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Post by nonentropic on Feb 27, 2015 3:12:10 GMT
those are simply subjects that are as yet only lightly quantified.
I studied economics in the 70's and the 90's and can say the 70's was all arm waving and 2D graphs and by the 90's it had been transformed into a rigorous mathematically based subject, clearly still work to do but getting there.
My metric is that any subject that does not express or quantify its errors is still at the arm waving stage.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 2, 2015 1:26:25 GMT
farmfutures.com/story-know-crop-insurance-pays-17-124469Jordan Shockman, who farms near LaMoure, ND, created a spreadsheet to calculate expected profit at various price and yield scenarios. Shockman figures both income from crop sales and income from Revenue Protection crop insurance, when applicable, into the final profit per acre number.
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Post by magellan on Mar 3, 2015 4:30:15 GMT
What date is the definition of an early Spring? March 19? Depends on where you are for one Magellan. The PNW has been seeing an early spring, and conditions will also improve into early March. However, the definition of an early spring in my meaning is also that Spring 2015 will be warmer and drier than the last two spring seasons, which saw an extended winter. We won't have that this spring. At this time of year, there are those, and most likely yourself, that tend to be impatient, but it is still February if you haven't noticed. So quit whining so much and be patient. You will see and experience stronger winter seasons that will bring colder spring seasons under the climate regime of global cooling in the years to come, so you had better start to learn to deal with colder, wetter and cloudier conditions anyway. As for that graphic you posted, you know, I really get sick and tired of some people posting those kind graphics that either overstate or understate true conditions while using it to support their opinions, or in this case, your whining about winter. That graphic does not reflect the true temperatures across the U.S. and if it is that cold in the PNW for instance, then what about this report? ->> www.santacruzsentinel.com/general-news/20150217/what-winter-northwest-enjoys-high-temperaturesMeteorological Spring began on March 1. There was snow in all 50 states that day, and is in every state except Florida today. Don't blame me, take it up with Roy Spencer and Joe Bastardi. www.drroyspencer.com/2015/02/snow-for-all-50-states-forecast-in-next-7-days/ www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-february-28-2015
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 6, 2015 1:39:03 GMT
Depends on where you are for one Magellan. The PNW has been seeing an early spring, and conditions will also improve into early March. However, the definition of an early spring in my meaning is also that Spring 2015 will be warmer and drier than the last two spring seasons, which saw an extended winter. We won't have that this spring. At this time of year, there are those, and most likely yourself, that tend to be impatient, but it is still February if you haven't noticed. So quit whining so much and be patient. You will see and experience stronger winter seasons that will bring colder spring seasons under the climate regime of global cooling in the years to come, so you had better start to learn to deal with colder, wetter and cloudier conditions anyway. As for that graphic you posted, you know, I really get sick and tired of some people posting those kind graphics that either overstate or understate true conditions while using it to support their opinions, or in this case, your whining about winter. That graphic does not reflect the true temperatures across the U.S. and if it is that cold in the PNW for instance, then what about this report? ->> www.santacruzsentinel.com/general-news/20150217/what-winter-northwest-enjoys-high-temperaturesMeteorological Spring began on March 1. There was snow in all 50 states that day, and is in every state except Florida today. Don't blame me, take it up with Roy Spencer and Joe Bastardi. www.drroyspencer.com/2015/02/snow-for-all-50-states-forecast-in-next-7-days/ www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-february-28-2015Again I am going to have to correct you Magellan. There was no snow in all 50 states, in fact, records for warm temperatures have been set in Seattle, San Jose, Las Vegas, Reno, Salt Lake City and Butte, Montana. In Salt Lake City, the average temperature has been 16.4 degrees above average. Other warm regions included Boise (12.2 degrees above average) and Phoenix (8 degrees above average.) Moreover, the lack of cold and snow is exacerbating California's multi-year drought I forecasted several years ago. At this time California's snowpack is currently 27 percent of normal, according to the California Department of Water Resources. In fact, water-well drillers in California's Central Valley are working 24 hours a day just to keep up with growing water demands amid the state's worst drought on record. Also, ski areas across the western U.S. have struggled to stay open this winter because of the lack of snow. So no, not all 50 states have had snow. Look at the snowpack changes as a result of the drought. Now, nationally, you can see the split of temperatures here, Also, here: Now, leading into March, as temperatures in the eastern U.S. were colder than normal, mountain temperatures in the western U.S. were far warmer than normal - ranging from 7 to 13 degrees above average, hampering the buildup of snowpack. This continues to prove my forecast for the ongoing transition from solar-forced global warming to solar-forced global cooling, as this is quite typical of a climate transitory state. You can see that example here: The arctic blast will lift, and as it does, you will witness the coming of what will be a warmer-than-average solar year in 2015, as I forecasted. The new solar year officially kicks off by the vernal equinox of March 20th.
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Post by glennkoks on Mar 6, 2015 3:03:04 GMT
Tomorrow may be the first day of 2015 void of sunspots. It seems to be going into hibernation early. We will see...
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 8, 2015 1:10:02 GMT
Tomorrow may be the first day of 2015 void of sunspots. It seems to be going into hibernation early. We will see... The Sun is nearing its own maxima within solar cycle #24 as it begins to enter solar cycle #25, which I have as its start of its Grand Minimum phase. This of course will affect crop yields worldwide as the climate change heading into global cooling will mark a significant period of climate change that will alter how farmers grow crops.
