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Post by sigurdur on Oct 10, 2009 15:50:16 GMT
North Dakota isn't doing so hot either. 3 new record low max temps yesterday. 2 of them by several degrees. Damn......I hate this global cooling! To expound a bit, the temps in the Arctic as reported by satillite, are extrapolations, rather than direct measurements. That is the last info that I have. Can someone tell me if there is a new satillite that can read the Arctic?
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Post by trbixler on Oct 11, 2009 3:10:13 GMT
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Post by woodstove on Oct 11, 2009 14:10:34 GMT
Some of the records below fall within the "mind-boggling" category: RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 225 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2009 MTZ008>015-044>055-120328- ...RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR OCT 10 IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET DILLON AIRPORT 26 33 2008 GREAT FALLS 20 34 1959 MARTINSDALE 24 37 1959 SIMPSON 26 26 1959 HELENA 25 36 1959 CUT BANK 20 26 1972 WISDOM 29 36 1949 HAVRE 28 29 1959 BOULDER 19 40 2008 VALIER 18 38 1919 STANFORD 18 38 2008 TURNER 25 44 1985 WHITE SULPHUR SP 19 30 1924 CHOTEAU 18 35 1928 BELGRADE FIELD 30 39 1946 GOLD BUTTE 24 27 1959 LEWISTOWN 17 28 1959 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OCT 10 IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET DILLON AIRPORT 8 15 1987 GREAT FALLS 4 14 1919 MARTINSDALE 1 15 1987 HELENA 9 15 1987 CUT BANK 3 10 1977 VALIER 2 9 1919 STANFORD 0 10 1987 WHITE SULPHUR SP -1 8 1919 CHOTEAU -4 18 1977 GOLD BUTTE 2 14 1987 LEWISTOWN 11 12 1987 $$ Among the highlights: Several towns with MAXIMUM temperatures in the TEENS; Boulder (MT) breaking its record low maximum by more than 20 degrees; and Choteau's minimum temperature of -4 degrees Fahrenheit, breaking the old record by 22 degrees. Not ideal pumpkin-picking weather. I think we know where some of the Arctic cold ran off to... More records here (I couldn't make the link above work...): www.weather.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=RER
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Post by trbixler on Oct 11, 2009 15:07:25 GMT
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Post by magellan on Oct 12, 2009 2:50:57 GMT
Watch what happens now that OHC data has been updated through June 09. As the heat that is currently being displaced into the atmosphere and ultimately into space, there can be little doubt what will occur once El Nino fades away.
I'll venture to say NOAA has crapped their pants looking at the OHC update and wish they take a mulligan on their Winter forecasts from Sept.
The next La Nina may dwarf 2007/2008.
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Post by magellan on Oct 12, 2009 3:15:18 GMT
You're kidding right? You said: The satellite anomaly plots agree quite closely with the surface plots. Would someone else please explain the graph to glc? How can it be any simpler?
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Post by walterdnes on Oct 12, 2009 4:13:25 GMT
Frost warning in effect tonight for Toronto and especially suburbs away from UHI effect.
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Post by Ratty on Oct 12, 2009 5:54:35 GMT
[Snip] I'll venture to say NOAA has crapped their pants looking at the OHC update and wish they take a mulligan on their Winter forecasts from Sept. The next La Nina may dwarf 2007/2008. A mulligan? Is that a climate science term? PS: I know crapped is a medical term.
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Post by glc on Oct 12, 2009 8:16:49 GMT
Oct 9, 2009, 2:54am, glc wrote:Really?
Look familiar? Oh, but the trend! The trend! www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/offset:-.146/plot/uah/from:1998I'm not sure you understand what you're doing. You posted a graph showing a plot of Hadley-UAH differences. What is it supposed to demonstrate? What is the point it is supposed to show? You're kidding right?No I'm not kidding. You said:
The satellite anomaly plots agree quite closely with the surface plots.Apart from the fact I was referring to the global pattern of warming during August/September, I'm still not sure what you think you've shown. All you've done is producea plot which shows that, in general, Hadley anomalies will be larger than UAH anomalies - though there is quite naturally some variation (due mainly to different response times to ENSO fluctuations). But, of course, Hadley anomalies are larger than UAH anomalies. Hadley use a different, i.e. earlier, base period (1961-1990) than UAH (1979-1998), the anomalies are bound to be larger. On average, Hadley anomalies should be 0.15-0.2 deg higher than the UAH amomalies. Would someone else please explain the graph to glc? How can it be any simpler?Let me make the question easier. Does your point relate to (1) The anomaly differences themselves or (2) The variation in anomaly differences. (1) is not a vaid point for reasons described above. (2) may be more valid but variation is expected for reasons related to lagged resonse (also described above), but is not relevant anyway because I was referring to the current situation (perhaps not clearly enough) where the satellite (troposphere) temperatures have 'caught up' with the surface temperatures. To illustrate this consider the following: The GISS anomaly (Hadley not yet available) for September is +0.65. If we use the satellite base period (1979-98) then the GISS anomaly becomes +0.45. Therefore, the Sept figures (relative to 1979-98) are: UAH +0.42 GISS +0.45 RSS +0.48 See how it works. Once an El Nino shift has been established for a while the temperatures tend to fall into line.
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Post by icefisher on Oct 12, 2009 8:29:03 GMT
But, of course, Hadley anomalies are larger than UAH anomalies. Hadley use a different, i.e. earlier, base period (1961-1990) than UAH (1979-1998), the anomalies are bound to be larger. On average, Hadley anomalies should be 0.15-0.2 deg higher than the UAH amomalies. Only problem is the Hadley anomalies, and by extension the NOAA and GISS anomalies are not built on science.
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Post by glc on Oct 12, 2009 12:05:29 GMT
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Post by woodstove on Oct 12, 2009 14:27:15 GMT
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Post by trbixler on Oct 12, 2009 14:52:00 GMT
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Post by woodstove on Oct 12, 2009 15:13:59 GMT
Speaking of which I reached out to DMI with regard to the data having been stuck on October 7 and also the prolonged temperature spike above 80N. Here is what they sent: "We still have problems with the site, but only with updating of data. "The data them-selves are as they come from the nwp model. It seems that a high pressure system over the American side of the Arctic and a low over the European/Russian side, result in strong transpolar advection of air." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ So, according to them, the warm Russia/warm Arctic/cold North America is part of a single transit of air over the top of the world. To some extent, this can be seen here: At least some of the warmth appears to be streaming upward over Alaska well into the Arctic and then "shoving" the cold down into the Canadian Plains and upper tier of the U.S. From what I gather, leaving a "refrigerator door" open in this way leads to dramatic winter weather as Joe Bastardi among others foresee in the week ahead for the U.S.
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Post by byz on Oct 12, 2009 15:23:30 GMT
A high pressure is settling in over the UK. Looks like we could get a frost tonight (will kill the last of my potato plants). winds moving to the east and looking colder towards the weekend. It is colder than this time last year, which was colder earlier than 2007, which was colder earlier than 2006 (we didn't get the first frost that year till a week before Christmas). Are we seeing a trend here
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