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Post by nautonnier on Jul 24, 2017 17:12:05 GMT
Britain faces 'unprecedented' winter downpours with a 1-in-3 chance of a new monthly rainfall record each year over the next decade, Met Office warns
Met Office used a supercomputer to simulate thousands of possible winters There is an 8% risk of record rainfall in south east England in any given winter Six regions of England and Wales were considered in the analysis by the Met Of these, four - south-east England, the Midlands, East Anglia and north-east England - met the threshold set for a high risk of extreme rainfallwww.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4725000/UK-faces-unprecedented-winter-downpours.html#ixzz4nlD8Rb6OWell well - the Met Office and Theo are in accord Can you highlight, point, directly to where Theo made such a prediction please? There are several to choose from: The title of this thread: And from the thread: false-spring-prepare-global-cooling Personally I am an "agnostic" on the subject of Global Cooling/AGW. What I do know is that the Roman Warm Period gave way to the Little Ice Age and just about every "warm" period gave way to a cold one. I have no reason to believe the current warming won't give way to cooling at some point as well. The forces that have always driven the climate still are doing so. As for "believing" that 2017 is the official start of global cooling? I don't know. But it certainly does not hurt to be prepared for it. Having a storage of food, clean water, seeds, fuel, guns and ammo is insurance for a lot of things ranging from global cooling to an EMP, Solar Storm, Super Volcano etc... Later this solar year of 2017 most certainly is the start of the global cooling Glenn, as I have forecasted. By the start of the 2020s, we will have already entered the next little ice age, and by the end of the next decade, we will have seen the Earth's climate colder and wetter than anyone living can remember.The trend lines to my global cooling forecast have been evident for years now, and with this false spring, we can observe the truth of this in regions around the globe, including Europe and in the United States, like in the Midwest where farmers, as I have forecasted, are struggling with the torrential rains and floods I warned about. www.agweb.com/article/us-corn-fields-turn-into-lakes-as-spring-deluge-floods-midwest-blmg/And first lines of second post on this thread
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 24, 2017 18:23:49 GMT
Sig re petrol growing as discussed.
Firstly if it is an effective and efficient usage of resources then remove the mandated usage and subsidies. Secondly if food prices rise as some are suggesting will happen the bias moves from fuel to food.
8% chance of significant rain as against what? Possibly say 5% and thus a largely an impossible to test hypothesis.
GIGO again.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 25, 2017 13:16:13 GMT
I can think of no better bellwether to climate change than commodity prices. Throw politics out, AGW believers, deniers and fence sitters. At this point everybody has some type of built in bias. However it has been my experience that people who actually have skin in the game have an uncanny ability to analyze data. The first noticeable indicator of any climate regime change from a warmer one to a colder one will be reflected in agricultural commodity prices.
I can promise you that people who trade corn, wheat and bean futures have poured through the data, read every crop report worldwide, talked to farmers and the best long range forecasters out there in an effort to make a dollar.
If the climate is going to cool enough to effect farming on a worldwide stage it will be reflected in commodity prices.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 25, 2017 14:36:21 GMT
Problem is Glen go to Exeter and talk to the 'best long range forecasters' in the met office and they are sold on CO2 as the control knob and as US is not paying $lots Billions to the developing countries like China, the world is going to fry - and that assumption is actually _in_ the models that they use. It is only forecasters like Theo and Piers Corbyn who are saying different.
I think that the long range 'forecasters' will be caught as much by surprise as the commodity markets. Look at what is happening in South America at the moment.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 25, 2017 16:14:19 GMT
There are several to choose from: The title of this thread: And from the thread: false-spring-prepare-global-cooling And first lines of second post on this thread The same predictions are made by the AGW crowd. In my experience their 'predictions' (actually they tend to call them projections) are based on what extreme is currently happening and they respond yes that is what they said would happen. UK was meant to become arid with agriculture having to turn to the kind of plants that are found in Northern Spain. With wine growing back in Scotland. So there was no point in dredging rivers as it was going to be continual drought in the South. That was until there was heavy rain and floods and all of a sudden that was the symptom of global warming. So now it is cold and wet in southern UK, that is a symptom of global warming. The extra snow (that children were not going to know) that you have had in the Cascades and Rockies is a symptom of global warming. Indeed any unusual weather event is now blamed on 'carbon' and is due to 'weather weirding' and only 'climate deniers' wouldn't believe that. Theo has said relatively consistently that 2017 would be the year everyone recognizes that it is getting colder and that it would be more than apparent by mid-December. Well South America is cold, there are heavy rains in various places. Let's wait 5 months and assess the evidence.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 25, 2017 17:27:52 GMT
Naut: With all due respect, there are a host of private forecasters who have their own models. Think of Weather Bell as one? Drew Lerner? Etc etc
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 25, 2017 19:53:52 GMT
Sig not sure that weatherbell have climate models as such. By that I mean they probably have the usual 2 to 4 weak stuff but their long term stuff is based around analogs that is they assume everything that will happen has happened largely.
They don't drift of on their own like the IPCC cluster do.
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Post by duwayne on Jul 25, 2017 20:27:23 GMT
Nautonnier, you say above that "Theo has said relatively consistently that 2017 would be the year everyone recognizes that it is getting colder and that it would be more than apparent by mid-December. Well South America is cold, there are heavy rains in various places. Let's wait 5 months and assess the evidence."
