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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 19:25:28 GMT
Graywolf: I had asked you to quantify the 4 times the volume of 'fuel'Please share with us your source or calibrations attempted? One possibility is he is multiplying it by four to account for his missed predictions of El Nino in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. Good point Icefisher............good point. If an El Nino doesn't appear this year, then he could do a 5
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 14, 2015 16:35:26 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 14, 2015 16:37:25 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 14, 2015 17:08:33 GMT
There are actually 2 areas of interest on the earth null link.
1. The pool of warm water southeast of the Galapagos. This is the remnant of the K wave that Graywolf keeps talking about. 2. The warm water just along the coast of South America.
Yes, there are small pools of cooler water there, but the warmth along the coast is indicating the upwelling of warmer water. The Humboldt Current is presently not overcoming that warmth.
We just "MAY" have an El Nino this climate year....finally.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 14, 2015 17:15:07 GMT
The SOI normally has an uptick in the Northern Hemisphere spring. The current uptick is nothing unusual. What bears watching is how high it goes, and the duration that it stays there.
For an actual El Nino to occur, with climatic effects, we need the atmosphere to couple with it. Prior to this climate year, for the past 4 climate years, we have had the physical effects noticed in the ocean, but the coupling required didn't occur.
Astromet will tell you that it is because the planets etc aren't aligning. He could very well be correct, as the "scientists/voodo folks or whatever one wants to call them", most certainly have a track record of failure.
We very well could have an El Nino this year, even tho no one in the scientific community can tell you WHY we have an El Nino.
Just like the ADO, and PDO, science has no clue why they happen. But BECAUSE they happen, and are documented to happen, they can no longer be ignored.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 14, 2015 17:17:06 GMT
(snip) With about 4 times the volume of 'fuel' than was available to the 98' Super would anyone like to take a stab at the type of event we will see should the atmosphere come out to play? Graywolf: I had asked you to quantify the 4 times the volume of 'fuel'Please share with us your source or calibrations attempted? Graywolf???
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Post by icefisher on Mar 14, 2015 19:46:00 GMT
We just " MAY" h ave an El Nino this climate year....finally. Finally is right! The break between El Ninos was of UNPRECEDENTEDlength! My Gawd! Global Cooling! We are all going to freeze to death!p.s. sorry about the above, just trying to stay clearly within the staid and enlightened standards and boundaries of modern consensus science!
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 14, 2015 21:11:21 GMT
We just " MAY" h ave an El Nino this climate year....finally. Finally is right! The break between El Ninos was of UNPRECEDENTEDlength! My Gawd! Global Cooling! We are all going to freeze to death!p.s. sorry about the above, just trying to stay clearly within the staid and enlightened standards and boundaries of modern consensus science! My monitor isn't big enough to stay within the staid and enlightened standards of modern consensus.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Mar 17, 2015 17:11:33 GMT
Graywolf: I had asked you to quantify the 4 times the volume of 'fuel'Please share with us your source or calibrations attempted? Graywolf???The "emerging El Nino" appears to be poofing into another La Nada. There is a new ENSO index out called the GWPCI. The GWPCI had spiked in the first half of March projecting a potential El Nino event, but now has returned to neutral conditions. The sudden return to ENSO neutral conditions in the past few days indicates that future El Nino conditions are becoming less likely, and spike was an aberration. The Index currently projects La Nada ENSO conditions for the foreseeable future.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 17, 2015 20:44:28 GMT
A bit of time left, but just like last year and the years before then, a potential El Nino looks less likely. Even if we want one!
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Post by billlee49 on Mar 18, 2015 0:16:42 GMT
We here in California are still eagerly awaiting evidence of the aforementioned El Nino. The dryness, and the drought, continue unabated, with that damn resilient ridge still holding sway over the eastern Pacific. Here in Central CA, we've received just south of .5" since mid-December. El Nino my a**.
