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Post by nautonnier on May 6, 2017 9:11:20 GMT
If you read "The Little Ice Age How Climate Made History 1300-1850" By Brian f*gan this this news sounds "eerily familiar". It does sound very much like the start of 'The Great Famine' in 1315 where for North West Europe and Britain it rained continually for 5 or 6 years. And as I pointed out in the thread Weather 2017 a few hours ago, the jet streams are locking into what appears to be a 5 lobe Rossby wave around blocking 'omega' highs, which could have the effect not only of cooling but setting up 'atmospheric rivers' of continual rain. My standard quote from f*gan's book (my highlights): "Seven weeks after Easter in A.D. 1315, sheets of rain spread across a sodden Europe, turning freshly plowed fields into lakes and quagmires. The deluge continued through June and July, and then August and September. Hay lay flat in the fields; wheat and barley rotted unharvested. The anonymous author of the Chronicle of Malmesbury wondered if divine vengeance had come upon the land: “Therefore is the anger of the Lord kindled against his people, and he hath stretched out his hand against them, and hath smitten them.” Most close-knit farming communities endured the shortages of 1315 and hoped for a better harvest the following year. But heavy spring rains in 1316 prevented proper sowing. Intense gales battered the English Channel and North Sea; flocks and herds withered, crops failed, prices rose, and people again contemplated the wrath of God. By the time the barrage of rains subsided in 1321, over a million-and-a-half people, villagers and city folk alike, had perished from hunger and famine-related epidemics. Giles de Muisit, abbot of Saint-Martin de Tournai in modern-day Belgium, wrote, “Men and women from among the powerful, the middling, and the lowly, old and young, rich and poor, perished daily in such numbers that the air was fetid with the stench.” People everywhere despaired. Guilds and religious orders moved through the streets, the people naked, carrying the bodies of saints and other sacred relics. After generations of good, they believed that divine retribution had come to punish a Europe divided by war and petty strife. The great rains of 1315 marked the beginning of what climatologists call the Little Ice Age, a period of six centuries of constant climatic shifts that may or may not be still in progress."
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Post by graywolf on May 6, 2017 11:50:53 GMT
The N.Hemisphere polar Jet is currently in the 6 lobe set up and causing a lot of chatter about the impacts last time we saw such ( 2003 for NW Europe, 2010 Russia and 2011 USA).
Should low solar drive such then the past 12 months of decline in Sunspots might be part of our driver and lead to a continuation of our current drought like conditions? With little ice in the Arctic once temps/dewpoints reach melt levels the 'cold' plunges from there will abate ( we have seen Iceland outstrip UK temps year on year since 07'!!!) and our temps will depend on whether the skies are cloudy/sunny around the block?
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Post by nautonnier on May 6, 2017 14:07:34 GMT
It does sound very much like the start of 'The Great Famine' in 1315 where for North West Europe and Britain it rained continually for 5 or 6 years. gists call the Little Ice Age, a period of six centuries of constant climatic shifts that may or may not be still in progress." "Farming in 1315?" Sorry Glen but that's a poor comparison, that's like comparing medicine in 1315 to today. I think if it were to rain more or less continually for 6 years as a continual 'atmospheric river' and then early cold winters with the ground frozen hard - even modern agriculture would be stymied. Make that a widespread effect in all the current agricultural areas and I would give the modern world 18 months before food supplies become too short to support the populations even in the 'advanced' nations.
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Post by nautonnier on May 6, 2017 16:49:20 GMT
Naut, Well "if" it rained for 6 years straight..... It would not be unprecedented - in fact as I have just come back from your neck of the woods you must get quite close to that level of rain already - it was certainly somewhat damp last week.
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Post by flearider on May 6, 2017 20:44:34 GMT
but as we know well over here anyway a lot of our food products come from the African continent .. and places where it's not going to hit that bad .. so all is not lost .. and with cooler weather the sea's should produce more .. and if worst comes to worst .. soylent green
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Post by douglavers on May 6, 2017 21:24:54 GMT
I think Svensmark will eventually receive a Nobel. His theory is reasonably convincing, but not favored by the establishment.
I hope the episode does not echo Wegener and Continental Drift.
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Post by glennkoks on May 6, 2017 21:47:20 GMT
It does sound very much like the start of 'The Great Famine' in 1315 where for North West Europe and Britain it rained continually for 5 or 6 years. gists call the Little Ice Age, a period of six centuries of constant climatic shifts that may or may not be still in progress." "Farming in 1315?" Sorry Glen but that's a poor comparison, that's like comparing medicine in 1315 to today. I guess I was not clear. I was referring to the weather being "eerily familiar" not farming practices. Obviously we are much better equipped to deal with another LIA nowadays. But we also have billions of more people to feed. So if the low solar activity does lead to shorter growing seasons and crop losses we could certainly see geo-political instability. Especially in the poorer countries who spend a much bigger percentage of their income on food.
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Post by missouriboy on May 7, 2017 1:34:36 GMT
Naut, Well "if" it rained for 6 years straight..... It would not be unprecedented - in fact as I have just come back from your neck of the woods you must get quite close to that level of rain already - it was certainly somewhat damp last week. And Noah only had to deal with 40 days and 40 nights! That's serious business.
