|
Post by glc on Jul 29, 2009 13:24:36 GMT
Socold,
By my estimate of HadCRU data the first six months of 2009 are cooler than 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007
I still think 2009 will go past 2007 and if the El Nino continues to develop may well end up warmer than 2004.
|
|
|
Post by magellan on Jul 29, 2009 16:13:19 GMT
Ok,
Apart from 1976 & 1983 which were hotter in the uk than the recent heatwaves. The historical temp records may have been adjusted down to give a better warming slope for the alarmists but the facts remain. I should take a day off if I were you. I remember 1976 very well and I remember July 2006, and the latter was on a different plane altogether. I have no trouble accepting the temperatures given in the met office records. I have no trouble accepting the temperatures given in the met office records. No doubt about that....
|
|
|
Post by magellan on Jul 29, 2009 17:13:45 GMT
Socold,
By my estimate of HadCRU data the first six months of 2009 are cooler than 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007I still think 2009 will go past 2007 and if the El Nino continues to develop may well end up warmer than 2004. Based on what? Intuition? Good luck. Unless SOI cooperates, it's a fat chance this El Nino will be more than a weak temporary release of ocean heat welling up from the deep to the surface, releasing it to the atmosphere, and land obviously. OHC is not increasing. Regardless, ENSO has no connection to "global warming" (by AGW standards), and this current short uptick will be followed by more dropping temperatures. Getting puffed up because 2009 will be warmer than 2008 is nothing to be proud of. BTW, your ill-fated attempt at downplaying the SSW effects on global temperatures was further displayed recently with more ignorance on the phenomenon. SSW occurs in winter, but it's effects can linger on for months depending on the intensity and several other factors. The fact is, I said NH temperatures would drop considerably, and they did, enough so to affect globally; not by any predictive power on my part, but rather as a result of researching the matter extensively.
|
|
|
Post by socold on Jul 29, 2009 18:15:34 GMT
Indications are that July SST anomaly is about as high as June, meaning HadCrut will probably show another month of about +0.5C anomaly.
|
|
|
Post by jimcripwell on Jul 29, 2009 18:25:25 GMT
magellan writes "SSW occurs in winter,"
I am not sure this is quite right. SSW affects the pole which is further from the sun. I dont think it only occurs in winter, since one of them, I have forgotten the date, started at the south pole, and then migrated to the north pole with the change of season.
|
|
|
Post by glc on Jul 30, 2009 8:53:19 GMT
BTW, your ill-fated attempt at downplaying the SSW effects on global temperatures was further displayed recently with more ignorance on the phenomenon. SSW occurs in winter,
I was, in fact, being sarcastic. Though it's still worth pointing out that the SSW had no effect whatsoever on the mean global temperature in the troposphere and, as I showed you, very little effect at the North Pole. There are several months in the UAH record which shows NP temperatures higher than in Feb 2009.
|
|