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Post by icefisher on Mar 20, 2015 5:29:00 GMT
We here in California are still eagerly awaiting evidence of the aforementioned El Nino. The dryness, and the drought, continue unabated, with that damn resilient ridge still holding sway over the eastern Pacific. Here in Central CA, we've received just south of .5" since mid-December. El Nino my a**. Last year we saw El Nino ocean conditions stronger than at anytime in anybody's memory, but the climate coupling has failed to pan out. My theory of arctic ice fluctuation being coupled to EMSO did not directly hold up either(e.g. did not result in a La Nina as a result of the very low ice in 2012) but it did wash out the predictions for an El Nino for that fall continuing into the winter of the next year. The arrival of solar maximum may have been another confounding factor. Anyway its a complex system and NOAA appears far away from reliable forecasting. It does appear we are likely to have a very mild El Nino this fall and winter, one so weak it will fail to count as one in Australia. It will apparently throw Astromets prediction in the predictament I thought it might, an official El Nino in name mostly but of a total unimpressive intensity that many might not consider to be an El Nino. To reiterate that slightly differently, despite super impressive El Nino water conditions occurring throughout the eastern Pacific, climate coupling has been extremely weak. Since I have never heard of astrometeorologist extending their forecasts into the ocean until Astromet declared there would be no ENSO event until 2020, as I recall; I sort of wondered if he was not looking at this more from an atmospheric point of view. We will have to see if this year results in better than a few hundreths of degree variation on the heels of an "official", in NOAA anyway, El Nino.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 20, 2015 12:37:24 GMT
Just another repeat thought for you.
The Sun orbits the barycenter (center of mass) of the Solar system as do the planets. The position of the barycenter in relation to the Sun alters dependent on the orbit of the major planets in the system. Sometimes it is inside the Sun but it can be significantly outside the Sun. The barycenter can run retrograde through the rotating Sun or prograde with the rotation of the Sun. This will have an effect on the rotation and motion of the Sun. It is this 'wobble' in stars that is one of the methods used by astronomers to identify the presence of planets around the star.
So the Sun Hale cycles and other effects could easily be affected by this motion around the barycenter (See writings of Rhodes Fairbridge and Theodor Landscheidt)
The Earth also orbits the moving Barycenter (or falls toward it if you want to be pedantic) so the Earth's orbit is affected as is its velocity and due to all the various energy laws its Length of Day may alter relatively significantly. So to add to the tides due to the Moon acting like a continual 'pump on ocean currents and the thermohaline currents due to convective and salinity effects, we now 'slop' the system by increasing or decreasing the rate of rotation of the Earth. This may happen over a long period as the barycenter transits through then around the sun in a particular direction. So for several years the rotation of the earth may be continually accelerating (as with centripetal force) while relative to the Sun which is orbiting the same barycenter there seems to be little or no change. The momentum and inertia of the oceans will lead to changes in the deep ocean currents and in kelvin waves. I don't know if anyone has linked these kelvin waves to the changes in the velocity of the Earth due to the motion of the barycenter it would be interesting to confirm there is a correlation.
However, after all that - the above is a hypothesized mechanism for an 'astrometeorologist' to identify planetary configurations which are likely to result in major oceanic effects such as an El Nino or La Nina.
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Post by icefisher on Mar 20, 2015 18:29:38 GMT
Thats an interesting idea. My theory is based at least in part on arctic ice which could well be driven by the same mechanism. Like a Rube Goldberg machine its a real mystery how all this interconnects. How the jet streams shift, how ocean temperature profiles switch could well be a result of many paths related astronomical movements. The bigger the boat in relationship to the size of its rudder the more slowly it responds so the response on earth may be greatly varied. Stir a drink and the ice melts faster, could have a big effect on how much ice there is year to year.
The issue is really more about whether we slow down to smell the roses. Environmentalists fear headlong progress. But how are we taught to win wars and football games?
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 21, 2015 12:24:40 GMT
Not that I wiggle watch but I note that the El Nino seems to have stalled - again. Not only that but .... The West Pacific 'warm pool' from whence the warm Kelvin waves are meant to originate - appears to have got a little chilled. So anyone looking for an El Nino is going to have to wait. I now see why NOAA rushed out their 'It's an El Nino' a few days ago, as had they waited they would have not got the headlines they wanted. It is really sad to see a once ethical and trustworthy agency descend to such media games.
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