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Post by trbixler on Nov 1, 2009 5:07:40 GMT
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Post by trbixler on Nov 8, 2009 16:16:54 GMT
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Post by itsthesunstupid on Nov 8, 2009 16:29:34 GMT
That is side-splitting LOL! Conclusive proof that unemployment causes global cooling.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 8, 2009 16:38:52 GMT
Of course unemployment provides global warming! They don't have the money to run their air conditioneers, so it gets hotter. Any dufus would know this!
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Post by trbixler on Nov 12, 2009 0:50:51 GMT
Who would have thought about homogeneity while looking at larches? Its called team hokey or was that team hockey. www.climateaudit.org/?p=7720
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Post by itsthesunstupid on Nov 12, 2009 1:46:10 GMT
Who would have thought about homogeneity while looking at larches? Its called team hokey or was that team hockey. www.climateaudit.org/?p=7720 The refutation is settled. Any AGWist who denies it should be prosecuted like a war criminal. All serious statisticians agree. sarcasm/off
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Post by trbixler on Nov 12, 2009 14:02:58 GMT
Certainly larch homogeneity is a bit dry but then so much has been made of these arcane studies. Inconvenient larches along with inconvenient math has led to really inconvenient 10.2% unemployment numbers as business has been focused on goals that are unsustainable. No U.S. energy policy other than bad CO2 has helped China and India. It has dominated national focus along with the results of loans for all even if you cannot afford them.
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Post by Pooh on Nov 14, 2009 21:58:05 GMT
FYI: Here is an interesting summary of the Hockey Stick being run through the chipper, with a mention of the attempt to create a Hockey Stick from mud (lake sediments, varves). It is more concise than other, earlier postings. Edit. Apologies to Steve McIntyre and y'all. Reference to this program was posted on Climate Audit November 5, 2009, and I missed it there. The "Selected Quotes" may still be of some interest, and pique your curiosity enough to watch. www.climateaudit.org/?p=7650Watts, Anthony. “ Lindzen and McIntyre’s Finnish TV interview – issues that US journalists fail to investigate.” Watts Up With That?, November 10, 2009. wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/10/lindzen-and-mcintyres-finnish-tv-interview/. Abstract: (With Flash videos of TV Program) The video showing the climate research work of Dr. Richard Lindzen of MIT and Steven McIntyre of Climate Audit is now up on YouTube. One of the most compelling portions of the program has to do with the erroneous reversal of the Tiljander sediments, and Dr. Michael Mann’s stubborn refusal to acknowledge his error, even though other authors of peer reviewed papers have done so. In my opinion, salvation of the hockey stick seems to trump the salvation of good science practice. This program aired on MOT as Climate catastrophe cancelledFinnish Broadcasting Co. YLE, TV1, Nov 11th 2009 at 8.00 pm. If you do not speak Finnish, here is the program with English subtitles: Climate Catastrophe Canceled - Subtitled with 2 Translation(s) | dotSUB dotsub.com/view/19f9c335-b023-4a40-9453-a98477314bf2The transcript is here: McIntyre, Steve, Richard, PhD Lindzen, Martti Backman, and Anthony Watts. “ McIntyre and Lindzen to appear on Finnish TV documentary – transcript.” Watts Up With That?, November 9, 2009. wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/09/mcintyre-and-lindzen-to-appear-on-finnish-tv-documentary-transcript/. Selected (e.g., cherry-picked) Quotes from this transcript: - "A couple of years later, Briffa’s colleague returned to Siberia to drill new tree ring samples. When they were added to Briffa’s original data, the curve looked surprisingly like this: (lower curve appears on screen, the curves merge).
- "The hockey stick had disappeared, and the medieval warm period had been reinstated as warmer than the present.
- McIntyre: “Unfortunately, this updated Polar Urals result was never published and Briffa, in his works since 2000, has made no – - reference to this updated study”.
- "VO (Voice Over): The updated Polar Urals series was forgotten. Instead, Briffa replaced his original weak Polar Urals data in 2000 with new tree ring series drilled from the Yamal peninsula hundreds of kilometers away. With this data, the climate reconstruction looks like this: (lower curve appears)."
