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Post by sigurdur on Aug 27, 2017 2:28:24 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 27, 2017 3:11:57 GMT
I am not an expert in weather in that part of the nation. But it seems rather extreme and potentially crippling to agriculture. Especially if it comes on the heels of a cold and wet spring.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 27, 2017 3:59:28 GMT
I am not an expert in weather in that part of the nation. But it seems rather extreme and potentially crippling to agriculture. Especially if it comes on the heels of a cold and wet spring. One of the things that most missed during the Farmjournal tour last week was the lack of maturity in a lot of areas. US major growing areas have had a cool summer. Soybeans with pods but no beans. Corn with the milk line just starting to develop. If there is a widespread frost/freeze before October 1st there will be a lot of long faces, including mine. My potatoes will be ok, as that is a somewhat cool season crop. The one field of soys that I didn't have to replant needs 3 weeks, the replant needs a full month. Looked closely at a 1/4 of pinto beans and they are doing the 2nd flowering. That means 5 weeks required. The September full moon is on the 6th. If we make it past the 6th, should be good till the new moon. For some reason, up here in the fall, frosts usually happen near a full or new moon. Astromet may be able to shed some light as to why that happens? Oak acorns are falling. Noticed that today when at my father-in-laws. That is a full month early, so not a promising sign. This has been a somewhat screwy spring/summer. A cool start to spring and a cool summer. Will start combining wheat tomorrow. That is a week later than normal, considering planting date. At least it is supposed to warm up so the straw is crisp and recovery of the kernals will be better. I don't enjoy late harvests, as days get shorter and the pressure of time adds a layer of stress. Will just have to roll with the punches.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 27, 2017 4:14:05 GMT
The comments are telling. People bandy around 45 N Latitude as a 'magic' demarcation line north of which agriculture will essentially go off line. Words are cheap and you know what they compare opinions to. However, in the N American Grain Belt, the Iowa-Minnesota border is about 43.5 N. In Europe, 45 N is essentially a line from Bordeaux, FR to Pula, Croatia (southern Istria) to Sevastopol on the Black Sea. Let's hope they are wrong.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 27, 2017 8:56:20 GMT
Is the Harvey engine a factor as far North as Minnesota?
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 27, 2017 9:34:36 GMT
Is the Harvey engine a factor as far North as Minnesota? No but the steering anticyclones that are holding it in place are. It may be that without Harvey there they would drop further south. At this time of year with insolation reducing anticyclones mean cool/cold nights - as is being reported.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 27, 2017 9:54:04 GMT
Addition to the above look at the 1000hPa winds over the USA on earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-92.42,66.68,936 classic anticyclonic almost no winds - I would expect things to move toward very cold nights if that continues - the _only_ wind of any note is Harvey over the Texas coast and northerly winds along the Carolinas to Florida. Now go up to the jetstream levels at 250hPa and it's a mess there are jetstreaks all over the place and a meandering broken jet - you can see even there that Harvey appears to be adding some outflow at that height too. earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-92.42,66.68,936 The poles are totally different at 10hPa with a really tight but displaced circulation over the antarctic and the 'polar' circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is down at the equator.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 27, 2017 11:37:30 GMT
Does that mean I asked a good question?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 27, 2017 12:41:35 GMT
Does that mean I asked a good question? Yep
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Post by flearider on Aug 27, 2017 15:00:25 GMT
check out the speed of the polar vortex over Antarctica ..and the 2 mini me's at 12 and 6 oclock if the artic go's that strong this yr it really is going to be cold ..
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 27, 2017 19:37:48 GMT
Wish I could be there... What brand machine are you using? Or have you hired out? I use a New Holland 9060 on Wheat and Soybeans. Use a Case-IH 1680 on pinto beans, and soybeans if I can find an operator.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 28, 2017 7:41:22 GMT
check out the speed of the polar vortex over Antarctica ..and the 2 mini me's at 12 and 6 oclock if the artic go's that strong this yr it really is going to be cold .. Yeah....ive never seen so much white on a nullschool image before....powerful!!
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Post by acidohm on Aug 28, 2017 7:51:15 GMT
Addition to the above look at the 1000hPa winds over the USA on earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-92.42,66.68,936 classic anticyclonic almost no winds - I would expect things to move toward very cold nights if that continues - the _only_ wind of any note is Harvey over the Texas coast and northerly winds along the Carolinas to Florida. Now go up to the jetstream levels at 250hPa and it's a mess there are jetstreaks all over the place and a meandering broken jet - you can see even there that Harvey appears to be adding some outflow at that height too. earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-92.42,66.68,936 The poles are totally different at 10hPa with a really tight but displaced circulation over the antarctic and the 'polar' circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is down at the equator. What the polar vortex does from here on in will be worth watching. It's in its easterly QBO phase and as such is more susceptible to interference with the jetstream. It needs to settle into a more northerly location to allow those of us in 'the north' to have a normal range of winter weather....
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 28, 2017 18:51:20 GMT
How Will Human-Forced Climate Change Affect the Pacific Northwest? "This blog will review what I believe is the state-of-the-science, one that will avoid hype or politicization of the issue. One based on peer-reviewed publications and the best models we have available. And an analysis that will be honest about what we don't know and the uncertainties" cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/how-will-human-forced-climate-change.htmlThe base assumption that humans can cause climate change is, of course, not even queried.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 28, 2017 20:25:18 GMT
How Will Human-Forced Climate Change Affect the Pacific Northwest? "This blog will review what I believe is the state-of-the-science, one that will avoid hype or politicization of the issue. One based on peer-reviewed publications and the best models we have available. And an analysis that will be honest about what we don't know and the uncertainties" cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/how-will-human-forced-climate-change.htmlHe starts out by attempting to sound reasonable but then states that he believes in temperature trends that are not measured ... although admitting that such trends for areas that are measured show no such thing. He also believes in a theory that is undemonstrated to this day ... some would say falsified. He believes in models and is surprised that they go wacko in the not too distant future. I have not run climate models ... but I have run many demographic and economic models. They all do that if you don't constrain them with things you don't know. It's the old Uncle Scrooge gotcha ... double a penny on every square of a chess board. They have to severely hobble Pegasus to keep him earthbound and they don't know what they're doing. And ditto Naut.
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