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Post by tacoman25 on Jul 27, 2009 19:30:41 GMT
Already had one, start of summer, during that big spike: So one hot spell makes a bbq summer? From what I've heard, there has been plenty of cloud/rain throughout the UK since then....not exactly Mediterranean. And it looks to continue.
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Post by socold on Jul 27, 2009 20:15:52 GMT
socold. Barbecue summer. Already had one, start of summer, during that big spike: You are showing your age now socold (or lack of it). Many of us are old enough to remember heatwaves where the temperature sat around 30c for weeks at a time. After 30yrs of so called warming, less that a week at 26c is a barbecue summer now. Sort of redefines it a bit don't you think. I was making a semi-humorous point that "barbeque summer" is subjective. Again why not stick to what the met office actually predicted? I think they were wrong anyway, but with August left to go who knows for sure.
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 27, 2009 20:40:27 GMT
The really depressing point is that the UK's weather has been quite close to average and it is not much to talk about. I do wonder why would the UK be so keen to reverse the recent warming. Should they not have a referendum, some may opt for more CO2 output!
The frames of normality are easily moved is my point.
Both sides of an argument need to keep clear of anecdote and cheery picking. The science is most certainly not settled, if we had used this approach in the past we would still be on a flat earth, and it may still be the case.
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Post by magellan on Jul 28, 2009 1:47:31 GMT
Your'e playing semantics now socold. OK, not word for word warmest ever summer, mildest ever winter how about 2009 to be one of warmest years on record. I could find dozens of other but really can't be asked. uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE4BT49G20081230That's an article from December last year. It says: "Next year is set to be one of the top-five warmest on record, British climate scientists said on Tuesday.""The average global temperature for 2009 is expected to be more than 0.4 degrees celsius above the long-term average, despite the continued cooling of huge areas of the Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Nina."So far it's 0.403C above the long-term average. So it looks like they are close. So what's the problem again? I don't see them predicting the warmest year in the article. In fact a scientist in the article notes that 2009 will not be a record breaker. So far it's 0.403C above the long-term average. So it looks like they are close. So what's the problem again? Actually it's back down to .395; there have been several adjustments at Hadley this year, mostly upward. Using simple regression, 2009 ranks at .362 in June. The probability of 2009 reaching or exceeding the "top five warmest years" as Met O predicted diminishes with each passing month, unless of course one assumes every month for the remainder of the year will exceed .494 (the present June anomaly). I'll wager 2009 will not exceed 2004, and will not reach .40 when it's all said and done. Then again, with Hadley and GISS diverging from satellite, anything could happen
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Post by glc on Jul 28, 2009 8:05:49 GMT
Warmest ever summer. No it was average and rained a lot.
mildest ever winter. No it was record cold.
There was NO record cold or anywhere near it. It was the coldest winter (just about) since the mid 1990s. There were at least 4 winters in the 1980s which were much colder and that's before we start looking at 1963.
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Post by glc on Jul 28, 2009 8:24:16 GMT
socold. Barbecue summer. Already had one, start of summer, during that big spike:
You are showing your age now socold (or lack of it). Many of us are old enough to remember heatwaves where the temperature sat around 30c for weeks at a time. After 30yrs of so called warming, less that a week at 26c is a barbecue summer now.
"many of us remember heatwaves where the temperature sat around 30c for weeks at a time".
Do we?
Well I remember 1976. And 1975 also had a hot spell. Apart from that I remember summers in the 1960s when I went to watch cricket during the school holidays and going blue with the cold.
The 30C deg spells you talk about have mainly occurred in the past 20 years. In the UK, July 2006 was the warmest month ever by some distance. In 2003 the UK record temperature record was broken in what was another very hot summer.
As far as this year is concerned, it's been showery but nothing exceptional and temperatures in June/July have been above average. In fact the summer, as a whole (Jun-Jul-Aug) is likely to be warmer than average which is pretty much what the Met Office said. It's possible they have have under-estimated the rainfall but if we have a dry August they might not be too far out on that.
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Post by byz on Jul 28, 2009 9:38:50 GMT
Err what about 1995?
In 1995 we came close to catching 1975 and in the southeast it was the longest dry spell since 1976, there were hosepipe bans across the southeast. It was such a hot Summer that it inspired me and my wife to book a holiday to Australia in October 1995.
In 2003 I stripped and painted every window frame in my house, I couldn't have done that in the last three Summers. Also if you remember lot of people were dying across Europe due to the heat and in France so many old people were dying that they started herding them into supermarkets, here in the Southeast of England it was Hot, Hot, Hot. Plus of course more hosepipe bans! We also hit 100F in the southeast.
