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Post by Ratty on Sept 17, 2015 23:44:52 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 18, 2015 1:14:52 GMT
You were done for when Turnbull showed up.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 18, 2015 3:12:15 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Sept 18, 2015 15:36:52 GMT
(Being devils advocate)
Define 'El Nino'
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 18, 2015 18:44:03 GMT
Aha, memories. WordPerfect, WordStar, luggable computers .... 12" floppy disks. LINK: The Good Old Days?We used WordStar en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WordStarBack on subject I'm going out on a limb and predicting we'll have an El Nino this year. Anyone? Where will this elusive event occur?
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Post by acidohm on Sept 18, 2015 20:35:01 GMT
You might have some sort if micro climate there Code. ...could be rigged.
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Post by Ratty on Sept 18, 2015 20:42:48 GMT
South Eastern Australia is feeling the brunt of the El Nino now; the water has become too hot for the seals: Hot Seal
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Post by acidohm on Sept 18, 2015 21:05:23 GMT
OMG....what is it on....a bubble of methane gas??!?!
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Post by icefisher on Sept 18, 2015 22:02:41 GMT
OMG....what is it on....a bubble of methane gas??!?! Boiler Rock!
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 18, 2015 22:34:47 GMT
(Being devils advocate) Define 'El Nino' The 'Boy Child' a period when the anchovy harvest off Northern Chile and Peru failed. It has not failed this year, in fact the anchovy catch was excellent; so by the fishermen's metric, there has been no El Nino. Don't let that stop the excitement in the run up to COP15 though. However, it does raise the question that el Nino's as currently defined may not have been reported in the past. So any pattern matching from Anchovy harvests to satellite metrics will be flawed. I am sure that the climate 'science' community will hide any decline though
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 19, 2015 2:22:04 GMT
And if you believe the story we can expect a solid 1C drop on the other side. Lets hope we see a solid rise before then because 1C down from here would not be fun. Regarding Abbott and Turnbull, Turnbull will have a greater chance of making it through the next election and that would reduce the CAGW frenzy in Australia. Abbott may be warm lite but he was a twit.
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Post by acidohm on Sept 19, 2015 5:58:03 GMT
(Being devils advocate) Define 'El Nino' The 'Boy Child' a period when the anchovy harvest off Northern Chile and Peru failed. It has not failed this year, in fact the anchovy catch was excellent; so by the fishermen's metric, there has been no El Nino. Don't let that stop the excitement in the run up to COP15 though. However, it does raise the question that el Nino's as currently defined may not have been reported in the past. So any pattern matching from Anchovy harvests to satellite metrics will be flawed. I am sure that the climate 'science' community will hide any decline though Exactly my point Nautonnier....El nino is not just a big warm patch. ...its something people felt before satellites. ..at the moment. ..not much if this. .
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Post by graywolf on Sept 19, 2015 9:48:04 GMT
Well it can drive a mild winter across NW Europe this year!!!! With millions about to be sat in tent towns and reallocation camps we do not need a wicked cold winter? If one drowned child flipped opinion then what will bodies frozen to the earth drive?
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 19, 2015 17:05:13 GMT
Well it can drive a mild winter across NW Europe this year!!!! With millions about to be sat in tent towns and reallocation camps we do not need a wicked cold winter? If one drowned child flipped opinion then what will bodies frozen to the earth drive? We all know the real threat is cold, not warmth Graywolf.
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Post by icefisher on Sept 19, 2015 17:43:23 GMT
The 'Boy Child' a period when the anchovy harvest off Northern Chile and Peru failed. It has not failed this year, in fact the anchovy catch was excellent; so by the fishermen's metric, there has been no El Nino. Don't let that stop the excitement in the run up to COP15 though. However, it does raise the question that el Nino's as currently defined may not have been reported in the past. So any pattern matching from Anchovy harvests to satellite metrics will be flawed. I am sure that the climate 'science' community will hide any decline though Exactly my point Nautonnier....El nino is not just a big warm patch. ...its something people felt before satellites. ..at the moment. ..not much if this. . Most of what we "think" we know about El Nino is based on only a few decades of of halfway decent data. Before 1980 basically no satellite information. Before 1950 no El Nino information except anecdotal. Fishing catch records are still pretty poor on a global basis and even in the US those records fall off considerably before 1980. As a waterman, my observations are that we have multiple cycles. PDO being the multi-decadal cycle, and ENSO being a multi-year cycle. Its likely, in my opinion, that neither cycle is predictable in period or length. There might be an astrometeorological connection but I remain unconvinced that the period or intensity of these oscillations are necessarily caused by astronomical phenomena. Though I am fairly well convinced that solar changes are influencing the oscillations. But I have no idea how deep that influence goes. For example, in the recent warm period that started around 1980 west coast US anchovy populations gradually declined and sardine populations greatly increased over time. They hit a peak a few years ago and have been in decline since as anchovies have become more populated. This year NOAA was required for the first time to close the commercial sardine fishery for, I think, the entire year, or at least most of it. Hmmmm, we have had two of the biggest warm water years (El Nino for the west coast of the US if not elsewhere) and they have to not open the "warm" water sardine fishery in the second year! Southern California is known as a mixing zone between two major water masses. The cold water from the California current and a strong push from the south during El Nino years. Fishing has been tremendous. Cold current rockfish have been good, better than a decade ago but off from recent years, and tropical pelagics have been off the hook with catches of warm water fish we have not seen in at least 6 decades. But the switch from a warm water sardine dominated regime and an anchovy dominated one has moved as if nothing were happening. Its a real mystery. Interestingly, the water conditions here are probably as warm as seen in 6 decades. Most likely the last time the water was this warm in southern California was 1939 when a hurricane was able to track up the warm water push and hit Long Beach. No hurricane has been able to do that since 1939 with all that head this way dying out in the cool water between it and Long Beach. It does seem to some extent that the longer multidecadal oscillations influence the effects of the ENSO oscillations. Changes in base water temperature to a cooling regime in the Pacific would promote anchovy growth that may well survive the effects of a single El Nino and continue to grow if the basic multi-decadal oscillations stays in effect. Such is the nature of anecdotal data. Its hard to draw a lot of conclusions from the "Boy Child" of fisherman recollection as its not a cold hard measured metric. Thats also the problem with the boy childs calling the shots in academia these days.
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