|
Post by Ratty on Nov 11, 2015 12:48:26 GMT
So, that's what contributed to my toenail problem. It's starting to look Summery over Oz ( LINK) although there are parts where it just will not rain. Supports my "rain begets rain" theory.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Nov 12, 2015 15:50:02 GMT
I was looking at the winds in the Pacific to see what if any coupling there was with the putative El Nino and noticed how similar the wind patterns are in the South Atlantic and the South Pacific. Both are south easterly with a swing to South westerly as they reach the ICTZ so the coast of Africa and Central America have similar looking wind patterns It seems too much of a coincidence that they are so alike - there must be a common reason for it.
|
|
dh7fb
New Member
Posts: 25
|
Post by dh7fb on Nov 12, 2015 15:58:10 GMT
These are the trade winds and the common reason is solar heating and revolving earth :-)
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Nov 12, 2015 16:29:51 GMT
Coriolis force
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Nov 12, 2015 17:37:49 GMT
These are the trade winds and the common reason is solar heating and revolving earth :-) Yes I understand that. But they vary, much to the excitement of the El Nino groupies who were expecting (praying for) a change to all Westerlies in the pacific. I was surprised to see the same veer to South westerlies close to the ICTZ alongside the coasts of both Africa and Central America while the main winds further South and West were still South easterlies on both oceans. The trade-winds are not 'always' like that if it was due to Coriolis force they would always be backing South easterly to easterly. This is not even geostrophic, as the winds are veering too far. Just thought it was interesting that whatever was causing it was the almost identical in Atlantic off Africa and Pacific off Central America.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Nov 12, 2015 22:15:02 GMT
I think it is related to the low sun cycle. Do I have proof? Nope, but I think the strat has an influence. And we know the sun has a large influence in the strat.
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on Nov 13, 2015 0:33:46 GMT
These are the trade winds and the common reason is solar heating and revolving earth :-) Yes I understand that. But they vary, much to the excitement of the El Nino groupies who were expecting (praying for) a change to all Westerlies in the pacific. I was surprised to see the same veer to South westerlies close to the ICTZ alongside the coasts of both Africa and Central America while the main winds further South and West were still South easterlies on both oceans. The trade-winds are not 'always' like that if it was due to Coriolis force they would always be backing South easterly to easterly. This is not even geostrophic, as the winds are veering too far. Just thought it was interesting that whatever was causing it was the almost identical in Atlantic off Africa and Pacific off Central America. It seems to be related to monsoonal flows and the Coriolis effect. As the ICTZ moves north as it is now the winds shift direction due to the Coriolis effect north of the equator and the shift in both the ICTZ and the winds may be related to monsoonal wind pattern causes. In your earth link you can plainly see the ICTZ off central America at about 10 degrees North latitude. Apparently the same occurs when the ICTZ moves south of the equator for the winds in the trade winds in the northern hemisphere. Generally monsoonal flows are created via differentials of cooling and warming between the ocean and land so the strongest movement for the wind shift being noted is near the western shores of south America and Africa. The north African monsoon is considered to be a significant climate shift changing the Sahara from green to dry over long periods of time some consider to be in time with changes in the earth's orbital posture. Off Africa the ICTZ trough appears at about 6 to 7 degrees north latitude so it might be expected to have a weaker shift which it does. More evidence that this is a surface wind anomaly associated with the trough formed by the ICTZ is shifting the Earth "view" up to the 850hPa and the effect completely disappears. I am not sure I am right on this though so perhaps somebody can come up with a clear credible source and perhaps a better explanation of the role of the Monsoons and the Coriolis Effect.
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Nov 14, 2015 22:37:45 GMT
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Nov 14, 2015 23:44:31 GMT
OOOOOPS!
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Nov 15, 2015 11:32:41 GMT
I get the distinct impression that the current climate 'scientists' and some forecasters think that El Nino's are cookie cutter events that are always precisely the same. Despite only having seen a few of them they have created precise areas over the Pacific and created pretty formulae so if this adds up to that we will get this much rain/snow/drought in this other precise region. It is difficult to comprehend the linear thinking of these people does nature always precisely repeat itself - ever? Even people like Bob Tisdale are at it with graphs of precise values and projections based on only a very few examples. Where are the strong Westerlies across the Pacific? That are supposed to instigate the Kelvin wave of hot surface water from the Indonesian side of the Pacific? Look at the strange distorted shape of the ICTZ at the moment - does anyone see anything linear? Can you really assess the strength of an El Nino based on the pressure differential between Darwin and Tahiti? How many occasions have been used to develop that theory? Would anyone call that a good statistical sample? It is no wonder that nobody can forecast an El Nino BTW I take back the comment on Coriolis force from previous the veer to the South West winds occurs after the winds cross the equator. So the ICTZ is the location of the start of the Hadley cell convection drawing in winds but it is not on the equator. So winds drawn in toward it when it is North of the equator will initially back South easterly as they approach the equator but once across the equator will veer South westerly if there is no weather system to influence them. This means that as the ICTZ crosses the equator as it will, the Coriolis force will counter any Westerlies and this El Nino could fade.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Nov 16, 2015 15:35:48 GMT
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Nov 16, 2015 16:23:40 GMT
Are we really seeing biggest on record? Earth.nullschool.net doesn't show quite what I would expect. Look at the currents.
|
|
|
Post by RicksFormula on Nov 16, 2015 16:37:22 GMT
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 16, 2015 16:56:42 GMT
This things going to remove a bunch of heat as the sun gradually goes quiet..
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on Nov 16, 2015 18:07:20 GMT
|
|