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Post by karlox on Apr 5, 2014 8:39:05 GMT
One question I have Code: A very active hurricane season in North Atlantic would contribute to a decrease or an increase of Global Mean Temps for a given year? Talking abut Pacific El NIÑO would warm temps, LA NIÑA quite the opposite, but what about exceptionally high or low hurricane seasons? Thanks in advance
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Post by karlox on Apr 3, 2014 13:01:50 GMT
www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525Looks like I'm not the only one wondering if this Nino will form a natural segway into another period of accelerated warming? This time though we also have the Arctic adding into any other 'natural' augmentations promising a period of more rapid temp rises that we saw in the 76-97 warming spike? The rapid , and poorly predicted, formation of the 97' Nino was heralded by a super typhoon accelerating the KW's progress. The upcoming tropical storms appear to bring a similar set of natural aids to the forming Nino over the next few weeks? Interesting article... So Oceans temps-heat and tropospheric water distribution is what really matters. I wonder why scientist make either papers on ENSO-PDO or AMO (which different phases might help increase or decrease average temps) but never found any reading putting all these ocean related cycles together... Same with Antartica current status versus Artic-Greenlands... Seems we´ve got a lot to learn and discover, and this ´hiatus´ does show -in my opinion- that we "know" far less than media pretends regardinG natural climate variability weight on global climate-weather, and even what would a doubbling of atmospheric CO2 could bring...not saying THAT would be good, just that I think we DO NOT KnOW...Interesting times... From the paper: "That opens the door, he says, to the possibility that warming from greenhouse gases is driving La Niña-like conditions and could continue to do so in the future, helping to suppress global warming. “If all of that is true, it’s a negative feedback, and if we don’t capture it in our models they will overstate the warming,” he says. (but that is quite the opposite of what was being said in the 90´s)
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Post by karlox on Apr 3, 2014 7:20:15 GMT
Ref paper above -if I get it right: there is no hint on external forcing of AMO before Little Ice Age 250 years ago... none? Strange... They refer to tree-rings reconstructions, and I have always wondered about accuracy of such reconstructions since for my observations growing rings or marks (such in my catcus) depend yearly on both rainfall and temperatures, so both parameters account and not neccessarily in same direction and different combinations of both might bring same result as far as growth rate... Most probably I am missing something -better knoledge on my side- to understand paper´s implications...
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Post by karlox on Apr 1, 2014 7:54:04 GMT
"The world faces threat to food supply, conflicts over water rights and growing inequality": TRUE "The only option to is cut emissions" : FALSE --- Or perhaps either world´s population climbing from 4 to 7 billions compared to GHE exponential growth is just showing our ´Success´ as a civilization? Floods, droughts, extreme weather events... shall naturally affect far more people in far more places that were underpopulated a few decades ago... Perhaps much more should be done to prevent further building in inadequate land? (O no, they say: just cut breathing!) --- My conclusion: REAL mankind-global problems and threaths are many and not simple ones. Our global economy is gsomehow an unleashed hungry dog causing lots of harm and pain to billions, and crossed dependencies make local crisis potencially very dangerous... but they pretend we should only care about CO2? ---
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Post by karlox on Mar 30, 2014 15:54:26 GMT
Yep, but what is disappointing is that the Kelvin Wave seems to have surfaced at approx 120degrees east. To become an effective El Nino, that wave has to stay submerged and only rise when it hits the South American continent. Starting to look like this one is going to be a very minor one, or a flat out bust. I went from couldn't see it, to yea, I think it is going to really happen, to crap......... You Sigur and Graywolf know by far much more than me... I wonder if somehow Niño-to-be-born accumulated Heat-energy "discharges" elsewhere and at the wrong time and place is most probably bound to be a weak one? That could be what mostly happens during a cold PDO phase? Doesn´t the stubborn Warm pool in north Pacific and correspondent Blocking high ´round Bering and North America west coast during this winter tell us something about other "ways" HEAT-Energy from central Pacific might be dissipatin beyond EL NIÑOs events? Any info or opinion much welcome!
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Post by karlox on Mar 30, 2014 8:25:43 GMT
It seems stronger central pacific equatorial easterly currents are building up. Please check link and comment... link
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Post by karlox on Mar 27, 2014 9:06:25 GMT
By the way... 1- can´t see any hint of EL NIÑO here... Could you? 2- also notice that large cold water area from western Africa between Gibraltar and the equator!!
