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Post by sigurdur on Nov 4, 2015 14:51:59 GMT
3.4 is now in 'super' territories...... funny how you guys are not really seeing what is going on? What will you make of two ,back to back record warm years? I guess you'll be too focused on Nina and its temps to really notice ( until you use it as the start of the new 'pause' in warming hereafter ....) The difference between your view and mine is you hope it warms so the projections can be verified. I hope it warms so human beings will benefit. This El Nino has not hooked up, and it appears it won't. A lost opportunity for enhanced warmth. The downside is will the following La Nina hook up and cause worldwide pandemonium.
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Post by icefisher on Nov 4, 2015 16:04:48 GMT
3.4 is now in 'super' territories...... funny how you guys are not really seeing what is going on? What will you make of two ,back to back record warm years? I guess you'll be too focused on Nina and its temps to really notice ( until you use it as the start of the new 'pause' in warming hereafter ....) Back to back record warm years? LOL! First out of the gate you have to select a temperature record completely controlled and rewritten by "hide the decline" Phil Jones. Nothing else agrees! Second of all. The records even if accepted as records are more consistent with alternative theories of natural warming than they are with manmade warming, namely the pause continues with records barely above records set nearly 2 decades ago. Third, we should expect a significant new record if there is any manmade warming in the system in the coming as this El Nino is probably the biggest since 1939. We don't know how big the 1939 El Nino was but it was big enough to have allowed the only tropical storm to hit the west of coast of the continental US ever. Fourth, if this El Nino does not produce a new record year next year that shatters the old record by at least .2degC the warming slope for the past two decades would be less than .1degC/decade putting us on the blistering pace of one degree warming over a century, the rate estimated for CO2 in the atmosphere without any conjured up feedback. A rate one third of that predicted and rate that would erode on the next step you have predicted. Fifth, natural warming has been shown to occur at rates of .2degC per decade elsewhere in the historical record at least until Phil Jones started tampering with the data and feeding the original data to his dog. Sixth, who cares if it warms? Heck 6,000 years ago the Arctic ice extent was open to the pole on the Greenland north coast. 2,000 years ago Britains kicked back in their vineyards like the French royalty does today in theirs. 2,000 years ago the southwestern US indian tribes live in lush subtropical valleys enjoying the kind of moisture that only comes from a warmer climate. 1,000 years ago the Vikings found a land they called Greenland and start moving their farm families there. All this was happening before we entered the Little Ice Age we are apparently still in. To get excited by today's climate as being "unprecedented" you have to wear blinders regarding the world around you and have a hair Chicken Little trigger. Bottom line Greywolf, the effect of our current rate of dumping life giving CO2 into the atmosphere has been over ridden by nature easily. Nature apparently has several shoes it can drop and immediately following any effects of the current El Nino will come solar minimum and a La Nina. One has to be a complete panic to not have the patience to see what that brings. And if I were Sigurdur I would be down on my hands and knees daily praying for more warmth to come as it is I am not quite praying for it but I would view it as a welcome addition to the family.
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Post by icefisher on Nov 4, 2015 16:54:22 GMT
3.4 is now in 'super' territories...... 3.4? Source please What Graywolf means is that ENSO sector Nino 3.4 (area bounded by 5deg south latitude, 5deg north latitude, 120deg west longitude, and 165 deg west longitude has an ocean surface temperature anomaly of 2.7degC. This is not that unusual. Further the Monday Enso briefing shows the current warm wave peak is past for the section between 165deg west and about 130deg west meaning that it is not likely going to hold that high for much longer. For such a current number to become an official ENSO peak it needs to be sustained for 3 calendar months. The 1997/8 El Nino sustained this level of warmth for 16 weeks. We are 2 weeks into it now. Another major difference in 1997, Sectors Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 which gives a better picture of the sustainability of the 3.4 sector were 1.3deg and .4 deg warmer in 1997 than now. In 1997/8 Nino 1+2 spent a year higher than its been for a week this time around. June 1997 to June 1998. As a result the models do not agree with Graywolf he is just doing his Chicken Little dance stirring the pot.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 5, 2015 3:38:53 GMT
Yep, and one the the potential reasons the El Nino hasn't hooked up with the Atmosphere. It just isn't big enough.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 5, 2015 15:13:02 GMT
El Niño is the strong warm-water mass in the Pacific that can sometimes yield strong winter snow totals, especially in the southern half of the western United States. And there's a good chance that this winter will be a strong El Niño. It just hasn't really gotten going yet. ski.curbed.com/archives/2015/11/el-nino-california-snow.php
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 5, 2015 15:17:13 GMT
El Niño is the strong warm-water mass in the Pacific that can sometimes yield strong winter snow totals, especially in the southern half of the western United States. And there's a good chance that this winter will be a strong El Niño. It just hasn't really gotten going yet. ski.curbed.com/archives/2015/11/el-nino-california-snow.phpDo we have to hold our breath?
