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Post by twawki on Sept 19, 2008 21:43:26 GMT
We're probably going to get hammered this winter. And it's sure looking like we could end up with a La Nina again: weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/(Read The Great Wall has Risen) Yeah the indices keep pointing more and more to that. Under La Nina conditions what does that mean for the USA - warmer on one side cold on the other?
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Post by jimg on Sept 20, 2008 0:31:21 GMT
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Post by socold on Sept 20, 2008 1:03:30 GMT
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vauss
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 55
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Post by vauss on Sept 20, 2008 6:13:23 GMT
Socold, A lot of people here don't trust the NCDC for a variety of reasons. You also have to consider what the base is for their anomaly readings. Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't these anomalies departures from the 1901-2000 average? Also, the value of .50 for August does not agree with their own, more precise data. Apparently someone felt the need for roundoff. The actual Northern Hemisphere land-sea anomaly for August 2008 was .4781 (see below) Also interesting to note that this is the lowest August anomaly for the northern hemisphere since 1999 according to NCDC data. ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.land_and_ocean.00N.90N.df_1901-2000mean.datVauss
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Post by byz on Sept 21, 2008 20:27:48 GMT
The Central England Temperature (CET), which is the oldest record in the world shows that the last two summers have been colder.
Last winter was above average, however we had a La nina event which always makes UK winters warmer.
This winter will be a better guide as to what is happening ;D
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vauss
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 55
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Post by vauss on Sept 21, 2008 21:03:37 GMT
Update for Valdez. Now that the clouds have lifted a bit, we can see the snowline in the mountains around us very clearly. Looks to be about the 3,000 foot level. This actually is pretty typical for late September. What is a bit unusual is _how much_ snow is on the mountains. Quite a bit more than normal, and typical of what we have experienced in some of the colder years over the past 18 here. If we get snow in the first week of October on the valley floor, than that will match some of the coldest winters in the past 18, for example, 1992 and 1993 after Pinatubo. Vauss Ron, Snow line in the mountains around you. Summer is being "terminated" by the "dust" (snow) on the mountains. Same thing happening in Valdez, although we may be a bit lower than 4,000 now. Hard to tell with all the fog and low clouds. Snow tires went on my car on Monday. I'm ready! :-) OK, I surrender. What's "termination dust?"
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Post by socold on Sept 22, 2008 22:26:30 GMT
Socold, A lot of people here don't trust the NCDC for a variety of reasons. You also have to consider what the base is for their anomaly readings. Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't these anomalies departures from the 1901-2000 average? +0.5C above the 1901-2000 average puts great doubt on the idea that the Northern hemisphere is cold. The data changes by a few hundredths of a degree over time over the course of updates. This is probably true of all the records. 1999 had a La Nina too.
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Post by Acolyte on Sept 22, 2008 23:53:49 GMT
+0.5C above the 1901-2000 average puts great doubt on the idea that the Northern hemisphere is cold. The data changes by a few hundredths of a degree over time over the course of updates. This is probably true of all the records. 1999 had a La Nina too. But the 1901-2000 average includes many more years of cooler weather than warm ones, otherwise there wouldn't be the upward trend to use to freak out politicians. Given 1998 was a peak year, it is reasonable to expect that a specific later year wouldn't be as cool as an average taken over a period that had, for example 30 years of cooling between 1940 & 1970. And that's even pre-supposing the measurements aren't being cooked as we have ample evidence of happening to produce this whole AGW scenario. ie. even if the hockey stick (of whatever iteration) was accurate, we could still be in a cooler year & still show as above the 100 year average. 0.5ºC is highly significant according to AGW proponents - that about the total warming so far since the invention of hockey-stick warming. Apparently it is so significant we have to spend billions to counteract it & change the way the world pays taxes to fund the fight against it. So a 4.38% error in figures seems a significant error to make. It is after all, something like 5 years of warming glitch in the .5º per 100 years.
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Post by rocketsci on Sept 24, 2008 0:12:31 GMT
OK, this was too good to pass up. I got the following in my inbox... Mother Nature Skips Fall Whistler Blackcomb received over 6 cm/2.4 inches of snow in the alpine Sunday night making Whistlerites wonder if Mother Nature forgot a season. On the first day of fall, Whistler Blackcomb mountain tops were covered with at least six centimetres of snow. With 65 days until the winter ski season and 79 days until the opening of the PEAK 2 PEAK Gondola on December 12, the countdown is on. ;D
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Post by woodstove on Sept 24, 2008 23:18:39 GMT
Hey socold. When NCDC gives January 2008 as +0.10°C, that one single figure lets me know that they are a far outlier. I would put that in the "as if" realm.
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Post by socold on Sept 24, 2008 23:42:00 GMT
+0.1C means the temperature in January 2008 was 0.1C higher than the 1900-2000 average, which isn't inconceivable at all.
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Post by tilmari on Sept 25, 2008 6:56:01 GMT
Baseline for NCDC is 1961-1990, for GISS 1951-1980 and for all other relevant temperature-keepers 1971-2000.
Thank you Tacoman, I correct the baselines.
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Post by tacoman25 on Sept 25, 2008 16:16:02 GMT
Baseline for NCDC is 1960-1990, for GISS 1950-1970 and for all other relevant temperature-keepers 1970-2000. GISS has a 1951-80 baseline, but that is pretty much an outlier. Hadley has 1961-90, and the NWS uses 1971-2000 (I believe they update the 30 year average every ten years, so in 2011 they will start using 1981-2010).
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Post by tilmari on Sept 25, 2008 20:09:05 GMT
Yes, true, Hadley still uses the 1961-1990 baseline.
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Post by kaidaw on Oct 1, 2008 14:58:05 GMT
Hey, rocketsci! [Since you started this thread] Summer in San Diego was, as you said, cool. However, yesterday's 35C/24C was a reminder that our fair paradise does have some anecdotal offerings, too. [Proof of global warming] I recall that four or five years ago, we had 3 days all year that were 38C or higher: the last day of winter, the first day of spring, and the first day of autumn. And (at 3C) I did see snow in the air near Hotel Circle in 1988 (our Little Ice Age). ;D Hmm, maybe a boring, normal 24C/16C everyday is better.
EDIT: What did I get for complaining this morning about 35C? 38C today.
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