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Post by sigurdur on Apr 22, 2015 20:08:21 GMT
Wow, it is still hanging in there! Leaning like Pisa but not moving.
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Post by nonentropic on Apr 22, 2015 21:04:18 GMT
maybe a double dip thaw.
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 23, 2015 18:30:33 GMT
It now stands at 42 days on the break-up date graph below. We await with interest the final collapse Whilst the AMO was rising from 1970 to 2000, the break-up dates were occurring earlier and earlier each year. Since the AMO has ceased to rise in 2000 the early break-up trend has ceased Since 2000 Break-up dates are becoming later each year Expect longer and longer break-up dates as the AMO starts to fall Out of interest I have added below the HadCRUT4 Arctic Polar temperatures. Expect these to start falling with the falling AMO. The trend in summer time Arctic Ice extent suggests it might be starting to stabilize. Expect a modest increase over the next decade as the AMO starts to fall!
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Post by acidohm on Apr 23, 2015 18:34:39 GMT
Precarious!!! Be amazed if it lasted 7 days...to put me in winning position
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Apr 24, 2015 0:09:55 GMT
Wow, it is still hanging in there! Leaning like Pisa but not moving. It looks like there's an open channel 10 or 15 feet from the tripod all the way to shore shouldn't last much longer probably will go Very soon.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 24, 2015 0:18:54 GMT
Wow, it is still hanging in there! Leaning like Pisa but not moving. It looks like there's an open channel 10 or 15 feet from the tripod all the way to shore shouldn't last much longer probably will go Very soon. Looks like water running over the ice. I have seen ice stick for a few days even with water running over it. But it has to be soon! I don't think it will make it to my date.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 24, 2015 0:19:20 GMT
Neil has an interesting observation via the AMO and times of tripod collapse.
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 24, 2015 3:32:16 GMT
Tripod disappeared on April 23rd www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/42 days on the graph in my previous post Almost dead on the straight line forecast! A clear upward trend is becoming apparent from that low of 30 days at the turn of the century. I think that regression rate of 6 days per century may be starting to reverse. Expect +44 days over the next decade Time passes by "I'm another year older and deeper in debt" See you all again in 2016.
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Post by flearider on Apr 24, 2015 10:23:42 GMT
are we doing a pool next yr ..
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Apr 24, 2015 14:02:55 GMT
are we doing a pool next yr .. If all goes as planned, I'll be back in Alaska in four months! Yay! :-) They do allow groups to enter the pool by mail, it is $2.50 a ticket.
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Post by graywolf on Apr 26, 2015 10:24:29 GMT
So 4th earliest breakup eh? I wonder if this thread will run as long as 2013's............
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 27, 2015 5:47:37 GMT
Oops! Sorry posted this under the wrong topic Up to date graph from Real Climate
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Post by acidohm on Apr 27, 2015 16:27:21 GMT
So regression was occurring before 1945 uptick in co2 emissions.....
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Post by neilhamp on Mar 12, 2016 3:56:54 GMT
We are up and running again for 2016 www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/You need to scroll down to see the tripod Ice thickness this year suggest break may extend beyond April 24th. But unlikely to extend to 1st.May 2016 March 6 - 40.0 inches (Date of break-up?) 2015 March 5 - 34.5 Inches (Apr.24th) 2014 March 6 - 36.8 inches(Apr.23rd) 2013 Mar 7 - 48.7 Inches (May 20th) 2012 Mar 4 - 34.5 Inches (Apr 23rd) 2011 Mar 6 - 45.3 Inches (May 4th) 2010 Mar 7 - 47.0 Inches (Apr 29th) Break up dates shown in brackets.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2016 4:29:31 GMT
;)Going to be an early one this year.
How early?..................
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