Also in 2006 until August (when it turned into October overnight) up until July it was so hot that my house was unbearable at night as all the bricks had heated up!
Of course where you live glc (where unicorn run free) it probably snowed those Summers ;D
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Post by glc on Jul 28, 2009 10:25:54 GMT
Err what about 1995?
1995 was within the last 20 years which is what I said, i.e. most of the 30+ deg hot spells have occurred in the last 20 years.
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Post by poitsplace on Jul 28, 2009 10:56:27 GMT
Well let's face it...we usually expect temperatures to be relatively close to recent temperatures. Of course, we shouldn't be expecting any significant warming until the end of the cooling period anyway...some time around 2030 or 2040. Not sure how much cooling (if any) we'll see during the cooling period though.
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Post by stevenotsteve on Jul 28, 2009 20:19:52 GMT
glc. i.e. most of the 30+ deg hot spells have occurred in the last 20 years. Apart of course from all the heatwaves that happened before then. www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/html/heatwv.htmIn the 40-year period from 1936 through 1975, nearly 20,000 people were killed in the United States by the effects of heat and solar radiation. In the disastrous heat wave of 1980, more than 1,250 people died. If you only look a couple of decades back you only see what you want to see glc. Reality is written in the tabloids of the day not in your GISS record.
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Post by glc on Jul 28, 2009 22:02:42 GMT
glc. i.e. most of the 30+ deg hot spells have occurred in the last 20 years.
Apart of course from all the heatwaves that happened before then. www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/html/heatwv.htm
In the 40-year period from 1936 through 1975, nearly 20,000 people were killed in the United States by the effects of heat and solar radiation. In the disastrous heat wave of 1980, more than 1,250 people died. What's the US got to do with it? We were discussing Europe and the UK in particular. In any case 20,000 heat-related deaths is not actually that many over 40 year period. Across Europe, over 35,000 died as a result of 2003 heatwave alone. I believe the US is far better equipped to deal with heatwaves than we are in Europe. Far more homes and offices have air conditioning, so they tend to have less heat casualties per head of population.
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Post by stevenotsteve on Jul 29, 2009 8:28:54 GMT
Ok,
Apart from 1976 & 1983 which were hotter in the uk than the recent heatwaves. The historical temp records may have been adjusted down to give a better warming slope for the alarmists but the facts remain.
I think we can pretty well say that heatwaves have not increased in either frequency or amplitude in the US or the UK.
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Post by neilhamp on Jul 29, 2009 9:09:09 GMT
Socold,
By my estimate of HadCRU data the first six months of 2009 are cooler than 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007.
So far 2009 is one of the top seven warmest years.
By year end, the cooling trend we have seen from 2002/3 should still be confirmed.
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Post by woodstove on Jul 29, 2009 12:58:52 GMT
glc. i.e. most of the 30+ deg hot spells have occurred in the last 20 years.
Apart of course from all the heatwaves that happened before then. www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/html/heatwv.htm
In the 40-year period from 1936 through 1975, nearly 20,000 people were killed in the United States by the effects of heat and solar radiation. In the disastrous heat wave of 1980, more than 1,250 people died. What's the US got to do with it? We were discussing Europe and the UK in particular. In any case 20,000 heat-related deaths is not actually that many over 40 year period. Across Europe, over 35,000 died as a result of 2003 heatwave alone. I believe the US is far better equipped to deal with heatwaves than we are in Europe. Far more homes and offices have air conditioning, so they tend to have less heat casualties per head of population. It is the poor and underprivileged who die during heat waves in the United States, by and large. And they can, and do, die in impressive numbers, particularly in major cities. Cold, though, here and elsewhere is far more lethal. Always has been and always will be. Bjorn Lomborg writes about comparative numbers of temperature-related deaths in Cool It: "In Europe as a whole, about two hundred thousand people die from excess heat each year. However, about 1.5 million Europeans die annually from excess cold…. Just in the past decade, Europe has lost about fifteen million people to the cold, more than four hundred times the iconic heat deaths from 2003."
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Post by glc on Jul 29, 2009 13:22:22 GMT
Ok,
Apart from 1976 & 1983 which were hotter in the uk than the recent heatwaves. The historical temp records may have been adjusted down to give a better warming slope for the alarmists but the facts remain.
I should take a day off if I were you. I remember 1976 very well and I remember July 2006, and the latter was on a different plane altogether. I have no trouble accepting the temperatures given in the met office records.
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