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Post by duwayne on Mar 15, 2014 15:17:12 GMT
Is there a link which gives the historical daily ice values in tabular form?
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Post by duwayne on Feb 19, 2014 21:16:54 GMT
There seems to be a general agreement here that statistically we’re due for an El Nino. I don’t pretend to be able to predict the monthly ENSO oscillations, but I did note a few months back that based on the 1947-77 cool cycle an El Nino occurred about this time in the cycle and I surmised that the warm Kelvin wave underway in mid-2013 could lead to an El Nino. But that didn’t happen. Another warm Kelvin wave is now underway and this might be the time for the expected (sooner or later) El Nino. The El Nino 60 years ago was immediately followed by a strong La Nina which contributed to the domination of La Ninas over El Ninos during the 1947 to 1977 period. The January PDO was 0.30. It’s the first positive monthly reading for more than 3 years. There has'nt been an annual average PDO reading above zero since 2006. During 1947-77 the annual average PDO was negative 81% of the years. So statistically speaking, a positive PDO can be expected about 1 out of 5 years during a cool PDO cycle. After 7 years of negative annual readings we’re overdue for a positive annual PDO reading. So far the 2007-2037 cool ocean current cycle is continuing to pretty much replicate the 1947-1977 cycle pattern. The AMO continued its slide and went negative in January.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 16, 2014 17:21:34 GMT
Graywolf, so you confirm that your prediction of global temperature growth is 1C per decade in the near term. Here’s the history of global sea ice area during the satellite era. There’s not much change and certainly not enough to offset the fact that the albedo change due to sea ice differences is greater in the Antarctic than in the Arctic. The 7 to 10 degree warming over a period of decades you report must have been due to natural causes. Do flat temperatures for 15 years while CO2 has climbed indicate that we are entering such a period? You obviously agree that ENSO is an important factor in global temperatures. Cool PDO periods like the current one have historically resulted in more La Nina’s than El Ninos. These cool PDOs tend to last about 30 years. Isn’t it logical that we’re not in for much warming over the next 20 years, but instead might experience flat global temperatures like those during the last cool PDO in 1947-1977 when CO2 growth was similar?
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Post by duwayne on Feb 13, 2014 16:44:40 GMT
Had a good look through my post and I see no "1c per decade"? 98' no longer holds the crown for record global temp. Seeing as the noughties were warmer than the 90's I'm not able to see any 'pause' in warming? I do see a slowdown in the record rates we were warming at ( but then only in the old 3 measures and not in the new measure including Arctic warmth?). Personally ,should we lose the Arctic Sea ice then we will see extreme ,year on year, temp increases. Graywolf, your forecast on the Global Warming Predictions thread on Feb 9 was “2040 +3c on todays temps.” which I interpreted as more than 1C per decade. Tell me what you meant. The “new” global temperature series add in (exaggerated) warming in the Arctic and ignore the cooling in the Antarctic. But even then Hanssen, Trenberth and the Met Office agree there has been a 15 year pause. You expressed concern (on the Arctic ice thread) that the loss of Arctic ice will decrease global albedo since sea water absorbs more radiation than ice and cause temperatures to rise. You ignore the Antarctic ice is growing at a rate equal to the Arctic ice loss. And the edge of the Antarctic ice is much further from South pole than the Arctic ice is from the North Pole. Due to the declining angle of the sun’s rays as the distance from the poles increase, there is significantly more albedo gain from growing ice covering sea water in the Antarctic than there is loss from the Arctic.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 12, 2014 18:05:34 GMT
Will the Hadcrut3 1998 temperature record be broken soon? The Hadcrut3 anomaly for 1998 was 0.548C. A least squares calculation shows the global warming trend for the 1977-2007 period was increasing by 0.017C per year, so in 2007 the trend temperature vs 1998 was 9 years times 0.017 per year or 0.153C higher. An identical super El Nino in 2007 would then give a 0.548 + 0.153 or 0.701C anomaly. And since I believe the global temperature trend is and will remain flat for 2007-2037, then the 0.701C would hold throughout the period for a 1998-like Super El Nino target.
During the ocean current cooling phase, Super El Ninos are unlikely. Also, the 1998 El Nino aligned almost perfectly with the calendar year resulting in a maximum temperature effect. So I believe it’s certainly possible, but still less than a 50-50 chance that the 1998 Hadcrut3 record will be broken in the next 20 years unless the Met Office “readjusts” their bases for calculating the anomaly as they are prone to do. If it’s close, they won’t want to miss the opportunity.