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 5, 2015 17:56:49 GMT
Not holding my breath Look at Earth.nullschool.net does anyone see the westerlies that are meant to be there to sustain the El Nino? I can't There is some North Westerly wind and some L&V near Central America but for the Pacific it's looking easterlies all the way across.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 5, 2015 18:18:51 GMT
Yep
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Post by acidohm on Nov 5, 2015 19:07:56 GMT
Not holding my breath Look at Earth.nullschool.net does anyone see the westerlies that are meant to be there to sustain the El Nino? I can't There is some North Westerly wind and some L&V near Central America but for the Pacific it's looking easterlies all the way across. This is why the ssta are not rooted to the Americas. ...this is the biggest modoki nino EVA!!!!!!
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Post by icefisher on Nov 5, 2015 20:39:32 GMT
Not holding my breath Look at Earth.nullschool.net does anyone see the westerlies that are meant to be there to sustain the El Nino? I can't There is some North Westerly wind and some L&V near Central America but for the Pacific it's looking easterlies all the way across. This is why the ssta are not rooted to the Americas. ...this is the biggest modoki nino EVA!!!!!! In this case "EVA" is post 1979. ENSO goes back to 1950 but with a lot less data. Scientists no doubt stopped back calculating there due to insufficient data. Only since satellites have we had a full set of sensors on the Nino regions. Underlying cycles may start years in advance of the temperature effect like a sine wave that is rising but it still below the mid point in the cycle. That is something that can be expected for objects with huge momentum's and heat capacities. So if we assume our data is limited to 1979 and the cycle is 72 years long. From the standpoint of historical data comparison the comparison year this year is 1943 and as we can see in the surface temperature record (still there despite many attempts to eliminate it) 1944 was the record warmth year and 1945 ushered in a lot of cooling. To Astromet's credit he has been talking about the 72 year cycle in here for years. The big test nears!! However, the sun is not in phase with Astromet's 72 year cycle. Perhaps he can explain why. Solar minimum hit in 1944 and cooling commenced in 1945. This time it appears solar minimum will not occur until sometime between 2019 and 2021.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 7, 2015 1:31:48 GMT
This is why the ssta are not rooted to the Americas. ...this is the biggest modoki nino EVA!!!!!! In this case "EVA" is post 1979. ENSO goes back to 1950 but with a lot less data. Scientists no doubt stopped back calculating there due to insufficient data. Only since satellites have we had a full set of sensors on the Nino regions. Underlying cycles may start years in advance of the temperature effect like a sine wave that is rising but it still below the mid point in the cycle. That is something that can be expected for objects with huge momentum's and heat capacities. So if we assume our data is limited to 1979 and the cycle is 72 years long. From the standpoint of historical data comparison the comparison year this year is 1943 and as we can see in the surface temperature record (still there despite many attempts to eliminate it) 1944 was the record warmth year and 1945 ushered in a lot of cooling. To Astromet's credit he has been talking about the 72 year cycle in here for years. The big test nears!! However, the sun is not in phase with Astromet's 72 year cycle. Perhaps he can explain why. Solar minimum hit in 1944 and cooling commenced in 1945. This time it appears solar minimum will not occur until sometime between 2019 and 2021. It is certain that there are many cycles. Others are linking the sidereal cycles of the moon to weather see: * Tides, Vectors, Scalars, Arctic Flushing, and Resonance* Why Weather has a 60 year Lunar beatI haven't looked but it may be that these lunar cycles were not in synchronization with the Solar, or with the thermohaline current etc. What if this time all is in synch, including the Atlantic and even magnetic field changes. There is not one control knob but several, let's just hope that the synchronization is not enough to move the climate state to the glaciation attractor.
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Post by nonentropic on Nov 7, 2015 19:07:16 GMT
Just spent a few days in Sydney and can report that the east of Australia is experiencing their wettest drought on record.
They can't actually say that the predicted or current El Nino is not going to plan.
A friend is complaining about excess growth in the Hunter Valley grapevines etc.
Getting silly.
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Post by acidohm on Nov 7, 2015 19:56:04 GMT
Just spent a few days in Sydney and can report that the east of Australia is experiencing their wettest drought on record. They can't actually say that the predicted or current El Nino is not going to plan. A friend is complaining about excess growth in the Hunter Valley grapevines etc. Getting silly. Did you see that dramatic shelf cloud Nonentropic??
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Post by douglavers on Nov 11, 2015 11:18:29 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 11, 2015 11:43:43 GMT
But this cannot be true! It is the largest El Nino ever in the history of the planet! We have it on all sorts of authority and the media are hysterical, tame weather men on TV are blaming everything from shortage of pumpkins to ingrown toenails on it, and the display panels for Paris have already been printed!
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