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Post by acidohm on Dec 31, 2015 8:51:11 GMT
Well.....I'm definitely sick of something.....
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 31, 2015 13:09:47 GMT
Well.....I'm definitely sick of something..... Welcome to the return of normal Acidohm.
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Post by acidohm on Dec 31, 2015 15:20:14 GMT
Uh oh.......being labelled as normal, again!! I really am sick of it Sig, headlines claiming things about the Pacific even now showing images of the ssta from 2/3 months ago....because it no longer looks impressive.. Comparisons of this El nino in June to imaged of '97 in August...because that's when IT looked most impressive. .. Comparing the region 3.4 from this year to 97.....1+2 would give the impression there is not much going on this time round.. No mention whatsoever of trade winds, SOI, fishery quotas, All of this from some of the most 'reputable' agencies the public has information distributed from. Subversive? Misleading? Over excitement? I think I can't wait till its all over, but even then suspect we'll be hearing about weather being el nino related from probably 12 months so suppose we'd better get used to it....
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 31, 2015 15:53:39 GMT
Only 12 months? Remember how long the build up was to this one? Some folks declaring an El Nino was right around the corner, that the weather was showing it.....and oh oh....wait for it......wait for it!!!
Well, the wait finally got over. Shit happens, ya know?
All this "new climate" just is NOT new! Older folks know this, well informed folks know this. The sad thing is, MOST folks don't know this and actually rely on the "press" for accurate information. That horse seems to have left the barn long ago.
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Post by acidohm on Dec 31, 2015 18:44:41 GMT
Talk of the atmosphere now cooperating with La Nina development? Will 2015 provide us with a Nino or has it's chance now past? At this point the answer is clear. YES we have an El Nino. Because......
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 31, 2015 18:57:39 GMT
At this point the answer is clear. YES we have an El Nino. Because...... Graywolf has to be right sometime.
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Post by acidohm on Dec 31, 2015 19:10:05 GMT
Graywolf has to be right sometime. Nooooooo.....it can't be
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Post by icefisher on Dec 31, 2015 19:53:39 GMT
Well the greatest climate effects from El Nino occurs about 3 months after. So with the current El Nino peaking around the first of December, peak climate effects would be expected for around the first of March.
So we still have several months of all this awaiting us. Yep balmy eastcoast but the coldest Xmas I can remember here.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 31, 2015 19:57:54 GMT
Well the greatest climate effects from El Nino occurs about 3 months after. So with the current El Nino peaking around the first of December, peak climate effects would be expected for around the first of March. So we still have several months of all this awaiting us. Yep balmy eastcoast but the coldest Xmas I can remember here. Actually, a mid pacific el nino has a different climate effect than an eastern pacific one. Shorter time span of effect for starters. Time will tell. But it isn't like this is new to the world.
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Post by Jackie on Jan 1, 2016 5:26:23 GMT
Thank you icefisher! We seem to be on the same page about this.
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Post by douglavers on Jan 2, 2016 23:18:08 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 3, 2016 1:11:08 GMT
There has been nothing "typical" about this Mokida El Nino.
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Post by tobyglyn on Jan 3, 2016 2:18:47 GMT
Yes, and look! www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-02/lake-eyre-begins-filling-with-water-after-soaking-rains/7064248This is also interesting: "The existence of water in Lake Eyre was first reported by Ross in 1869 and then by Halligan in 1922, however, their reports were dismissed as observation errors. Madigan who explored the area after a long drought in 1929 was convinced that the lake is permanently dry. The first reliable record of filling was in 1949_50, when Lake Eyre North reached a peak storage of 21 km3. This was followed by a series of minor floodings in 1953, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1963, 1967 and 1971, leading to a most significant flood event which began in 1973, reached its peak in 1974 and persisted until 1977. Lake Eyre North reached its highest recorded level of _9.09 m AHD in June 1974, and the equilibrium level of -9.5 m AHD between both lakes was achieved in October 1974. The peak combined storage was 32.5 km3." www.k26.com/eyre/the_lake/papers/lake_eyre_basics/lake_eyre_basics.html
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 3, 2016 4:17:49 GMT
In a past post on the North Atlantic Drift I had looked at salinity structures in the N. and S. Atlantic. Well, here is an oddity that perhaps someone on the site might have an opinion on. The charts below show salinity structures in the N. and S. Pacific as well. At 0-100 m depth, these do not seem to change much over time periods available from Argo. There is a minor difference between the El Nino Period 11/14-11/15 and a non-El Nino period 11/11-11/12, in that the former has a low salinity band that connects across the Pacific at 10 N. whereas the later does not. However, the N. Pacific structure is very shallow. It disappears at 400 m depth, while the other three are traceable to at least 1500 meters. So ... WHY THE DIFFERENCE???
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 3, 2016 17:32:31 GMT
Uh oh.......being labelled as normal, again!! I really am sick of it Sig, headlines claiming things about the Pacific even now showing images of the ssta from 2/3 months ago....because it no longer looks impressive.. Comparisons of this El nino in June to imaged of '97 in August...because that's when IT looked most impressive. .. Comparing the region 3.4 from this year to 97.....1+2 would give the impression there is not much going on this time round.. No mention whatsoever of trade winds, SOI, fishery quotas, All of this from some of the most 'reputable' agencies the public has information distributed from. Subversive? Misleading? Over excitement? I think I can't wait till its all over, but even then suspect we'll be hearing about weather being el nino related from probably 12 months so suppose we'd better get used to it.... You shouldn't let it bother ya Acidohm! They're just snake oil salesmen doing what they've done probably since the dawn of human time. Back in the old west, after they'd made a few people sick (or killed them) with their concoctions, they'd tar and feather em and run em out of town on a rail. But we're a kinder and gentler nation now ... we're civilizzzzzzzed!!! We have table manners!!!
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