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Post by karlox on Mar 27, 2014 9:02:11 GMT
This large cold water pool is coincident throughout this winter with where recurrent "explosive cyclogenesis" (galerns) have been stubbornly developping heading to UK, France and eventually further South... Record wawes and tides affecting western European shores week after week...
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Post by karlox on Mar 25, 2014 7:58:20 GMT
Might be right but there is TOO MUCH of nationalistic rethoric and feelings involved -reminds me of Hitler´s rise- and russians really think their country is being abused by US, NATO and EU... Besides, something to be affraid of is a likely "dominó-effect" Big Crisis affecting western economies which "recovery" is based on very weak foundations... Until we adapt this might affect us in many ways. As an example: Spain Tourist industry and our 26% unemployment rate badly needs russian clients -among others- which are increasingly coming to our shores. Planned holidays cancellations have already started...
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Post by karlox on Mar 24, 2014 20:33:45 GMT
AGW is making it harder to find intelligence among some analyst?
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Post by karlox on Mar 24, 2014 20:27:58 GMT
Good analysis. But that way is full of dangers for Russia as well. Russia is bound to a demographic-winter, while China... Russia´s GNP is lower than... ITALY´s, for instance... Being stil a main Nuclear power and its natural ressources is the only real long run estrenght they have... Perhaps they´re bound to become increasingly dependent of Big China? Russian people mostly think Putin is a great leader... THAT worries me!
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Post by karlox on Mar 20, 2014 7:59:18 GMT
Pacific Ocean currents view (seems stronger easterly equatorial ocean surface current is building up) Surface Ocean currentsHope EL NIÑO yet to come could be a moderate one since strong EL NIÑO brings extra floodings and droughts and fishery problems through the Pacific Basin and further... (though it might help Sigur! )
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Post by karlox on Mar 19, 2014 10:13:30 GMT
But this pro-anti AGW discussion keeps us away for real concerns and issues that should focus our priorities. Mankind and our social evolution to the present point of a global-trade system and global inter-dependance should bring a Common Shared Goal and compromises regarding Oceans, Rain forest and supply of basic needs and means of life for the poorest of this world. Half degree up or down just doesn´t matter if you are starving anyhow. Rain forest destruction does affect mankind present and future in many ways... besides enhaced local weather shifts due to de-forestation... I feel outraged when I learn how mining and oil-gas production in africa is performed by countries and companies getting greatest benefits while keeping natives and populations under poverty... That´s NOT FREE-Trade to my knowledge, not FAIR free trade for sure.
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Post by karlox on Mar 17, 2014 9:22:34 GMT
"The whole enterprise of estimating extinction risk due to climate change is underpinned by a static and fragile view of nature. The assumptions underlying these analyses can be tested (and are false), but the “extinction risk” industry has no interest in examining them. Combining the choice of high-end warming scenarios with fragile models of species responses to warming leads to alarming claims like 50% of all species are endangered by climate change. These claims have no basis in reality. Species are at far more risk from other human activities, such as subsistence hunting" Climate Change and the Biodiversity Crisis-So we are destroying rain-forest in South America, Africa and Asia... -Using oceans for hiding our trash and dangerous waste products and overexploiting fishing areas while most of this frontier is yet unexplored... -Increasing hunting impact on wildlife in Africa and others due to an increasing population and poverty figures... -Running short of fresh water ressources due also to population increases and food-supplies growing needs... -Billions living under poverty... BUT yet we should only worry about climate change to come??? We are leading first human-driven mass extinction in Earth´s history, regardless what global mean temps trend say... This overwhelming contradiction is what I most hate about Climate Change Policies and discussion,which I find being neither green nor social...
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Post by karlox on Mar 15, 2014 8:17:33 GMT
But a Low-cost economy scheme is somehow deflactionary by its own nature: - Increasing part-time-low-cost jobs and decreasing salaries and incomes affecting middle-classes as well. - Which moves millions to reset their consumers habits to cheaper goods and services choices -many of them imported- : Less you earn Less you consume. This is what "none-fair-play" free Global Market brings to declining western countries. My Hope: China is assuming its Growth must rely more on domestic market and its emerging middle class is demanding cleaner air, medical insurances... that would be "some" fair-play at least... (Paradoxical...So our middle-classes destiny is probably linked to Chinese middle classes further growth and success; wether we like it or not...)
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