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Post by missouriboy on Jan 31, 2018 8:46:15 GMT
Missouri, what is the base line for comparison of anomalies? Be gentle ... please. You can use any period you want, but I try to stick with 1981-2010 as it seems to be the most common. The base period mean is what you subtract from the observed value to get the anomaly. The general rule would be to use the same base period for creating all your anomalies. I'm not sure what base UAH is using.
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 31, 2018 11:29:30 GMT
Mo’boy-I note that the timeframe for most of the data in the plots above is during a positive alternation of AMO too.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 31, 2018 18:54:17 GMT
Mo’boy-I note that the timeframe for most of the data in the plots above is during a positive alternation of AMO too. And more importantly perhaps, the PDO. Here are January and February for the Great Plains (the AMO is in orange on the January graph). When one plots the UAH Jan-Feb anomalies on a separate Y-axis to the climate stations we note a rather extraordinary fit, with an anomaly variance range of about 3 to 1. Could the Great Plains really be a reliable proxy for the majority of the N American continent?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 31, 2018 20:42:37 GMT
Yes, because we are away from the beach.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 31, 2018 21:02:06 GMT
Yes, because we are away from the beach. Me thinks their algorithms also mask inland to avoid ocean "contamination". Dr Roy could perhaps provide a template outline. It is unfortunate that they do not publish a subdivision for West-Central Europe and the Heart of Siberia. Perhaps China.
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Post by duwayne on Jan 31, 2018 21:14:30 GMT
Missouriboy, Global temperatures are affected greatly by ENSO and volcanic activity. La Nina probably caused a lot of the temperature drop in 2008-2009. To see the effect of Solar activity, I think it's necessary to "mask out" the effect of ENSO. Clearly of drop of global temperatures by a half a degree below average at solar minimum while ENSO is neutral would be strong evidence of a significant Solar activity effect.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 31, 2018 22:03:24 GMT
Missouriboy, Global temperatures are affected greatly by ENSO and volcanic activity. La Nina probably caused a lot of the temperature drop in 2008-2009. To see the effect of Solar activity, I think it's necessary to "mask out" the effect of ENSO. Clearly of drop of global temperatures by a half a degree below average at solar minimum while ENSO is neutral would be strong evidence of a significant Solar activity effect. Duwayne: You are too smart to post a graph from SS. Look closer at it, look at the methodology, and you will observe why I make that statement. I am banned from SS because I am a nit picker. Showed how screwed up their stuff is and they sure didn't like it.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 31, 2018 23:15:18 GMT
Sounds like the current SS has parallels to Heinrich Himmler's mob.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 1, 2018 0:02:09 GMT
Sounds like the current SS has parallels to Heinrich Himmler's mob. Well, they dress up in Nazi uniforms too and think they are funny. The bunch over there wouldn't know science if it bit them in the butt.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 1, 2018 0:55:38 GMT
Missouriboy, Global temperatures are affected greatly by ENSO and volcanic activity. La Nina probably caused a lot of the temperature drop in 2008-2009. To see the effect of Solar activity, I think it's necessary to "mask out" the effect of ENSO. Clearly of drop of global temperatures by a half a degree below average at solar minimum while ENSO is neutral would be strong evidence of a significant Solar activity effect. To me, ENSO is just an oceanic heat regulator system. Most of the equatorial heat is in the West Pacific most of the time due to in situ accumulation and westward transport . Periodically heat moves eastward out of the western warm pool resulting in the transfer of atmospheric heat in the form of water vapor to the atmosphere further east. The western warm pool cools down but continues to radiate heat to the atmosphere. It may be that the total heat emission to the atmosphere increases in the equatorial areas due to El Nino ... but it does not transfer what is not there. Chart below shows that high solar periods are associated with a larger temporal accumulation of positive ENSO energy, irrespective of the hot-cold sequence itself. Low solar periods show the opposite. By itself this suggests a solar connection although some believe that geothermal heat may play a significant role. Your point is well taken but is likely more complex. The sun obviously heats a land area directly in a short time period, but that same area is subject to heating or cooling by atmospheric air masses whose heat (either in liquid or gaseous form) has been longer in transport, but whose source is the same ... lags. I will explore.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 1, 2018 21:41:33 GMT
Missouriboy, Global temperatures are affected greatly by ENSO and volcanic activity. La Nina probably caused a lot of the temperature drop in 2008-2009. To see the effect of Solar activity, I think it's necessary to "mask out" the effect of ENSO. Clearly of drop of global temperatures by a half a degree below average at solar minimum while ENSO is neutral would be strong evidence of a significant Solar activity effect. Duwayne: You are too smart to post a graph from SS. Look closer at it, look at the methodology, and you will observe why I make that statement. I am banned from SS because I am a nit picker. Showed how screwed up their stuff is and they sure didn't like it. Sigurdur, here's my excuse. I was looking for something that showed the effect of ENSO on global temperatures and this is the first thing that popped up. I should have kept looking.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 1, 2018 22:16:14 GMT
To me, ENSO is just an oceanic heat regulator system. Most of the equatorial heat is in the West Pacific most of the time due to in situ accumulation and westward transport . Periodically heat moves eastward out of the western warm pool resulting in the transfer of atmospheric heat in the form of water vapor to the atmosphere further east. The western warm pool cools down but continues to radiate heat to the atmosphere. It may be that the total heat emission to the atmosphere increases in the equatorial areas due to El Nino ... but it does not transfer what is not there. Chart below shows that high solar periods are associated with a larger temporal accumulation of positive ENSO energy, irrespective of the hot-cold sequence itself. Low solar periods show the opposite. By itself this suggests a solar connection although some believe that geothermal heat may play a significant role. Your point is well taken but is likely more complex. The sun obviously heats a land area directly in a short time period, but that same area is subject to heating or cooling by atmospheric air masses whose heat (either in liquid or gaseous form) has been longer in transport, but whose source is the same ... lags. I will explore. Missouriboy, I may not understand this chart but are the red and black lines plotted correctly? The mirror image seems unlikely. I agree with your description of ENSO, just moving heat around, but it does have a significant effect on global temperatures as they are calculated. Here's the Met Office recent 5 year forecast. They must be expecting a significant El Nino after the near tern effects of the La Nina are gone and certainly they aren't expecting low solar activities to drive temperatures down. But as Sigurdur correctly notes, sometimes in my haste, I post things from unreliable sources . www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/decadal-forecast-2018Keep us informed as to how this works out although I would suggest that you consider using the UAH anomalies rather than the Met Office numbers.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 1, 2018 22:16:22 GMT
Ya know what is a bit interesting? ENSO didn't seem to affect global temperatures until lately. According to temp reanalysis and ENSO reanalysis.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 3, 2018 15:46:39 GMT
This may be interesting to MissouriBoy and AcidOhm... Unearth forgotten weather records from across Europe...
About Weather Rescue
Unearthing and digitising historic weather records will help build a legacy of environmental information, contribute to new discoveries and unlock answers to questions about our weather and changing climate.
Without your help, information about weather and climate collected by generations before us will remain undiscovered.www.zooniverse.org/projects/edh/weather-rescue/
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Post by Ratty on Feb 3, 2018 22:33:21 GMT
This may be interesting to MissouriBoy and AcidOhm... Unearth forgotten weather records from across Europe...
About Weather Rescue
Unearthing and digitising historic weather records will help build a legacy of environmental information, contribute to new discoveries and unlock answers to questions about our weather and changing climate.
Without your help, information about weather and climate collected by generations before us will remain undiscovered.www.zooniverse.org/projects/edh/weather-rescue/ There's a lot of talent in the Zoo: Zooniverse Team
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