- "The well-known medieval warmth was disturbing to the scientists close to the IPCC, the so-called hockey team. In the mid 1990’s the American geologist David Deming received an astonishing e-mail, in which one prominent climate researcher announced to his colleagues:
- "Actor’s voice: “We have to get rid of the medieval warm period.”
- "(Picture of Deming’s written statement from the Senate Environmental committee website)
- "VO: Deming testified about the e-mail at hearings in the United States congress."
- "Briffa’s employer, the IPCC-affiliated climate research unit CRU maintains a global database of temperature measurements from weather stations. This database is central to the conclusion that global temperatures have risen to a worrying extent during the past 40 years. The CRU has combined thermometer readings into a global average with a method which it refuses to disclose, but which allegedly has brought added value to the raw data. McIntyre has requested the data from CRU director Phil Jones, but he has been turned down, and others as well.
- McIntyre: “An Australian named Warwick Hughes had asked for the data and Warwick Hughes had published some articles that had been critical of how the temperature histories had been prepared, and Jones said ‘Why should I send – we have twenty-five years invested in this, why should I send the data to you when your only objective is to find anything wrong with it?”, which is a very unscientific statement.”
- VO: The CRU database is the most important scientific justification for the demands that the most ambitious treaty in mankind’s history should be finalized in Copenhagen in December. In spite of this, there is no way to replicate its’ validity.
- Recently the CRU director Phil Jones has announced that the original measurement data does not exist anymore because of data storage difficulties. A dog ate the world’s most important scientific measurement homework.
- Lindzen: “Now, in terms of degrees of Celsius it says that we shall expect doubling the CO2 might contribute in the order of half a degree to the global mean temperature anomaly.”
Backman: “And how big a problem is that?” Lindzen: “None. We see that from month to month, year to year all the time. I mean the truth is, we have seen already two thirds, three quarters of a degree. This is not the period when the world is falling apart. It’s a period when the population has grown, when famine has been defeated, when people live longer than ever and there is large number of people that are supposedly terribly warming the earth, are living better for the most part.”
- VO: Lindzen’s study shows with measurements that the assumption of an impending climate catastrophe is basically wrong. The IPCC camp has reacted to the study with complege (sic) silence.
- Lindzen: “The models do exactly what they are supposed to, given their sensitivity. They all show the blanket thickens and it thickens by the amount consistent with the sensitivity of the models do of doubling of CO2. Do the same thing to nature, and it does exactly the opposite, and it does it more powerfully. So you have all the models agreeing with each other, and all of them wrong compared to nature.”
- VO: The question of water vapor feedback is the key in determining the threat of a climate catastrophe. The climate models assume that, the higher the surface temperature rises, the thicker the warming blanket gets. But is this really happening?
Lindzen and his team compared sea-level temperatures with the satellite-based measurements of incoming and outgoing radiation in the upper atmosphere. While all computer models show that, as the surface temperature rises, less radiation escapes to space: (graph)
- VO: The reality measured from nature is exactly diametrical:
(The 12th diagram ‘ERBE’ by Lindzen added to the graph set, showing a rising curve) VO: It turned out that, cloud cover changes as the surface warms, but it was not getting thicker; it was thinning. In this way, nature prevents the atmosphere from excessive heating. The cloud cover reacts to temperature changes like an eye’s iris to changes in light, by contracting or expanding. Lindzen calls this thermostatic behavior the Iris-effect.
- And what is the significance of this effect to the estimates of human-caused climatic warming?
- Lindzen: “It’s saying that, instead of the one degree being magnified, it should be shrunk by at least a half.”
- McIntyre: “There was another class of study, which used a series of tree rings from a scientist called Keith Briffa, from Northern Russia, from a site called Yamal, and this had an even bigger hockey stick-shape than the Michael Mann -hockey stick and this one – - has been used in multiple studies as well and so, over the past few years I’ve been trying to get information about how this particular series was constructed”.
