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Post by sigurdur on Oct 19, 2015 15:16:54 GMT
Ok. What effect will the Cromwell current have on this El Nino? Looking at the cool water pool to the west, will this current bring a strong La Nina?
The Humboldt current hasn't seem to slow. That goes north on the west side of South America, allowing the anchovies to flourish.
Speculation on my part, but it looks like this El Nino is going to rapidly dissipate.
Have not looked at what the Kelvin waves are doing, but one would have to think that they are cool.
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Post by flearider on Oct 19, 2015 22:35:07 GMT
look at the temps around Indonesia there minus 3to 5 deg lower than normal that's a lot of cold .. yes the nino will phase out by late dec .. just wish there was no early melt in Antarctica it would be well on its way out now .. with no power behind the early melt it's drifted over and up .. so that cold will have to take the long way round ..
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 19, 2015 23:04:06 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Oct 20, 2015 18:22:53 GMT
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center cant bring themselves to continue the hype with unrealistic stats.... This El Nino will go down as comparable to 09/10, but nothing like '97....
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Post by acidohm on Oct 20, 2015 18:57:19 GMT
Ok. What effect will the Cromwell current have on this El Nino? Looking at the cool water pool to the west, will this current bring a strong La Nina? The Humboldt current hasn't seem to slow. That goes north on the west side of South America, allowing the anchovies to flourish. Speculation on my part, but it looks like this El Nino is going to rapidly dissipate. Have not looked at what the Kelvin waves are doing, but one would have to think that they are cool. This is from Noaa ncep yesterday Sig....I (probably arrogantly) called an end to El Nino by November a few months ago, so not quite....maybe during november Totally agree with what your saying about the Cromwell current, and from what i understand about downwelling kelvin waves....the El Nino is fed by warm water held by trade winds in the west sloshing back east, well. there is NO warm water out west!! Consistantly the west coast America produces cold pulses of water (from the Humbolt current??)
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 20, 2015 23:45:05 GMT
Yep!
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Post by flearider on Oct 21, 2015 0:37:20 GMT
look at the temps around Indonesia there minus 3to 5 deg lower than normal that's a lot of cold .. yes the nino will phase out by late dec .. just wish there was no early melt in Antarctica it would be well on its way out now .. with no power behind the early melt it's drifted over and up .. so that cold will have to take the long way round .. Flea, I agree but i think those cold temps won't affect this year. I'm hoping for big cold next year. that cold is what I hope will drive a line thru the 2 heat patches before there forced together it has already move the heat away from Alaska .. now if the cold pushes hard it will force the heat down by baja in turn it will reinforce the nino which is not bad but means it will be here for another 4 or 5 months . i'm not sure now whether the Antarctic melt will now have enough force to push up thru s/a ..we will see in mid nov
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 21, 2015 11:35:53 GMT
View AttachmentView AttachmentNOAA's Climate Prediction Center cant bring themselves to continue the hype with unrealistic stats.... This El Nino will go down as comparable to 09/10, but nothing like '97.... The hype need only continue until Paris in December. Expect more and more stridency and hysteria in the next 8 weeks it will make Al Gore's work look introvert. There are huge riches and political power at stake - nothing will be spared in the attempt to get something out of the Paris COP.
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Post by graywolf on Oct 21, 2015 14:05:28 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 21, 2015 14:23:31 GMT
Thanks. A lot of "wishes" in that link.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 21, 2015 14:24:45 GMT
If California got 20" of rain a year it wouldn't be a desert.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 21, 2015 19:15:28 GMT
I see they are talking, but what i actually hear is something like this....
"And hear we have a GRAPH...made by...someone, which has a BIG curve over a sunny bit.....and here is some red bits on a ChArT...yeah, and did i mention the winds...they are probably going that way...so....MASSIVE!!!!"
something like that.....
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Post by icefisher on Oct 21, 2015 19:29:16 GMT
Thanks. A lot of "wishes" in that link. Well its hopelessly out of date also being a forecast from back in August. The only thing correct about is it will be a major El Nino (major or super depending upon how hard you want to market it) There is a fairly clear dividing line between weak and major El Ninos based upon peak values and lengths of the event. Both the NOAA NCEP CFS model and the IRI/CPC model consensus predicts that El Nino has peaked and will decline to neutral by AMJ in the spring. Further both prediction tracks are biased warm compared to the official ENSO index being utilized by NOAA, misleading many to believe this El Nino is scoring high in the record. NOAA NOAA NCEP CFS Model is biased .25degC warm for the most recent official index result and the CPC which plays warmer on the scale does so mostly by being biased by .5 deg C over the official index. Plotting out a correction suggests that if the models are correct about peaking and upcoming decline the official index should peak in SON (index value that will come out in early December) at somewhere around 1.9 and 2.0 degrees making this El Nino scoring. If that occurs it would score as the 4th strongest El Nino in the 65 year old record of El Ninos out of about 20 total El Ninos. Currently it sits as a peak value by my count as 8th strongest. This one according to current predictions and adjusted for bias is judged likely to be or tie for fourth place in the record. However, the ENSO consortium that NOAA kowtows to and run out of Global Warming Alarmism headquarters at GISS and Columbia University, with the bias is still being suggested as the largest El Nino in history. NOAA models seem to have split the bias baby in half selecting half way between the official index and the alarmist model driven index. . . .a politically driven compromise between the integrity of civil servant scientists of NOAA and politics? Well thats my take anyway and I have a lot of experience with both groups. Obviously a compromise between the induced biases of the variable money spigots of the "grant" world and the comparative steady money spigot of the world of civil service. What happens for the following summer to winter is off the current prediction chart window and because of the spring predictability barrier while predictions will be formed of next summer starting in a couple of months, it won't mean anything until next July which will be when the skill level starts accumulating for the 2016/17 fall and winter. What is clear is Astromet missed his bet on this one. While this El Nino for at least US interests is already an official El Nino, by the end of November it should certainly be a world wide recognized El Nino. p.s. We have even far less experience with ENSO as a climate influencer for the rest of the world. Science on this was pretty much confined to "fish science". Will ENSO fill the rivers of California for the salmon runs? It was completely off the radar in 1988 for the growing climate science community. It did not become anything of a climate factor until 2009 as the pause reached more than a decade, a value considered impossible back in 1988. So the effect of multi-decadal oceanic oscillations on affecting ENSO may have been completely obliterated by solar cycle 19 still the strongest solar cycle in the solar record. We may know nothing still of the impact of a new climate regime, if one is occurring, even on the amount of water that finds itself in salmon runs this winter.
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Post by douglavers on Oct 21, 2015 20:08:23 GMT
Going back to the video, I thought the salient phrase was "We just don't know".
Settled science?
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 21, 2015 23:04:15 GMT
Could the large pools of cool water be offsetting this El Nino? Resulting in such a slow hookup with the atmosphere?
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