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Post by sigurdur on Dec 26, 2015 14:45:00 GMT
On phone. The site is on my puter.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 26, 2015 16:10:49 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 26, 2015 16:13:25 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 26, 2015 16:23:07 GMT
Dang.........I don't remember the source anymore. Part of my reading. Thought it was an excellent graph, so saved it to my climate files. Does someone see something wrong with it that I didn't pick up on? I just think it's interesting and wanted to see the text.... I only saved the graphic, as I have a somewhat limited understanding of the affects etc.
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Post by Jackie on Dec 27, 2015 7:02:43 GMT
Any thoughts on precipitation outlooks for California in 2017? I was browsing through some of the threads on this website, I could be here for days trying to pin down theories and opinions. Thanks in advance.
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Post by icefisher on Dec 27, 2015 20:11:56 GMT
Any thoughts on precipitation outlooks for California in 2017? I was browsing through some of the threads on this website, I could be here for days trying to pin down theories and opinions. Thanks in advance. I assume you are referring to the 2016/17 rainfall season. Seems most likely we will either have neutral or La Nina conditions which would suggest something between normal and drought. Various solar theories would suggest that upon the completion of this El Nino the southwest most likely would be leaning toward drought. The recent article by Dr Richard Lindzen on WUWT states that the theories of Svensmark, Shaviv, and thingyinson have not been ruled out. There is also an emerging consensus among solar physicists that the next solar cycle will also be on the weak side, and the solar record that shows temperature nadirs during the Maunder, Dalton, and 20th century minimums. Combine that with basic greenhouse theory that wet and warm go together as does dry and cold. An examination of ENSO versus solar cycles shows that during the La Nina dominate period of 1950 to 1979 El Ninos popped up just before solar minimums then in the El Nino dominate period La Ninas showed up at solar minimum. Interesting huh? So its pretty hard to predict but I would suggest that the 2016/17 and maybe 17/18 will be at neutral or La Nina and an El Nino seems unlikely until probably 18/19. So this is not very sophisticated but my guess is 15/16 = wet, 16/17 = normal, 17/18 = dry
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 27, 2015 22:26:50 GMT
I agree with your analysis Icefisher. There is a hydrlogical cycle in the American Southwest. That cycle seems to have potentially breached the apex about 10 years ago. Potentially now the climate is retreating to its more normal precipitation level. About 1/2 of current wet cycle level.
One item of interest though. A Pineapple Express of magnitude seems to hit central California approx every 150 years or so. No known cause, but fully shown in paleo records. California/American SW is abt due for one of these.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 28, 2015 6:16:48 GMT
I agree with your analysis Icefisher. There is a hydrlogical cycle in the American Southwest. That cycle seems to have potentially breached the apex about 10 years ago. Potentially now the climate is retreating to its more normal precipitation level. About 1/2 of current wet cycle level. One item of interest though. A Pineapple Express of magnitude seems to hit central California approx every 150 years or so. No known cause, but fully shown in paleo records. California/American SW is abt due for one of these. Lake Central Valley could recharge a lot of aquifer. Hung around for a while in 1861(?) if I remember correctly.
