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Post by missouriboy on Sept 29, 2017 2:46:59 GMT
I am hesitant to comment here because you guys are way ahead of me but here goes. I believe I've read that the NAO is a strongly atmosphere coupled phenomena and I believe ENSO is supposed to be also. Intuitively, it seems to me that the atmospheric effects (weather) will tend to have generally short time constants relative to the ocean water behavior. This makes me think that there can be quite a lag between solar cycle phenomena and it's effects on all of the varying interactive cycles we try to understand. This very weak cycle 24 is interesting because of all the parameters that are now being monitored. Perhaps we will see a more clear correlation with these parameters in the next few years. That said, I think AMO and PDO would be good to see with NAO and ENSO. Here is an AMO comparison to the Geomagnetic AP Index that I constructed a couple of years ago. Still don't know why the lags have held up so well over the last 15 years. British charm I guess.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 29, 2017 10:27:07 GMT
I am hesitant to comment here because you guys are way ahead of me but here goes. I believe I've read that the NAO is a strongly atmosphere coupled phenomena and I believe ENSO is supposed to be also. Intuitively, it seems to me that the atmospheric effects (weather) will tend to have generally short time constants relative to the ocean water behavior. This makes me think that there can be quite a lag between solar cycle phenomena and it's effects on all of the varying interactive cycles we try to understand. This very weak cycle 24 is interesting because of all the parameters that are now being monitored. Perhaps we will see a more clear correlation with these parameters in the next few years. That said, I think AMO and PDO would be good to see with NAO and ENSO. Here is an AMO comparison to the Geomagnetic AP Index that I constructed a couple of years ago. Still don't know why the lags have held up so well over the last 15 years. British charm I guess. Interesting that there is such a diversion at 2003 which is the 'inflection point' claimed by Norman Page and others.
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 29, 2017 12:28:46 GMT
Here is an AMO comparison to the Geomagnetic AP Index that I constructed a couple of years ago. Still don't know why the lags have held up so well over the last 15 years. British charm I guess. Interesting that there is such a diversion at 2003 which is the 'inflection point' claimed by Norman Page and others. That plot is thought provoking to say the least. 2 cycles of data is hard to draw many conclusions on but I (as a novice here) can state the obvious. 1) The ~11yr. Solar cycle is clearly seen being modulated by a 60-70 year AP. 2) The AMO cycle appears synchronized with the AP until the AP goes south late in the data. 3) I doubt anyone here thinks the AMO is the driver of the AP. 4) I think arguing that the sun drives the complex weather of the earth is a sound position and a predicate to climate science (to the extent that it exists). 5) Unless the apparent syncronisity is a coincidence, there is an apparent lag occurring between a change in solar activity periodicity and AMO beginning early in the new century. 6) if the apparent synchronization is not coincidental, then an unknown duration lag exists between cause and effect. This is reasonable since the energy storage capacity of the oceans is bound to be of a long time constant nature. 7) if the data is correct and my laymen observations are not ridiculous, something dramatic is happening!
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Post by Ratty on Sept 29, 2017 13:20:23 GMT
[ Snip ] That plot is thought provoking to say the least. 2 cycles of data is hard to draw many conclusions on but I (as a novice here) can state the obvious. 1) The ~11yr. Solar cycle is clearly seen being modulated by a 60-70 year AP. 2) The AMO cycle appears synchronized with the AP until the AP goes south late in the data. 3) I doubt anyone here thinks the AMO is the driver of the AP. 4) I think arguing that the sun drives the complex weather of the earth is a sound position and a predicate to climate science (to the extent that it exists). 5) Unless the apparent syncronisity is a coincidence, there is a lag between a change in solar activity periodicity and AMO.6) if the apparent synchronization is not coincidental, then an unknown lag exists between cause and effect. This is likely since the energy storage capacity of the oceans is of a long time constant nature. 7) if the data is correct and my laymen observations are not ridiculous, something dramatic is happening! For a small fee, the lag can be disappeared.
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 29, 2017 14:06:17 GMT
For a small fee, the lag can be disappeared. I think that would require access to the knobs that control the yellow ball in the sky. 😎
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Post by Ratty on Sept 29, 2017 22:35:41 GMT
For a small fee, the lag can be disappeared. I think that would require access to the knobs that control the yellow ball in the sky. 😎 .... or a computer keyboard.
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 29, 2017 23:12:39 GMT
I think that would require access to the knobs that control the yellow ball in the sky. 😎 .... or a computer keyboard. Do you have a “Bluetooth” connection with the sun Ratty?
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Post by Ratty on Sept 30, 2017 0:12:42 GMT
.... or a computer keyboard. Do you have a “Bluetooth” connection with the sun Ratty? Why involve the Sun? Just change the data. Easy.
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 30, 2017 1:07:03 GMT
Do you have a “Bluetooth” connection with the sun Ratty? Why involve the Sun? Just change the data. Easy. Tony Heller keeps finding the old data...he digs it out of “The Memory Hole”.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 5, 2017 12:28:51 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Oct 5, 2017 15:27:29 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 5, 2017 17:44:50 GMT
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Post by RicksFormula on Oct 5, 2017 18:49:11 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Oct 5, 2017 23:37:52 GMT
Spoilsport.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 13, 2017 16:43:34 GMT
And the word of the day is: ANTILOG
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