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Post by sigurdur on Dec 7, 2009 14:47:08 GMT
More correctly, there have been many studies showing that there was a difference in climate during the Medieval period that had worldwide impacts. Some areas were warmer, and some were cooler. Apparently just up the road from one of the less successful Greenland colonies the climate started to cool as they arrived just prior to 1000AD. They were tough enough to stick it out till 1350. Now the site (Nuuk) is warm and habitable enough to support a thriving settlement. Yep, and that evidence shows that Greenland is once again approaching the MWP temps. I hope it sticks around for quit some time.
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Post by aj1983 on Dec 7, 2009 17:55:02 GMT
For the people in Greenland, I hope so too. For the people here, I don't because most of our country is several meters below sea level. Ps: I never liked hockey anyway!
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Post by trbixler on Dec 10, 2009 2:34:58 GMT
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Post by trbixler on Dec 12, 2009 19:42:42 GMT
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Post by thingychambers69 on Dec 12, 2009 20:44:22 GMT
Once again, Mann has been shown to be a waste of space when it comes to environmental science.
If this is right, we are at the end on the holocene period. So we should be going through a cooling trend (some argue that we already are going through a cooling trend in the last 1000-2000 years) before the next dip into a new ice age.
Would any dare make a prediction about the next ice age?
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Post by trbixler on Dec 12, 2009 21:33:56 GMT
AGW has been such a poison its damage has been far and wide. When I was at a lecture by Dr. W Soon even a particle physicist present was literally afraid to speak, except to me privately. Even now Mann denies he used a proxy upside down. Briffa defends his tree. The team and their leaders hide in their ivory tower bunkers while Soros and Gore lead the world on. Obama and Jackson meet on the world stage while people throw bricks as it is not enough. Forget the fraudulent numbers that have produced the hockey sticks this is politics! Forget any "science" as this is a believers party.
Do you want to volunteer to tell this crowd that it is all a lie?
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Post by hairball on Dec 13, 2009 10:51:02 GMT
40,000 is actually a really small demonstration. In 2003 more than 100,000 demonstrated in Dublin against the Iraq war and we weren't even sending troops. That they had to fly people in from all over the world to make up the numbers at this one makes it even less impressive.
The one thing that people should learn from that post at WUWT is that the Earth spends most of it's time in icebox conditions and we should feel really blessed that we've had 10,000 years of Summer. Excessive heat sometimes kills people, rising sea levels -might- kill a few million, but a few years of global crop failures due to cold would easily kill a couple of billion.
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Post by spaceman on Dec 13, 2009 19:10:34 GMT
The church is in control of the science again. You know, for our own good.
If they can make up science to create a disaster, then when we do have something that is terribly wrong they can make up data to show the condition is fixed or non existent. Some of us probably already know of some places where that has been done.
The numbers are what we say they are. You don't have the numbers and we know you don't have the numbers. And we aren't giving them to you. AGW.
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Post by kielbasa on Dec 14, 2009 19:24:58 GMT
How to Make Your Own Hockey Stick "In short, it's a detailed how-to-guide for replicating the climate reconstruction method used by the so-called "Climategate" scientists. Not a perfect replication, but a pretty faithful facsimile that you can do on your own computer, with some of the same data they used." iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2009/12/fables-of-the-reconstruction.html
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Post by spaceman on Dec 17, 2009 3:55:40 GMT
kielbasa, Will that work with my financials? Will I get a hockey stick with my randon numbers of my bank account? I'm assuming that is what red noise is, a random generated field. I wonder if they used the same math for the current economic meltdown?