Graywolf predicts a warming of over 1C per decade. So with the passage of 15 years since the 1998 record, a similar El Nino should result in an anomaly of 1.5 + 0.548 or an anomaly in excess of 2C. On that basis even La Nina years should easily break the record. A Super El Nino like the one in 1998 which generates only a marginal new record (0.701C) would prove that the 2007-2037 pause is continuing.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 9, 2014 17:34:42 GMT
A fall by 2040? The only thing to fall by 2040 will be the grain output across the mid west! (LOL) 2014, El Nino incept. Top 3 global temps. Arctic ice relaxes back toward 2012 low. 2015, El nino ( Super?)year. record global temps. Arctic ice below 2012 min ( across the board). 2017 return of the Arctic 'perfect melt storm' , ice free conditions by 3rd week Aug. late 2017/all 2018, climate chaos as polar jet bugs out and Sub Tropical Jet lurches north dragging climate belts with it,2018, Arctic ice rebounds to plus 1 million kms2 at min. 2019 Ice free Arctic by mid aug, climate chaos continues, Amazon drought and wildfires. 2040 +3c on todays temps. Amazon severely reduced near permanent nino conditions across ENSO zones, expansion of the desert belts, mid west dust bowl, central Eurasia dust bowl. Graywolf, any idea as to why global temperatures have been flat for the past 13+ years while atmospheric CO2 concentrations continued to grow steadily? What will change to make temperatures grow by more than 1C per decade?
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Post by duwayne on Feb 3, 2014 19:03:34 GMT
Sig, it's great that Leif responded to your question, i.e. that he lean's toward the side of lower activity for the next couple of cycles but with little certainty.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 3, 2014 18:00:49 GMT
Sigurdur, thanks for finding and posting Leif's paper. It's interesting that he didn't mention the Livingston and Penn effect. He at one point seemed to believe there was a distinct possibility for Cycle 25 to be nearly spotless. The latest chart I found... link ....shows the rate of decline of the umbral magnetic field has slowed considerably and any effect on Cycle 25 may be small. I'm surprised that Leif is so cautious about making any projection of Solar activity. He must have some opinion.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 1, 2014 19:26:48 GMT
The final prediction resulted from a debate between Hathaway and Leif Svalgaard, who urged a lower maximum. See: www.leif.org/research/Leif predicted a lower maximum for Cycle 24, but it wasn't until he saw the data from the end of Cycle 23. He deserves a lot of credit for knowing what data to look for and taking the risk of making his forecast on a theory which was not widely accepted. But, I recall that he was very skeptical about an impending secular reduction in Solar activity, particularly when it was proposed by someone who based it on planetary movements and barycenters. Do you know if he believes he can predict the Solar activity of future cycles? Hathaway was wrong on Cycle 24 but he seems to be leaning toward the possibility of weaker cycles in the futures based on historical trends.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 1, 2014 18:30:32 GMT
Sigurdur, could you be more specific. Is it your prediction that the Hadcrut3 will average -0.1C for 2007-2037?
My 7-year old prediction is that global temperatures will be flat for 2007-2037. This prediction goes back to the previous Cycle 24 Board (and actually to another web site a little before that). If you go back to page 1 of this thread which is the first page of the “new” Board, I describe the method for determining the specific flat temperature. It is the 2007 temperature trend based on a least squares fit of the 1977-2007 temperatures. For Hadcrut3 this is 0.47C. If my prediction is 0.6C too high, then the Hadcrut3 anomaly would average -0.1C for the 2007-2037 period.
At the time I made this forecast (based on a 60-year ocean current cycle) there were many skeptics who also argued that the IPCC was significantly overestimating global warming. But there were very few who were predicting flat or cooling temperatures and the ones who were, did it mostly on the basis of reduced Solar activity and the Maunder Minimum.
This Solar cooling seemed like a “possibility” to me (not what I felt had the high probability of the ocean current cycle) so I included a proviso with my prediction which is stated on page 1 of this thread…
“If the sun “dims” for a number of years (fewer than normal sunspots and reduced overall solar activity) as some believe or there is prolonged volcanic activity or a large meteorite hits then Global temperatures could be much lower than predicted above.”
