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Post by duwayne on Mar 12, 2021 21:28:45 GMT
An expressway interchange in Dallas Texas. It's actually more awesome from underneath. That is some fine engineering! From experience, I'll bet the civil engineers who designed and constructed this masterpiece still, in the back of their minds, worry about a speeding, heavily overloaded truck going way too fast that goes out of control and hits the exact point which causes maximum damage.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 11, 2021 23:00:18 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Mar 10, 2021 18:18:11 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Mar 9, 2021 22:24:50 GMT
US 7 Day Average New COVID CasesMy prediction was pretty good through mid-February. Now it's pretty bad.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 8, 2021 23:58:56 GMT
The rate that those with COVID are infecting others should drop as people are vaccinated and the potential victim pool is reduced.
From late December through mid-February the new cases dropped in line with that expectation.
However, since then the infection rate has actually increased somewhat. I originally thought this was probably temporary and tied to the extended cold/freeze episode in the south central area of the US. But the increase has not totally abated. Maybe it’s because of more aggressive COVID strains or relaxed social restrictions. The best explanation would be that is just an overstatement of cases due to growth in tests.
The increase I am concerned about is the infection rate. This is a forerunner of changes in new case growth or decline.
Unfortunately, we are now not all that far below an R0 value of 1 which is the dividing line between growth in COVID cases and decline. So all of a sudden we have gone from a fun ride away from COVID hell back to near a danger zone. We’ll see what happens this week.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 7, 2021 21:40:32 GMT
It’s interesting that Mann would publish a paper downplaying the AMO at this time. The warmists haven’t wanted to give the AMO any credit for contributing to the increase in global temperatures from 1977 to 2007 because this reduces the amount of warming that can be attributed to greenhouse gases. But, if global temperatures continue to remain flat over the next few years, they will need an explanation. It is still a little early, but as the global temperatures fail to produce the havoc they were predicting, I expected they would use the AMO to scare people. I expected them to say “Sure, right now temperatures are flat, but once the AMO enters its warming phase, the AMO plus the runaway greenhouse gas warming will destroy us all. After adjusting our models for the AMO, It’s even worse than we thought.” Of course, since Mann’s a warmist, he can flip-flop any time he wants with full support. On the other hand, if the AMO fizzles out and temperatures climb rapidly over the next 15 years, Mann may be right. In my opinion there is a lot riding on the AMO cool phase keeping the temperatures low. judithcurry.com/2021/03/06/canceling-the-amo/#more-27202link
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Post by duwayne on Mar 7, 2021 20:13:55 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Mar 5, 2021 17:37:56 GMT
How about this experiment. Take a cup of water and measure the temperature. Put it in your microwave and run the microwave for 1 minute. Check the temperature. Did it go up or down? Are IR waves long waves?
Are microwaves long waves?
Do long waves heat water or cool it? Here is a very good descriptive article on how active microwaves heats products. Perhaps the engineers in the room can describe how this would differ from shorter-wave passive CO2 spectra. Perhaps its acitive nature and magnetic realignment of flow may play a big role. The difference between an armored division with artillery and air support to a troop of pansy-sniffing Brownies? (Disclaimer for the Woke crowd - I AM NOT disparaging, slandering or abusing Brownies.) foodscience-technology.com/microwave-heating/I had forgotten that the heating of liquids in microwave ovens was caused by magnetic field manipulation which causes the liquid molecules to move vigorously and heat by "friction" rather than bombardment with microwaves (photons) which involves adding the photon energy to the molecule. So the "experiment" I referred to above isn't appropriate. The Greenhouse Gas thread shows why I'm certain Nautonnier's theory of longwave cooling isn't correct. I'm not going to repeat that thread, but Nautonnier's description of how water molecules evaporate from the ocean surface isn't correct. These molecules do not heat to boiling temperature in order to evaporate. They evaporate at relatively low temperatures because of a driving force which comes from low relative humidities in the air immediately above the ocean surface. In effect, there is "open space" between the air molecules which water molecules are "incentivised" to fill. When these water molecules evaporate, they grab energy from the water molecules around them to get the latent heat they need to evaporate. This surface evaporation goes on with or without downwelling longwave radiation and is little effected by the temperature of the oceans surface. Relative humidity of the air above is the driver. If there is 100% relative humidity, longwave photons can pour in all day long and water won't evaporate. The "cool" skin on the ocean's surface is like your cool skin when water evaporates off your arm. It's because water molecules are grabbing latent heat as they evaporate.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 4, 2021 23:11:56 GMT
Has it ever been experimentally demonstrated that water can be warmed by 'downwelling' infrared? If not then the base assumptions of CIMP6 seem to be incorrect. I have never seen any such experiments, but if anyone finds any, I would sure read them. I confidently make the statement that if you can't warm the oceans, you can't warm the planet. Please send me an argument of how that is not true. How about this experiment.
Take a cup of water and measure the temperature. Put it in your microwave and run the microwave for 1 minute. Check the temperature. Did it go up or down?
Are IR waves long waves?
Are microwaves long waves?
Do long waves heat water or cool it?