McIntyre: ” It turned out that he (Mann) had modified a principal components method incorrectly and the modified method produced hockey stick-shaped graphs ninety-nine percent of the time. It also emphasized a class of proxies, strip-bark bristlecone pines that previous authors had said were not actually a temperature proxy” McIntyre: ”So after, after sort of, three years of frustration and trying to examine the data that Briffahad used and probably four years of people saying that this data supported the Michael Mann -work on other grounds, it was really quite frustrating to find that it was built up on ten trees that had been not randomly selected”.
- VO: So the Yamal data included only ten living trees from the 1990’s, and the rapid growth of these individuals caused the steep rise of the hockey stick blade. In Finnish dendrological studies, hardly anything would be said based on just ten trees. What’s demanded is at least 50 trees for each year, and several other quality criteria as well. How have these criteria been observed in the Yamal data?
- Richard Lindzen: “This field is completely sick in that way, I mean, you have models you know that they don’t work, you know they don’t reproduce a - phenomenon, but you bend data to fit the model. I don’t think this can go on for long without being embarrassing”.
- VO: A nice hockey stick has emerged from the Korttajärvi mud. What in the Finnish study signified cold, had been turned into warmth in the IPCC science and vice versa. This interpretation passed the scientific peer review.
Dr. Atte Korhola, professor of environmental change at the University of Helsinki, is an expert in lake sediment studies.
- Atte Korhola: “Some curves and data have been used upside down, and this is not a compliment to climate science. And in this context it is relevant to note that the same people who are behind this are running what may be the world’s most influential climate website, RealClimate. With this they are contributing to the credibility of science – or reducing it. And in my opinion this is alarming because it bears on the credibility of the field, and if these kinds of things emerge often – that data have been used insufficiently or even falsely, or if data series have been truncated or they have not been appropriately published (for replication), it obviously erodes the credibility, and this is a serious problem.”
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 15, 2009 0:46:31 GMT
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Post by Pooh on Nov 15, 2009 4:51:11 GMT
Perhaps a stake of holly? Just kidding. ;D Through the Mann/Briffa Hockey Stick studies. Better.
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Post by trbixler on Nov 17, 2009 14:19:31 GMT
More on homogeneity and drilling techniques.... who would have thought there was so much detail in making hokey sticks oops hockey sticks. www.climateaudit.org/?p=7747
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Post by magnus on Nov 18, 2009 5:03:16 GMT
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Post by dwerth on Nov 18, 2009 7:36:47 GMT
Magnus, I would like to thank you for linking the translated video. Regardless of whether or not the climate is changing, the scientific method including data transparency must be respected.
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Post by trbixler on Nov 18, 2009 13:39:21 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Nov 18, 2009 15:49:21 GMT
Excellent article. Love the quote "You mention his name in my community, people just smile. It's a one-liner to get a laugh out of a group of climate scientists," affirms Stanford University's Stephen Schneider. Talk about a Freudian response!!! Schneider has correctly theorized that the earth is going to either turn into a snowball or fireball. . . .just that he can't fix his premature ejaculation problem. OTOH, McIntyre says: "I never said I was proving or disproving anything…. I just don't think we should be thanking the people who make it harder to find out what's true." The nonsense that McIntyre is uncovering would not be tolerated in the financial sector and should not be tolerated in the science/academic/governmental agency sector either. At www.climateaudit.org/?p=7779 today McIntyre says with regard to a lack of reconciliation by hockey team members in their work in the face of published information to the contrary: "This failure to cite and reconcile opposite results is another instance of both shoddy practice by the scientists and all too typical indolent reviewing by senior journals. How could a competent reviewer of this article either be unaware of Ababneh's contrary results or not require a reconciliation?" In the financial sector auditing standards of workproduct are enforced. One does not need to be correct but one must meet reasonable standards of workmanship, review, and testing and the documentation of same in trying to be correct. . . .one can be held personally liable for becoming an advocate of a point of view in the face of evidence to the contrary without a careful and substantive reconciliation.
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