My interest in the Cycle 24 site stems from its earlier focus on Solar activity and the possibility of a dimming sun.
Since I made my forecast, two key things have happened. Global temperatures have been flat. As a result my prediction is no longer an extreme position. In fact with the likes of Judy Curry and others, this is slowly becoming the mainstream view. The second thing that happened is that Cycle 24 is looking to be weaker than any cycle for the past 100 years or so. So the odds of Solar-based cooling have increased. Hathaway says Maunder Minimums are typical of the sun 10 to 15 percent of the time. But other than noting that fact, I haven’t seen a rush to predict that we are entering a Maunder Minimum by the so-called mainstream experts. And moreover, how this affects global temperatures is not so clear. As I’ve stated before, I’m disappointed by the lack of specific global temperature predictions and if people are convinced that a dimmed sun is probable where are the specific predictions? How cold will it get? When? How long?
Sigurdur and Douglavers, you are breaking new ground. I labeled my first forecast MaxCon 1.0. So far I haven’t seen a reason to change it since I still think I have the effect of the ocean current cycle about right. But as I said before I’m always contemplating whether I should update this to MaxCon 2.0 which would include the effect of a dimmed sun.
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Post by duwayne on Jan 30, 2014 21:25:26 GMT
From the time I first posted my first forecast here years ago, I noted that there was no basis for the IPCC modelers’ claim that aerosols were responsible for the flat temperatures from 1947 through 1977. Their plug factors were bogus. Guess what. The IPCC has now discovered that the aerosols didn’t have the cooling effect they were supposed to have had during that period. linkAnd guess what. They didn’t discover this until after the recent AR5 report was published. In another few years as the global temperatures remain flat they’ll catch up to the fact that there is an approximately 60-year natural ocean cycle which many of us have known for a long time. Will this be just after AR6?
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Post by duwayne on Jan 30, 2014 19:30:21 GMT
Hathaway said something in the above article that I hadn't heard from him or others like him in the limited time I spend on this subject. He indicates that over history the sun is in a Maunder Minimum-like state 10 to 15% of the time. If this is true, it certainly increases the possibility that we are now entering such a period. This still leaves the question of exactly how the slight reduction in Solar activity could have a major cooling effect, but this plus the observations of cooler temperatures at the time of the Maunder Minimum certainly gives cause for concern.
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Post by duwayne on Jan 26, 2014 18:07:36 GMT
Another 3 months have passed and it's time again to update my global temperature prediction from 2007 of flat global temperatures (Hadcrut3 anomaly at 0.47C) for 2007 through 2037. The beginning Hadcrut3 anomaly is based on the 2007 anomaly from a least squares fit of the 1977-2007 data.
Through the end of 2013 the average Hadcrut3 temperature is running slightly below my prediction at 0.41C.
The PDO was predicted to remain predominantly in the cool phase for 2007-2037 and average around -0.6 which was the 1947-1977 average. It's running slightly cooler with an average of -0.8 for 2007-2013.
ENSO as measured by the multivariat ENSO data was forecast to average -0.3 for 2007-2037, the same as 1947-1977, and that's what the average is so far.
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Post by duwayne on Jan 16, 2014 16:35:56 GMT
I have been ignoring this site because of the title of this thread.
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Post by duwayne on Dec 30, 2013 16:26:56 GMT
www.leif.org/research/Long-term-Variation-Solar-Activity.pdfThe long–term evolution of solar activity is key to understanding variation, trends, and causality 7 of the Sun’s influence on the environment of our Earth. We examine the evidence for such changes 8 using direct observation and several proxy-based reconstructions of past solar activity and find that 9 there is no consensus, or to be more blunt: we simply do not know with any degree of confidence 10 how the variable star, our Sun, has varied over the past 400 years, not to say over much longer time 11 scales before that. It is thus di cult to assert future risk and to predict what to expect. The variation 12 on the time scale of an 11-year solar cycle is well in hand, but is of less interest, because of its 13 cyclic nature, than the question about the existence of the secular variation, if any, of the ‘quiet’ 14 Sun. Is there a varying background which dominates all other variations and forms the first-order 15 forcing and influence on our environment? We do not know Sigurdur, thanks for posting this even though it provides very few answers with respect to the sun's influence on global temperatures and little hope for anything solid in the near future.
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