, 2015 19:09:36 GMT
Their temperature and precipitation forecasts seem to be at odds with those of 'the Old Farmer' and Joe Bastardi. So I guess we'll see. "Maybe it'll all hit the fan soon??" We may be able to gauge the results by the 'smells' emanating from the fan. May have to sniff around the perfume that may be applied in Paris.
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 10, 2015 19:22:00 GMT
This is a central Pacific El Nino. The Humbolt Current remains strong and cold. Wouldn't surprise me to see 100% catch next spring.
As I said, this is an El Nino all its own.
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Post by acidohm on Sept 10, 2015 19:49:57 GMT
I agree Sig, it is catching everyone out!
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 12, 2015 23:00:10 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Sept 13, 2015 5:36:49 GMT
That is really pretty cool! The 97 nino really does stand out on this graphic.
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Post by Ratty on Sept 14, 2015 7:13:12 GMT
[ Snip ] That is really pretty cool! The 97 nino really does stand out on this graphic. It's easy to do when you know what's happened.
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Post by acidohm on Sept 14, 2015 9:23:06 GMT
Saved a lot of money on models!!!
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 14, 2015 15:23:34 GMT
Saved a lot of money on models!!! Yep ... but the floor show used to be spectacular. We can check out the new model line prancing down the catwalk in Paris! Am also wondering if the new 'tamperature' inputs are occurring. Would they dare? If so, will they be harder to find, prove and falsify? I'm trying to avoid prejudicing my opinion ... but ... It's terrible when you EXPECT fraud.
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Post by icefisher on Sept 16, 2015 20:51:54 GMT
Saved a lot of money on models!!! Yep ... but the floor show used to be spectacular. We can check out the new model line prancing down the catwalk in Paris! Am also wondering if the new 'tamperature' inputs are occurring. Would they dare? If so, will they be harder to find, prove and falsify? I'm trying to avoid prejudicing my opinion ... but ... It's terrible when you EXPECT fraud. I wouldn't call it fraud. I would tend to call it bias. Early in my apprenticeship I worked on a litigation support team in a dispute over valuation. The competing valuation models were big for those days. Scores of Lotus 123 spreadsheets rolling up longterm investment projects with profits coming back over a period of decades. Nothing fraudulent about any of the models just a very very wide difference of opinion on interest rates, inflation, sales rates, costs, prices, and taxes. Each of the adjustments to the temperature records are almost certainly things like switching from things like Hadcrut 3 to Hadcrut 4 where warming rates of the poles are computed in part using models and that the inspiration for doing it was the belief (results of models) that the poles were warming faster than the rest of the globe. We have seen stuff like choosing different extrapolation methods for spreading temperatures from the measured point to the vast majority of the world where no measurement has been taken. Operations taken based upon the result of a model that shows the extrapolation method gets closer to the "expected" result. Where the real problem is is in the "king making" through the funding processes from the government(s) and the attacks on researchers that do not toe the party line. Scientists can have differing opinions which is OK, but what you want is a variety of opinions to identify where the uncertainties might reside. Worrisomely we have given up a substantial amount of our freedoms to a very flawed and sometimes corrupt process. When two individuals have different opinions it gets sorted out in court. Unfortunately our courts do not do a whole lot to protect individuals from governments except in the specific and limited areas granted by the constitution. So the only court we have access to is the court of public opinion and there it seems the "small guy" or "minority" takes it in the shorts. Fraud and conspiracy doesn't seem to quite define whats going on here. Corruption for sure, where it exists, but there is still another larger much more poorly defined problem. . . .much like the one Eisenhower warned us about. He talked of the military-industrial complex. Not all bad, they helped win the war but its more about defending freedom for everybody from trumped up and/or overstated risks, mostly about health of one thing or another.
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Post by Ratty on Sept 17, 2015 12:23:38 GMT
Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets Icefisher. Like a Symphony to me .... Are you still able to get about unaided?
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Post by icefisher on Sept 17, 2015 21:07:35 GMT
Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets Icefisher. Like a Symphony to me .... Are you still able to get about unaided? Most of the time. A few years ago I had to use a cane for a while from a sciatic attack. For me running means slightly quicker walking. We used Word Perfect when we had to write a letter or memo so I never used Symphony
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Post by Ratty on Sept 17, 2015 22:15:43 GMT
Aha, memories. WordPerfect, WordStar, luggable computers .... 12" floppy disks. LINK: The Good Old Days?
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