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Post by sentient on Dec 17, 2009 4:49:56 GMT
If this is right, we are at the end on the Holocene period. So we should be going through a cooling trend (some argue that we already are going through a cooling trend in the last 1000-2000 years) before the next dip into a new ice age. Would any dare make a prediction about the next ice age? Yes, I can easily help you out here. We live today in the Holocene Epoch, or Marine Isotope Stage 1 (MIS-1), which is the 6th interglacial dating back to the Mid Pleistocene Transition (MPT) about 800,000 years ago. Of those 6, 5 have lasted between 10,000-12,000 years, or about 10% of the time of a complete ice-age/interglacial cycle lasting about 100,000 years. The 6th one that didn't is critical, and we will get to it in a moment. It has been about 11,500 years since we melted our way out of the Wisconsin ice age. The 10-12kyr average age of the post MPT interglacials is well-documented to be about half of a precessional cycle, which varies between about 19-23kyrs long. We are at the 23kyr part of the cycle today, meaning 11,500 years is exactly half of the current precessional cycle. Could be ominous. But what about that 6th interglacial? That would be MIS-11 about 400kyrs ago, and it appears to have lasted about 30kyrs. It "skipped a precessional beat", and went 1.5 cycles. The 100kyr ice-age/interglacial cycle is paced by the eccentricity of our orbit about the sun, which also has a cyclicity of about 400kyrs between the periods when our orbit is least elliptical. We are at an eccentricity minimum now. So, 400kyrs ago, we were also at an eccentricity minima. Now this is where it gets VERY interesting indeed! Could we geoengineer the skipping of a precessional beat? In fact, it could actually be stupefyingly easy. Between this interglacial, MIS-1, and the last interglacial, MIS-5, there were 24 Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. D-O oscillations average about 1500 years long, and begin with a remarkably abrupt warming of about 8-10C on average in from just a few years to just a few decades, and then slowly relax back to the glacial state. The difference between the ice age and interglacial states is about 20C, so D-O oscillations can shoot us from about 1/3rd to 1/2 of this difference. Careful analysis of the GISP2 ice core from Greenland found that there are 3 classes of D-O oscillations, A, B and C. There is no difference between the abrupt warmings of the ABC classes, but the A classes decay rapidly back to the cold glacial state, and show no pattern whatsoever with CO2 concentrations. But the B and C classes seem to have a strong relationship with CO2., but again, show no correlation with the abrupt warmings, but evince a strong correlation with CO2 in terms of how they relax back to the cold glacial state, and only during the last half of the coolings. The B's relax faster than the C's. So if we are at an eccentricity minima today, and the Holocene is just about kaput, and if MIS-11 was also at an eccentricity minima and lasted 30kyrs, and if CO2 tends to ameliorate the decline back to the glacial state, the answer is blatantly obvious. If we want to skip a precessional beat ourselves, we should (multiple choice question): A) remove as much CO2 as we possibly can from the atmosphere B) pump as much CO2 as we possibly can into the atmosphere No models, no future fantasies derived therefrom. Just the cold hard facts of things which actually have happened. Are you warming to the answer yet?
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Post by poitsplace on Dec 17, 2009 5:23:18 GMT
While I agree that CO2 is the LAST thing we should be worried about with respect to global temperatures (especially since the likely "dangerous" warming the IPCC claims would only put us up to the proven safe holocene optimum temperatures)...I have a sneaking suspicion that the CO2 correlation in those is actually an artifact of overall climate subsystems (ice at the poles, while warming at the equator). Could be wrong but its something I thought about when looking into glacial period albedo (which is incredibly potent, BTW)
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Post by spaceman on Dec 20, 2009 19:15:31 GMT
poitsplace,
That would be very interesting to chart if co2 lags temps. Co2 levels would continue to rise as temps dropped. Talking about albedo, it is very bright here today in NJ, we had about 20 in of snow.
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Post by scpg02 on Dec 24, 2009 3:19:24 GMT
poitsplace, That would be very interesting to chart if co2 lags temps. Co2 levels would continue to rise as temps dropped. Talking about albedo, it is very bright here today in NJ, we had about 20 in of snow. We've even had an inch or two of global warming here in Sacramento.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 24, 2009 12:52:25 GMT
Unfortunately, the use of the proxy measures in Ice-Cores for CO 2, despite their having failed validation, appear to have the AGW proponents _convinced_ that CO 2 is only rising due to anthropogenic causes. So they will look at those temperature graphs, nod sagely and say "well that was THEN this is NOW and we are causing global warming this time and there will be no more ice ages little or otherwise as man is driving global temperatures." They totally disregard the biased and 'corrected' proxy metrics for CO 2 on which their hypothesis is based.
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