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Post by icefisher on Dec 28, 2015 20:09:06 GMT
I agree with your analysis Icefisher. There is a hydrlogical cycle in the American Southwest. That cycle seems to have potentially breached the apex about 10 years ago. Potentially now the climate is retreating to its more normal precipitation level. About 1/2 of current wet cycle level. One item of interest though. A Pineapple Express of magnitude seems to hit central California approx every 150 years or so. No known cause, but fully shown in paleo records. California/American SW is abt due for one of these. Lake Central Valley could recharge a lot of aquifer. Hung around for a while in 1861(?) if I remember correctly. You are talking about Tulare Lake, historically the largest freshwater lake west of the Mississippi. Its still sort of there supporting huge amounts of riparian habitat thats great for bird hunting. Its really just a flood basin that no longer extensively floods because of dams controlling source waters and diversion of that water to one of the largest agricultural zones in the nation. Today and for many decades the demand for irrigation water has created projects to divert water into the basin from northern California's Sacramento River system so water mostly flows upstream into the basin, facilitated by the historic shallowness of Tulare Lake. The phrase for California is when it rains it pours. That fact along with the shallowness of the lake brings into question the real size of Tulare Lake.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 30, 2015 6:32:40 GMT
Lake Central Valley could recharge a lot of aquifer. Hung around for a while in 1861(?) if I remember correctly. You are talking about Tulare Lake, historically the largest freshwater lake west of the Mississippi. Its still sort of there supporting huge amounts of riparian habitat thats great for bird hunting. Its really just a flood basin that no longer extensively floods because of dams controlling source waters and diversion of that water to one of the largest agricultural zones in the nation. Today and for many decades the demand for irrigation water has created projects to divert water into the basin from northern California's Sacramento River system so water mostly flows upstream into the basin, facilitated by the historic shallowness of Tulare Lake. The phrase for California is when it rains it pours. That fact along with the shallowness of the lake brings into question the real size of Tulare Lake. This is exactly why I like reading these boards. Tulare Lake was unknown to me before a I read this... and it seems there is a lot of information about it online to read. Thanks
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 30, 2015 7:30:09 GMT
While looking at the weather over Iceland I thought I would use earth.nullschool.net and have a look at how the winds were doing over the El Nino regions. They are not 'coupled' at all. Easterly winds all the way across the Pacific now (regardless of SOI). I suspect the collapse of the El Nino will be quite rapid. Its demise will be accompanies by a deafening silence from the hysterical media.
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Post by acidohm on Dec 30, 2015 8:52:02 GMT
While looking at the weather over Iceland I thought I would use earth.nullschool.net and have a look at how the winds were doing over the El Nino regions. They are not 'coupled' at all. Easterly winds all the way across the Pacific now (regardless of SOI). I suspect the collapse of the El Nino will be quite rapid. Its demise will be accompanies by a deafening silence from the hysterical media. El Nino peaked about 3 weeks ago, or should I say ssta did, now the heat is dissipating rapidly.... Unusually, the NOAA models got it right from the start of December! ! www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-35159826This is really disgraceful, not only are they attributing large atmospheric responses to this ssta event, which seem unfounded...They go on to attribute future political instability to these unlikely events. Then! They say a future La Nina will make these instabilities worse and blame the current ssta for the La Nina too!! What an evil thing those sea temps are!! They even state that fisherman in the 1600's defined el nino conditions, without even asking how modern fisherman are doing. Surely the first step in defining a modern el nino would be to highlight the plight of the poor S American fisherman, starving in their boats at sea, pulling in empty nets!!!!!! (Not that I'd wish this on them of course!)
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 30, 2015 12:03:54 GMT
While looking at the weather over Iceland I thought I would use earth.nullschool.net and have a look at how the winds were doing over the El Nino regions. They are not 'coupled' at all. Easterly winds all the way across the Pacific now (regardless of SOI). I suspect the collapse of the El Nino will be quite rapid. Its demise will be accompanies by a deafening silence from the hysterical media. El Nino peaked about 3 weeks ago, or should I say ssta did, now the heat is dissipating rapidly.... Unusually, the NOAA models got it right from the start of December! ! www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-35159826This is really disgraceful, not only are they attributing large atmospheric responses to this ssta event, which seem unfounded...They go on to attribute future political instability to these unlikely events. Then! They say a future La Nina will make these instabilities worse and blame the current ssta for the La Nina too!! What an evil thing those sea temps are!! They even state that fisherman in the 1600's defined el nino conditions, without even asking how modern fisherman are doing. Surely the first step in defining a modern el nino would be to highlight the plight of the poor S American fisherman, starving in their boats at sea, pulling in empty nets!!!!!! (Not that I'd wish this on them of course!) You'd think that with the large weather data bases someone would have defined a set of spatial statistical measures that would define El Nino and La Nina based on strength and commonality of concurrent and following weather for sets of very specific locations in the world. No need to speculate on whether this or that event has 'hooked up' with the atmosphere. Have they so adulterated the data bases that they cannot do this?
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 30, 2015 14:58:44 GMT
Each El Nino is different, just as each La Nina is different. NOAA had indicated that Code would be skiing on dirt this winter, based on El Nino conditions. Well, if he can't find snow he isn't looking.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 31, 2015 5:09:53 GMT
Yep, as it fades into the sunset.
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