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Post by sigurdur on Mar 21, 2015 19:41:12 GMT
Note the sharp drop off in the area of colder anomalies in just one week in the Eastern Pacific on the equator.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 21, 2015 19:42:30 GMT
Not that I wiggle watch but I note that the El Nino seems to have stalled - again. Not only that but .... The West Pacific 'warm pool' from whence the warm Kelvin waves are meant to originate - appears to have got a little chilled. So anyone looking for an El Nino is going to have to wait. I now see why NOAA rushed out their 'It's an El Nino' a few days ago, as had they waited they would have not got the headlines they wanted. It is really sad to see a once ethical and trustworthy agency descend to such media games. Actually nautonnier, the El Nino conditions of the ocean are working. IF it couples with the atmosphere is another question. Note the sharp decline in cool anomalies in just one week of observations.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 21, 2015 20:21:07 GMT
The cool is dissipating but so is the warm. Look along the US Pacific coast and compare weeks. The winds are not playing ball either. Joe Bastardi is also now saying that California may be wetter than normal.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 21, 2015 20:24:00 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 21, 2015 20:27:46 GMT
The cool is dissipating but so is the warm. Look along the US Pacific coast and compare weeks. The winds are not playing ball either. Joe Bastardi is also now saying that California may be wetter than normal. I agree there is not an atmospheric coupling to promote an El Nino. As far as California being wetter than normal, that one I have a hard time buying. But normal for this time of year there is 1/2" of rain or less, so 3/4" of rain would be wetter than normal. The California dry pattern is a result of Pacific and Atlantic Ocean coupling. This doesn't happen often, but when it does it seems fool proof. Drew Learner seems out front on this one.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 25, 2015 17:07:09 GMT
The core of the EKW pushing east is now up to 5c positive anom!!! Also the Null school wind maps appear to show the walker cell now consolidating into Nino mode ( seeing as the MJO is now headed into the Atlantic we'll not see it in the Pacific for a while now so it's all up to the behaviour of the Walker Cell?)
We will be through the spring forecast barrier soon and I think folk will be shocked at what the models then show...... a lot of fuel in the west Pacific?( as any glance at the temp profiles of the basin there shows?)
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Post by icefisher on Mar 25, 2015 18:32:21 GMT
The core of the EKW pushing east is now up to 5c positive anom!!! Also the Null school wind maps appear to show the walker cell now consolidating into Nino mode ( seeing as the MJO is now headed into the Atlantic we'll not see it in the Pacific for a while now so it's all up to the behaviour of the Walker Cell?) We will be through the spring forecast barrier soon and I think folk will be shocked at what the models then show...... a lot of fuel in the west Pacific?( as any glance at the temp profiles of the basin there shows?) Thats pretty funny Graywolf. Spring started less than a week ago. We have about 12 weeks to go where predictability has historically been in the toilet. So where are you getting your information from? Personally, I would not be shocked to see an El Nino. After all in less than a decade we have gone from climate science telling us that El Nino is the "New Normal" all the way to a record setting El Nino absence. I mean could they have been more in error than they were? Thats not to reflect on the rank and file NOAA as they have been struggling to get the message out they have been doing a lot better over the past decade than our universities have been doing. But ever since politics decided to put the universities in charge of a lot of NOAA's output that message has largely gotten lost.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 25, 2015 19:52:26 GMT
The core of the EKW pushing east is now up to 5c positive anom!!! Also the Null school wind maps appear to show the walker cell now consolidating into Nino mode ( seeing as the MJO is now headed into the Atlantic we'll not see it in the Pacific for a while now so it's all up to the behaviour of the Walker Cell?) We will be through the spring forecast barrier soon and I think folk will be shocked at what the models then show...... a lot of fuel in the west Pacific?( as any glance at the temp profiles of the basin there shows?) Graywolf: You do understand that there is more than "one" MJO" cell don't you? The MJO is virtually the same as the Rosby wave. Also, where do you see 5C+ in the Kelvin? And you still haven't answered me in that 4x the fuel stuff. We shall see, as the atmosphere is STILL not "hooking" up in El Nino mode.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 25, 2015 19:54:24 GMT
The core of the EKW pushing east is now up to 5c positive anom!!! Also the Null school wind maps appear to show the walker cell now consolidating into Nino mode ( seeing as the MJO is now headed into the Atlantic we'll not see it in the Pacific for a while now so it's all up to the behaviour of the Walker Cell?) We will be through the spring forecast barrier soon and I think folk will be shocked at what the models then show...... a lot of fuel in the west Pacific?( as any glance at the temp profiles of the basin there shows?) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation
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Post by hrizzo on Apr 1, 2015 7:44:28 GMT
Well, in summary, was there or not a 2014-2015 El Niño?
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Post by Ratty on Apr 1, 2015 8:34:12 GMT
I suspect it hid in the deep oceans.
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Post by douglavers on Apr 1, 2015 11:58:47 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 1, 2015 12:20:36 GMT
At present there is no atmospheric coupling taking place. The SST's may be indicative of an El Nino, but the atmosphere didn't get the memo.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Apr 1, 2015 13:02:48 GMT
It is my understanding that while current conditions meet the El Nino threshold, NOAA predicts a 50 - 60% chance of conditions remaining above the threshold for enough time for an actual El Nino to be declared.
I am not an expert, but a couple of thoughts...
There have been a few very strong warm phase Kelvin waves in the last year, however, As Sigurdur says, The atmosphere is not playing. I think the reason for this is that the Kelvin waves are surfacing too far West and Regions 1&2 are staying too cool for the atmosphere to get on board. Until that warm water makes it to surface off the South American coast I don't think the atmosphere will play ball and even if an official El Nino occurs, it will be a non event.
Of course with that in mind, I think Joe Bastardi is on record stating that he thinks we will see an El Nino this summer, and is also said that Southern California will get some good rain in the next 45 days. So what do I know... :-)
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Post by douglavers on Apr 2, 2015 6:04:16 GMT
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