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Post by tobyglyn on Jan 15, 2017 21:46:31 GMT
Well I see no problem here GW has defined success of his prediction being a continuing lift in annual temperatures and an ice free Arctic. I really like his prediction and hope that his writings are spot on!!!! An ice free Arctic will result in a boon for mankind. What is not to like! You and the evil Russians
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 15, 2017 21:48:54 GMT
Are the Russians still evil? I thought they were just paranoid after being invaded so many times. Silly me?
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 16, 2017 8:01:29 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Jan 16, 2017 12:18:24 GMT
I thought Nino brought wet weather to California?
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 16, 2017 12:20:43 GMT
I thought Nino brought wet weather to California? As I said earlier GW we are in a different regime. Joe Bastardi says the 'atmospheric river' is due to the extra cold Pacific 'basin' contrast with the water further South.
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Post by graywolf on Jan 16, 2017 13:07:07 GMT
Are we talking the WACCy outpouring of cold air across the N.Pacific?
If Yearly WACCy impacts are to include a whacked out PV that fails to form over Autumn/early winter due to the heat source that sets up over Barentsz/Kara then we will see very Jet guiding very mobile air masses both dumping cold out of the basin and hot/moist air into the basin ( setting up the basin for low ice the next melt season) then we ought to expect a new 'ENSO' regime setting up as QBO/Polar stratosphere become bent out of shape due to new energy entering the climate system over certain areas and at certain times of year?
The QBO forcing on weather no longer appears to be being adhered to?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 16, 2017 14:36:16 GMT
Are we talking the WACCy outpouring of cold air across the N.Pacific? If Yearly WACCy impacts are to include a whacked out PV that fails to form over Autumn/early winter due to the heat source that sets up over Barentsz/Kara then we will see very Jet guiding very mobile air masses both dumping cold out of the basin and hot/moist air into the basin ( setting up the basin for low ice the next melt season) then we ought to expect a new 'ENSO' regime setting up as QBO/Polar stratosphere become bent out of shape due to new energy entering the climate system over certain areas and at certain times of year? The QBO forcing on weather no longer appears to be being adhered to? No one really knows why the change. We just don't have valid atmospheric observation length. We know this happens on an approximate 150 CYCLE in California. We don't know why. The current event seems anemic tho by climate standards. With that stated, this event is not over.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 16, 2017 15:50:17 GMT
Are we talking the WACCy outpouring of cold air across the N.Pacific? If Yearly WACCy impacts are to include a whacked out PV that fails to form over Autumn/early winter due to the heat source that sets up over Barentsz/Kara then we will see very Jet guiding very mobile air masses both dumping cold out of the basin and hot/moist air into the basin ( setting up the basin for low ice the next melt season) then we ought to expect a new 'ENSO' regime setting up as QBO/Polar stratosphere become bent out of shape due to new energy entering the climate system over certain areas and at certain times of year? The QBO forcing on weather no longer appears to be being adhered to? No it is the sea surface temperatures have dropped. The warm 'blob' is now a cold 'blob'.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 16, 2017 17:27:44 GMT
La Nina is a thing of the past, for now.
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Post by graywolf on Jan 16, 2017 20:25:01 GMT
I'm with B.O.M. in calling the 2016 Nina a 'Dud'
Surrounding ocean warmth just diluted any surfacing cold so never crossing the more stringent B.O.M. temp triggers.
Should we see similar over summer then NOAA triggers will call Nino where B.O.M. will witness a warm neutral.
What will we call it in here?
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ENSO 2017
Jan 16, 2017 20:40:26 GMT
via mobile
Post by sigurdur on Jan 16, 2017 20:40:26 GMT
I'm with B.O.M. in calling the 2016 Nina a 'Dud' Surrounding ocean warmth just diluted any surfacing cold so never crossing the more stringent B.O.M. temp triggers. Should we see similar over summer then NOAA triggers will call Nino where B.O.M. will witness a warm neutral. What will we call it in here? Weather?
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ENSO 2017
Jan 17, 2017 15:53:01 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Jan 17, 2017 15:53:01 GMT
I'm with B.O.M. in calling the 2016 Nina a 'Dud' Surrounding ocean warmth just diluted any surfacing cold so never crossing the more stringent B.O.M. temp triggers. Should we see similar over summer then NOAA triggers will call Nino where B.O.M. will witness a warm neutral. What will we call it in here? Its almost as if there was no enso event recently
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Post by icefisher on Jan 17, 2017 16:21:18 GMT
I'm with B.O.M. in calling the 2016 Nina a 'Dud' Surrounding ocean warmth just diluted any surfacing cold so never crossing the more stringent B.O.M. temp triggers. Should we see similar over summer then NOAA triggers will call Nino where B.O.M. will witness a warm neutral. What will we call it in here? Its almost as if there was no enso event recently Astromet was right! The ocean got its El Nino but the climate did not. The Big Dud!
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Post by graywolf on Jan 17, 2017 16:22:18 GMT
I think the last ENSO event was heavily subsidised by general warmth in the system with Nino merely adding the icing to the cake? This is easily proven by 2017's global temps. Should they not fall far short of 2016 ( battling with 2015 for second place?) then we will know that other things are at play in our climate ( reduced global 'dimming' and Arctic Sea ice failure/Arctic dark water accepting heat)
Of course should we see another Nino form , or a Blue Ocean Event in the Arctic, then all bets are off!!!!
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 17, 2017 16:47:07 GMT
I hope to see a Blue Ocean Event in the Arctic before I assume room temperature. (I am a donor, and my body goes to science. Won't be but a few ashes left when all is said and done).
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