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Post by cuttydyer on Jan 25, 2015 12:20:17 GMT
I can't help but notice that here in the UK, we are having a continuous cold snap, if it lasts the next 2 weeks as metcheck is suggesting (they havn't been wrong so far...) i dont doubt this will be a well below average january (average warm, 6.9..average cold 1.3) This also is a continuation of numerous cold and exceptionally snowy winters (2008-2012/13) broken only by last winter where very wet weather that occurred first in 2012 dominated all winter 2013/14. so far...the gap in the cold coincided with the run-up to the peak in the current solar cycle. Now this is purely observation, i am no a scientist in any respect apart from layman interest, however, to my mind it seems the UK's climate in this instance is tracking the solar cycle. I fully understand that historically attempts to allign the climate with the solar cycle have not born fruit. But is it possible that once the solar cycle drops below a certain level the feedback systems which help moderate the flux in the climate fail and allow us to observe the raw effect of say UV emmisions from the sun to greater impact the weather, at least here in the UK?? Here are a few papers / articles supporting top down solar modulation of the jet / AO / NAO. The Met Office paper pdf is particularly interesting. Top down explanation Jo Nova: joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/Little ice age global & caused by solar paper: www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=147372&CultureCode=enBBC News: Scientists blame sun for global warming: news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/56456.stmPaper finds solar activity related to the polar vortex & jet stream variability: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021065/abstractPaper: Solar wind linked electrically to terrestrial mid-latitude atmospheric pressure variation: iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/045001/pdf/1748-9326_8_4_045001.pdfMet Office paper: lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2012ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/S2-01_Ineson_sorce2012.pdf The Response of Tropospheric Circulation to Perturbations in Lower-Stratospheric Temperature. Joanna D. Haigh Department of Physics, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom. Michael Blackburn Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom. Rebecca Day Department of Physics, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom: journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3472.1pdf: journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3472.1Solar impact on NH winters: www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2012/2012-39.shtmlNew Scientist: www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627564.800-quiet-sun-puts-europe-on-ice.html?full=trueMike Lockwood, Professor of Space Environment Physics: www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100422095549.htm Historical solar impact on crops etc...: www.newscientist.com/article/dn6680#.UhcfptIw2aU arxiv.org/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0411/0411165.pdfAtlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a mode of variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature field, identified by Schlesinger and Ramankutty in 1994. The AMO is basically an index of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST): www.climate4you.com/images/AMO%20GlobalAnnualIndexSince1856%20With11yearRunningAverage.gifCorona influence: www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/03/000315080417.htmSolar control of ocean oscillations: www.tims.ntu.edu.tw/Talks_detail.php?talkID=2297 hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/new-paper-finds-remarkable-correlation.htmlSun's energy influences 1,000 years of natural climate variability in North Atlantic Source: Cardiff University: www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140309150437.htmHH Lamb, in his book “Climate, History & The Modern World” reports: notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/09/28/jennifer-francis-ignores-the-evidence-of-the-past/#more-10494
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Post by acidohm on Jan 25, 2015 14:24:46 GMT
Thx cuttydyer! I will get through that in the next few days....much appreciated ?
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Post by cuttydyer on Jan 25, 2015 15:55:02 GMT
Thx cuttydyer! I will get through that in the next few days....much appreciated ? There's a period BBC documentary available on Youtube about the terrible Winter of 1963. At 45mins & 57secs the meridional jet stream is mentioned (see image below) The meridional jet in '63 was obviously not due to "Arctic amplification"; it just happens that 1963 was near solar minimum! The Big Freeze link:
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 25, 2015 18:04:47 GMT
The connection between "Arctic Amplification" and jet stream placement is a stretch at best.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 25, 2015 21:40:53 GMT
Almost to Rochester,Minnesota. Open winter for 500+ miles. This stretches to Bismarck, ND and further west. The lack of normal reflection will be adding a lot of warmth to earth. One of the reasons I think Joe is too far west with his cold.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 26, 2015 16:59:39 GMT
Hope anyone in East of USA are ok through coming storm...
What are the chances of arranging a Jan climate meeting in the area next year? Could be good to have a crowd of climate scientists explain warming in these circumstances.....
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 26, 2015 17:04:21 GMT
Not enough palm trees.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 26, 2015 20:50:12 GMT
Thx again cuttydyer, Haigh et Al paper seems to have it? Linking solar activity to placement of Hadley/ferrel cells. Very much what can be observed recently. The 'Chilling Possiblities' article is indeed fascinating....almost the genesis of all opinions held today before it became contentious! Very poignant outlook on the future from way back then. Btw, 3 out of 5 of the biggest snow storms to hit NY 'since records began'......last 18 years.....
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 26, 2015 23:20:43 GMT
It looks like after this blizzard there is another good snowfall on tap for the Northeast on Friday and then again in early February. The snowfall over the next few weeks certainly has the potential to be epic for the North East.
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Post by scpg02 on Jan 27, 2015 2:36:05 GMT
It looks like after this blizzard there is another good snowfall on tap for the Northeast on Friday and then again in early February. ThPe snowfall over the next few weeks certainly has the potential to be epic for the North East. Could you shovel some this direction?
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 27, 2015 3:17:46 GMT
It looks like after this blizzard there is another good snowfall on tap for the Northeast on Friday and then again in early February. ThPe snowfall over the next few weeks certainly has the potential to be epic for the North East. Could you shovel some this direction? I wish I could. Its been a long dry spell for most of California since the early December heavy rains. January is usually the states wettest month and it has been bone dry. Looks like another year of persistent drought.
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Post by scpg02 on Jan 27, 2015 3:35:22 GMT
Could you shovel some this direction? I wish I could. Its been a long dry spell for most of California since the early December heavy rains. January is usually the states wettest month and it has been bone dry. Looks like another year of persistent drought. Astromet said it would be dry. This is not unusual for us though. The trees often bloom during an Indian summer in January. Sometimes we have one in Feb but we always have one.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 27, 2015 3:41:53 GMT
Could you shovel some this direction? I wish I could. Its been a long dry spell for most of California since the early December heavy rains. January is usually the states wettest month and it has been bone dry. Looks like another year of persistent drought. gosh knows ocean conditions are ripe for good precipitation, but it seems the atmosphere is not cooperating as was the case for last years super el nino that did not materialize.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 27, 2015 5:18:48 GMT
I wish I could. Its been a long dry spell for most of California since the early December heavy rains. January is usually the states wettest month and it has been bone dry. Looks like another year of persistent drought. gosh knows ocean conditions are ripe for good precipitation, but it seems the atmosphere is not cooperating as was the case for last years super el nino that did not materialize. Looking at history of California, will be several more years of drought.
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Post by scpg02 on Jan 27, 2015 7:09:42 GMT
gosh knows ocean conditions are ripe for good precipitation, but it seems the atmosphere is not cooperating as was the case for last years super el nino that did not materialize. Looking at history of California, will be several more years of drought. Nah, we only have severe drought when Brown is governor.
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