What measurable evidence by the end of 2017 would convince you that Theo is right?
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 25, 2017 22:09:45 GMT
Clearly its interesting for the climate in both hemispheres to fall below the 30 year average but that is still just a point in time. It would take years below the 30 Year average to close this out. (not withstanding a big drop of say 2C)
I suggest that just falling below the 30 year average will have a silencing impact regardless of the years required to cement a position of change. For me the key to a significant fall in temperatures is that the natural variability would be shown to be the dominant influence on the worlds climate and no scientist that operates under the principles of the required training would be able to ignore that. There is already a centralizing of position by many and a very clear focus on variability of climate rather than warmth. (In NZ)
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Post by Ratty on Jul 25, 2017 22:24:16 GMT
Clearly its interesting for the climate in both hemispheres to fall below the 30 year average but that is still just a point in time. It would take years below the 30 Year average to close this out. (not withstanding a big drop of say 2C) I suggest that just falling below the 30 year average will have a silencing impact regardless of the years required to cement a position of change. For me the key to a significant fall in temperatures is that the natural variability would be shown to be the dominant influence on the worlds climate and no scientist that operates under the principles of the required training would be able to ignore that. There is already a centralizing of position by many and a very clear focus on variability of climate rather than warmth. (In NZ) What's happening over the ditch, Non?
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 25, 2017 23:19:15 GMT
Problem is Glen go to Exeter and talk to the 'best long range forecasters' in the met office and they are sold on CO 2 as the control knob and as US is not paying $lots Billions to the developing countries like China, the world is going to fry - and that assumption is actually _in_ the models that they use. It is only forecasters like Theo and Piers Corbyn who are saying different. I think that the long range 'forecasters' will be caught as much by surprise as the commodity markets. Look at what is happening in South America at the moment. Nautonnier, You are damn right they will be caught by surprise as the commodity market rise! The free market is agonistic and does care which side of the global warming debate you are on. Traders only concern is how to make a buck. I am not a commodity trader. But If I was I would not listen to one sentence of a long term "forecast" anybody in the met office put out. I work too hard for my money. Which is why I took a step back, cleared my mind, did some soul searching, apologized to Astromet for some of the things I said about his methodology and reset. I still am skeptical of anyones ability to forecast the weather or climate outside of 10 days. But maybe just maybe Astro is on to something. Our climate has never been stable and there appears to be long term cyclical aspects to it. Maybe Theo has picked up on some of these cycles. Time will tell. In addition Astromet is not on the government dole. He does not get a check every other friday regardless of the accuracy of his forecasts. He has to earn them.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 25, 2017 23:27:36 GMT
Nautonnier, you say above that "Theo has said relatively consistently that 2017 would be the year everyone recognizes that it is getting colder and that it would be more than apparent by mid-December. Well South America is cold, there are heavy rains in various places. Let's wait 5 months and assess the evidence." What measurable evidence by the end of 2017 would convince you that Theo is right? In all fairness at anytime on this earth there is "cold" and "heavy rains". There is also heat and drought. Using events like this is worthless when trying to validate a long term "global" forecast. I will not speak for Nautonnier but the metric I would use to validate a "substantial" decrease in global temps would be agricultural production. If the forecast is for "global cooling, torrential rains, flooding etc" it will lead to an increase in commodity prices.
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 26, 2017 5:36:57 GMT
And yes nobody needs to be rude to each other, this is purely a Hypothesis validation process.
Collateral damage could well also result, but that is where the prepers will be playing potentially.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 26, 2017 10:09:33 GMT
Nautonnier, you say above that "Theo has said relatively consistently that 2017 would be the year everyone recognizes that it is getting colder and that it would be more than apparent by mid-December. Well South America is cold, there are heavy rains in various places. Let's wait 5 months and assess the evidence." What measurable evidence by the end of 2017 would convince you that Theo is right? In all fairness at anytime on this earth there is "cold" and "heavy rains". There is also heat and drought. Using events like this is worthless when trying to validate a long term "global" forecast. I will not speak for Nautonnier but the metric I would use to validate a "substantial" decrease in global temps would be agricultural production. If the forecast is for "global cooling, torrential rains, flooding etc" it will lead to an increase in commodity prices. Its good to be skeptical. Personally I will be surprised if there will be enough change to overwhelm the adjustocene, I spent enough years working with difficult datasets to realize that climate really changes enough to not simply be looked at as a couple of cold winters and cool summers for a number of years. Clearly the 70's were about .8 of a degree C cooler than today but if there hadn't been so much talk about I doubt I would have noticed. One thing greenhouse gases should do is limit diurnal variation so to really notice the cold is probably going to be up to your local meteorologist to detail out the numbers for you even if the mean drops all the way back to 1911. Food prices may indeed be the most noticeable difference. But like tree rings maybe food prices don't move as much with temperature as they do with precipitation.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 26, 2017 12:14:20 GMT
IceFisher, I mentioned elsewhere that - locally, urban area - we have been/are in a period where both daily minimums and maximums are well below and above average respectively. CO2 limiting diurnal variation?
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