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Post by missouriboy on May 7, 2017 3:56:12 GMT
but as we know well over here anyway a lot of our food products come from the African continent .. and places where it's not going to hit that bad .. so all is not lost .. and with cooler weather the sea's should produce more .. and if worst comes to worst .. soylent green With humus?
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Post by Ratty on May 7, 2017 7:36:08 GMT
but as we know well over here anyway a lot of our food products come from the African continent .. and places where it's not going to hit that bad .. so all is not lost .. and with cooler weather the sea's should produce more .. and if worst comes to worst .. soylent green With humus? From now on, when I look at humus, I'll be thinking Soylent Green.
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Post by sigurdur on May 7, 2017 17:33:07 GMT
I don't expect one to show up for another 30K years. I do expect us to stabilize with a cooling bias for the next 3-5 decades.
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Post by flearider on May 7, 2017 20:39:01 GMT
I don't expect one to show up for another 30K years. I do expect us to stabilize with a cooling bias for the next 3-5 decades. that long really ?? I was thinking in the next 1-2k yrs it's well over due .. then again only takes 50-80 yrs so could start next week .. greywolf would be pissed off .. no more melting ....
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Post by missouriboy on May 7, 2017 20:41:53 GMT
I don't expect one to show up for another 30K years. I do expect us to stabilize with a cooling bias for the next 3-5 decades. that long really ?? I was thinking in the next 1-2k yrs it's well over due .. then again only takes 50-80 yrs so could start next week .. greywolf would be pissed off .. no more melting .... We could give him Yellowstone caldera to warm his feet over.
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Post by AstroMet on Aug 26, 2017 17:20:14 GMT
"Farming in 1315?" Sorry Glen but that's a poor comparison, that's like comparing medicine in 1315 to today. I guess I was not clear. I was referring to the weather being "eerily familiar" not farming practices. Obviously we are much better equipped to deal with another LIA nowadays. But we also have billions of more people to feed. So if the low solar activity does lead to shorter growing seasons and crop losses we could certainly see geo-political instability. Especially in the poorer countries who spend a much bigger percentage of their income on food. After my analysis of the world's preparation for a Little Ice Age, it is my view that the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s will be pretty bad as we will have already begun the new climate regime of global cooling by mid-December 2017 - that's this year. I cannot stress enough to anyone reading this that it is already too late for nations to prepare for this little ice age. It's too late to prepare infrastructure, and so it will be hit-and-miss situations from this point on out with few opportunities to really make a difference. At least 95% of all the events from the weather of global cooling will be reaction. The years of preparation were wasted with useless propaganda of 'man-made global warming' and arguing with its proponents about something that does not exist. Therefore, expect disasters to be the result of at least 30 years of wasteful ideology about something that is imaginary and that violates all the laws of thermodynamics and physics. The Sun is heading toward its Grand Minimum and each and every single solar minimum has caused global cooling - that's a fact.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 26, 2017 19:04:15 GMT
I guess I was not clear. I was referring to the weather being "eerily familiar" not farming practices. Obviously we are much better equipped to deal with another LIA nowadays. But we also have billions of more people to feed. So if the low solar activity does lead to shorter growing seasons and crop losses we could certainly see geo-political instability. Especially in the poorer countries who spend a much bigger percentage of their income on food. After my analysis of the world's preparation for a Little Ice Age, it is my view that the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s will be pretty bad as we will have already begun the new climate regime of global cooling by mid-December 2017 - that's this year. I cannot stress enough to anyone reading this that it is already too late for nations to prepare for this little ice age. It's too late to prepare infrastructure, and so it will be hit-and-miss situations from this point on out with few opportunities to really make a difference. At least 95% of all the events from the weather of global cooling will be reaction. The years of preparation were wasted with useless propaganda of 'man-made global warming' and arguing with its proponents about something that does not exist. Therefore, expect disasters to be the result of at least 30 years of wasteful ideology about something that is imaginary and that violates all the laws of thermodynamics and physics. The Sun is heading toward its Grand Minimum and each and every single solar minimum has caused global cooling - that's a fact. Thank you Theodore. I have a couple questions. Are you predicting this minimum to be deeper in terms of solar activity than the Dalton Minimum? And at the other end of the scale the LIA appears to have bottomed at the Maunder Minimum with 70 years of virtually no sunspots but it seems pretty likely that getting to that point required the input of previous grand minimums known as the Wolf and Sporer and perhaps also the Oort minimums after the Roman Optimum over a period of at least 500 (back to the Medieval Maximum but maybe as much as 1700 years back to the Roman Optimum (which is fairly widely believed to have been warmer than the Medieval Maximum). So the LIA seems clearly to have been a larger event than just the Maunder minimum, with the Vikings being extirpated out of Greenland because of impinging cold more than a century before the Maunder Minimum started. When you note the 20's, 30's, and 40's (noting that he 40's would suggest 42 years cold conditions whereas the Dalton was attributed for maybe about 30 years and the Maunder which would be the small number for the LIA was 70 year of low solar activity and likely cool conditions) it would seem your comment of a LIA either implies we are either starting a lot colder than the optimum that marked its start or that you are predicting an event at least the size of the Maunder Minimum. Could you elaborate a bit more? Or is there not much else to say other than uncertainty of what happens after answering the first question.
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