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Post by fly guy on Mar 11, 2015 23:43:57 GMT
I must say Astromet, I don't know of any other forecast out there calling for this recent warm up. Yes, they called for a warm up, 5 -6 days ago, but they were only forecasting temps in the mid 40's. We're comfortably in the mid 60's. They missed the highs by 20 degrees by only looking 4 - 5 days out. You made your forecast 6 months ago. Yesterday, Minneapolis matched an all time record high for the day and we have a real good shot at breaking the record on Friday the 13th. One week ago we had highs in the low teens, Fahrenheit, with February's average temperature being one of the coldest. It's uncanny, your accuracy. Let's hope that you are wrong for 2018 and beyond. 3 degrees centigrade temperature drop would be troublesome to say the least.
Again, I would like to thank you for all your time and willingness to make these public posts. You are an interesting and fun fellow to follow.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 12, 2015 1:03:14 GMT
I must say Astromet, I don't know of any other forecast out there calling for this recent warm up. Yes, they called for a warm up, 5 -6 days ago, but they were only forecasting temps in the mid 40's. We're comfortably in the mid 60's. They missed the highs by 20 degrees by only looking 4 - 5 days out. You made your forecast 6 months ago. Yesterday, Minneapolis matched an all time record high for the day and we have a real good shot at breaking the record on Friday the 13th. One week ago we had highs in the low teens, Fahrenheit, with February's average temperature being one of the coldest. It's uncanny, your accuracy. Let's hope that you are wrong for 2018 and beyond. 3 degrees centigrade temperature drop would be troublesome to say the least. Again, I would like to thank you for all your time and willingness to make these public posts. You are an interesting and fun fellow to follow. The part I am troubled by, certainly not the warm temps today, is the position of the Greenland High and the Icelandic Low. That along with the California high is driving the moisture stream in an erratic state. The upper mid-west has been cut off from that flow, 2nd driest last 6 months on record. (1880 and forward up here). Need that Greenland high to move.
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Post by fly guy on Mar 12, 2015 3:10:55 GMT
I must say Astromet, I don't know of any other forecast out there calling for this recent warm up. Yes, they called for a warm up, 5 -6 days ago, but they were only forecasting temps in the mid 40's. We're comfortably in the mid 60's. They missed the highs by 20 degrees by only looking 4 - 5 days out. You made your forecast 6 months ago. Yesterday, Minneapolis matched an all time record high for the day and we have a real good shot at breaking the record on Friday the 13th. One week ago we had highs in the low teens, Fahrenheit, with February's average temperature being one of the coldest. It's uncanny, your accuracy. Let's hope that you are wrong for 2018 and beyond. 3 degrees centigrade temperature drop would be troublesome to say the least. Again, I would like to thank you for all your time and willingness to make these public posts. You are an interesting and fun fellow to follow. The part I am troubled by, certainly not the warm temps today, is the position of the Greenland High and the Icelandic Low. That along with the California high is driving the moisture stream in an erratic state. The upper mid-west has been cut off from that flow, 2nd driest last 6 months on record. (1880 and forward up here). Need that Greenland high to move. Agreed, we are in the dry side of it too. Our snow is 99% gone. We have seen winters with less snow but not much less than the winter of 2014-2015. I didn't take time to find Astros' exact quote but he did forecast a dry first half of 2015 for the Upper Midwest. Would also like to thank you Sigurdur. You sure seem to enjoy researching weather phenomenons and cycles. It is always interesting to study your links that you attach.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 12, 2015 13:45:48 GMT
Time to start water skiing more Code?
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Post by nonentropic on Mar 12, 2015 18:05:57 GMT
How does he know that?
Other than the standard position of reversion to norm.
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 12, 2015 23:32:23 GMT
I must say Astromet, I don't know of any other forecast out there calling for this recent warm up. Yes, they called for a warm up, 5 -6 days ago, but they were only forecasting temps in the mid 40's. We're comfortably in the mid 60's. They missed the highs by 20 degrees by only looking 4 - 5 days out. You made your forecast 6 months ago. Yesterday, Minneapolis matched an all time record high for the day and we have a real good shot at breaking the record on Friday the 13th. One week ago we had highs in the low teens, Fahrenheit, with February's average temperature being one of the coldest. It's uncanny, your accuracy. Let's hope that you are wrong for 2018 and beyond. 3 degrees centigrade temperature drop would be troublesome to say the least. Again, I would like to thank you for all your time and willingness to make these public posts. You are an interesting and fun fellow to follow. Thanks Mark, We will see a rapid warming up that will signal a warmer-than-average year for 2015 that I forecasted over six months ago. It would be wise for farmers to take advantage of the significant crop yields this solar year (and next)before temperatures take a dive in 2017 with the official start of my climate forecast for the arrival of global cooling.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 20:56:37 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 15, 2015 1:07:38 GMT
It's a combination of overuse, poor planning and diversion of water that has been exacerbated by the multi-year drought Code. The lack of heeding forecasts along with denial of the climate transition that has been underway has really put California's farmers and ranchers in such a dire state. There are several more years of this drought I forecasted for the region to go.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 15, 2015 14:31:59 GMT
Code: The drought already has had serious consequences for the states economy.
The climate in California does appear to be sliding back closer to its "norms". The 80 years of increased precipitation looks to be a short term tick in the long term trend.
When you live in a desert, there is only so much water you can take from other areas. When that taking is maxed out, which it currently is, and the desert once again returns, a lot of strife and "Water Wars" will commence.
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