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Post by duwayne on Mar 3, 2021 16:48:59 GMT
The "FLU" variant peaked at the usual time and in a similar way. The authoritarian governors are not happy with DeSantis and Abbott. Newsome and Cuomo are in trouble. The rest of the Autdems should be pursued to the ends of their pitiful little worlds, and their pelts should adorn their respective Statehouses. The urge to quote Virginian Latin is strong. Autdem should become a term equivalent to Vandal. www.foxnews.com/politics/newsom-blasts-abbott-for-reopening-texas-absolutely-recklessMissouri, what do you mean by "The "FLU" variant peaked at the usual time and in a similar way."
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Post by duwayne on Mar 3, 2021 6:20:57 GMT
For what it's worth, I’ve put together a model to “guess” what will transpire with respect to COVID cases and deaths in the US over the next few months. Caution… this could be way off because everything is an unknown. I haven’t seen any other projections. Never-the-less, here’s what I’m seeing. Mid-JanuaryA total of 25 Million vaccinations. We’ll just be starting to see benefits of the vaccinations in the total numbers. Because of the Christmas and New Years holidays, any benefits will be largely offset. Mid-February60 million vaccinations in total. New cases per day will be cut in half and the deaths per day will also be halved soon after. Mid-March125 million vaccinations New cases per day cut by 85%. Mid-AprilClosing in on 200 million vaccinations. New cases and deaths down by 98%. Based on this scenario, there will still be 100 million vulnerable people at the end of April who have not been vaccinated and have not had COVID. Yet, new COVID cases could be very, very low. You have to understand the importance of Spread Rate or R zero to see why this is the case. When the above prediction was made on December 22, the 7-Day average of new cases was 220,000 and the "experts" were talking about worse things to come. The model projection was for a period of relatively level activity through the end of December and early January and that's what happened. The prediction was for new cases to then fall by half (110,000 new cases per day) by mid-Februry, and that's what happened. The next check point is mid-March, just a couple of weeks away. The model predicted cases would be down from December 22 by 85% to 33,000 cases per day. Is that possible? On March 1 the 7 Day average new cases was reported as 69,000 (Worldometer is the source for all numbers) which was essentially the same as 1 week earlier. This means new cases will need to suddenly drop by more than half in the next couple of weeks to match the prediction. I'm still thinking the model will be right and a renewed sharp downturn is ahead.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 26, 2021 17:52:59 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Feb 24, 2021 18:52:42 GMT
Leif Svalgaard has published a lot of articles in the past few years making the case that the sun’s “Modern Grand Maximum” didn’t happen. Chart 21 from this presentation shows his version of sunspot history. www.leif.org/research/How-to-Predict-Solar-Cycle-25.pptSvalgaard’s position has been that the solar insolation effect on earth’s temperatures has been about 0.1C from it’s lowest point to it’s highest point. This, of course, doesn’t prove that something unusual didn’t happen during the Maunder Minimum since there is not enough information to prove it one way or another. Also, Svalgaard is focused on Solar Insolation and it’s possible something else emanating from the sun affects earth’s temperature because of it’s effect on cloud cover or whatever. Don't know why, but the powerpoint presentation kept crashing on me after a few slides, so I didn't get to view the whole thing. Svalgaard could be right about TSI, but may be overlooking some points. I still think that the following video from Ben Davidson (Suspicious Observors) is the best comprehensive overview / documentation of what these other factors may be, and how each may effect Earth climate. This link may work better for accessing Svalgaard's paper. Click on item 3051 (PFD). Goto to Chart 21. www.leif.org/research/
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Post by duwayne on Feb 24, 2021 3:34:28 GMT
Leif Svalgaard has published a lot of articles in the past few years making the case that the sun’s “Modern Grand Maximum” didn’t happen. Chart 21 from this presentation shows his version of sunspot history. www.leif.org/research/How-to-Predict-Solar-Cycle-25.pptSvalgaard’s position has been that the solar insolation effect on earth’s temperatures has been about 0.1C from it’s lowest point to it’s highest point. This, of course, doesn’t prove that something unusual didn’t happen during the Maunder Minimum since there is not enough information to prove it one way or another. Also, Svalgaard is focused on Solar Insolation and it’s possible something else emanating from the sun affects earth’s temperature because of it’s effect on cloud cover or whatever.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 22, 2021 18:06:20 GMT
This is not what you want to see outside you window. That brings back some not so fond memories. I was on our company plane when it took off from Detroit. We were over Lake Erie at a few thousand feet when there was a large bang (explosion) and the plane jerked severely to the right and dropped. It felt like we were dropping into the Lake. There was no engine noise. The passenger across from me who could see the engine had a look of total panic on his face. The person behind me said "I can't die today. This is my birthday." After what seemed like forever but probably was only a couple of minutes, the pilots opened the cabin door and said 1 engine was still operable and they were going straight down into the Cleveland airport. They had approval for an emergency landing and as we landed the runway was lined with emergency equipment including firetrucks and medical vans. We landed without incident and deplaned on the runway. Oil was dripping from the remains of the engine. A part from the front of the engine had broken loose and went back through the engine causing the engine to break apart. As I walked to my car I was thinking how calm I was throughout the episode, probably from my mind blocking things out. However, as I was driving home I noticed my hands were trembling on the steering wheel.
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