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Post by karlox on Feb 14, 2010 0:16:49 GMT
I would like to launch a question to anyone that might have an answer: Is there any co-relation between ENSO index and AO and NAO index? I know they don´t mean or measure same parameters (pressure versus water temp etc), but I wonder if El Niño or La Niña phases correspond somehow to a much more likely positive or negative AO and NAO index. This winter in Northern Hemisphere is clearly marked by continous negative AO and NAO index, and same time El Niño is striking hard... Any relationship? Should it be the other way round? What do historical records show? Please enlighten my ignorance...
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Post by karlox on Feb 13, 2010 23:54:49 GMT
Hairball, I can see you also know how ´the rich´ manage this world... and I agree indeed. But you´re sort of comparing ´green energy´with other economic bubbles such as Properties, I guess (burbuja inmobiliaria/negocio del ladrillo, which means ´brick bubble´ the way we say it, and suffer from it, by the way)... but if I can afford -no matter how expensive still is- a windmill in my property or a solar panel on my roof (here is Spain we can get some sun, you know...) then I simply cannot do it by myself... need permissions, forced to sell my energy production to the Power Companies, lots of papers... they just don´t want us to be ndependent! Sun is free, wind is free, that´s the pointl ... And by ´they´ I mean the ones that are selling you and me gas, oil, electricity etc. Ireland (great land, I love it!) is a very windy country; my question is: Are you really sure that windmills farms couldn´t support a sustantial part of your countries energy needs if conveniently sponsored and supported by your Goverment? Would that harm you anyway? I can´t see how could that be so... In Spain -which is highly dependent on oil imports- we are undergoing a dramatic switch towards clean energy sources -nuke excluded- and at least we are somehow in the right direction (some more nuke needed though in the meantime, in opposition to my Goverment´s current policy, but I am to be blamed for being too ´open minded´ even for a greenfreak as I consider myself) If Democracy is the last thing on the minds of Western governments figure it out what´s on the mind of governments from such countries as Saudi Arabia, China... and think who is making big bussiness with them, but don´t go look too far away for that.
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Post by karlox on Feb 13, 2010 22:52:09 GMT
Pidgey, I´ve found your links very interesting... and closely related to my point of view by the way. Poistplace, I am not saying we should crash our global economy sharply switching -or trying to- from the old model to a new one being much more ecological effic and socially sustainable. That simply cannot be done that way. But be sure that Big Oil and Nuke lobbies´ main interest is to squeeze the orange until its last juice-drop is gone... no matter what the real cost for all of us is going to be...They only care for their profit (namely including shareholders, which saddly also includes quite a few of their future victims) So, this case, in my opinion, Public interest must be sustained by our Democratic Goverments, provided they are not already in such kind of lobbies and companies pay-roll...Can you figure how much money and efforts are they investing trying to convince us of how good fossil power sources have been and will keep on being in the future? Reading through these threads, sometimes it looks the only lobby on Earth is AGW people! Come on! Think, please.
Defrosted Artic? Great!! Now we can get some more Oil out of there and get all these new Reservoirs ready to be used for our own good sake and growth... that´s how it works!
I would be more than happy if I could only witness -for instance- how USA´s citizens would cut their water and energy expenses to European standars... but by the time USA could perhaps make it -if ever- China, India, and one thousand millions more ´round the world, will be probably consumming twice as much as both Europe and USA together...
We should fight for our energetic independence for the sake of both our planet and democratic societies, and that means sacrifice, no doubt.
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Post by karlox on Feb 13, 2010 21:51:50 GMT
Hi Poistplace, when you say that ´Pollution in the industrial nations has been drastically reduced...` you´re certainly right... but this is true for -may be- one third at the most of global population... meanwhile another third is about to jump from third to ´second class´ world and just committing and repeating same growth patterns and errors... and their aim and main goal -I am talking, for instance, about China- is growth by any means, and if -by the way,why not?- they can make good bussiness and good profits selling solar panels half the price, paying one tenth of a mean western salary for a 12 hours a day working journey... well, they will take that too for sure! And never forget that this is all planned by a central authoritarian government, which only leift motiv is Growth and Power... but we are too many people around already... no place for next generation of 2000 millions new drivers... China... uff! is it our future? and -by the way- world´s main financial powers and big companies worldwide are first ones making good bussiness with them... it´s us, plain good-willed people which are the ones to be crashed and trapped in the middle of this power game... that´s how I regard it... sorry for I am not very optimistic at all... I feel we are reaching sort of a breaking point -worldwide- and that too many lines are converging into something which doesn´t look good at all... Regards karlox (nick) you can call me Carlos, real name Madrid. Spain
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Post by karlox on Feb 11, 2010 8:43:59 GMT
Climate Changes (by definition not including weather oscillations), foreseen shortage of main natural resources availability -such as gas, oil, coal, uranium- world´s population steady growth, current status of unbalanced wealth distribution (20% of humans consuming 80% of resources), strongly overpopulated and emerging economic countrys, especially China and India, increasing dependence of USA, Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea and other smaller developping countries to non-friendly, mostly non-democratic regimes (check China´s investments in USA Federal Debt, location of oil main deposit, coltan, uranium...) increasing polution of waters, air and land, forest destruction, all of them associated to our prevailing ´growth model´... Well I am not very optimistic for what we could expect for our lifes and economy in the not-so-far future ahead, not to mention likely foreseen conflicts risks -specially from Eastern Africa through Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Middle East, Iraq, Iran, Afganhistan, Pakistan and India (draw the line in the map, as this new social, religious an political tectonic fault might cause severe political and economic disturbances to all of us not long ahead, not to mention Venezuela and mostly corrupted African countries) and don´t forget all that social dumping, mainly in Asia, which we should fight back if we want to have a chance mankind should prevail...
My point is that coal, oil, and gas consumption cuts are a MUST for the most wild expending countries, specially USA... even from a highly patriotic minded point of view it is unacceptable the high degree of dependence to non-democratic societies we are reaching, regardless one is AGW or not! Same with health: keep on burning increasing amounts of coal, oil and gas is a threat to billions in mankind, specially the poor that haven´t got the choice to get away from polutants and live close, over and around them. So it might be very costly, it shall mean sacrifices, but letting aside Global (non) warming discussion, there are quite plenty good reasons to support emerging clean power sources, and more funds for its investigation.
To put a man in Moon was a fulfilled challenge, to provide clean, affordable energy to over half of the population -which for our own sake should not repeat our errors in their own legitimate pursuit of happiness- and reducing same time our per-capita energy comsumption (efficiency) is the Challenge Mankind have for this century. If we fail we´ll collapse. AGW or anti AGW discussion is missing the point, reality is much more complex and shouldn´t be analysed using only green, red or blue glasses as most of us do according to our ideology, nationality or personal interest. Thanks for all your good opinions I always enjoy Carlos from Madrid (Spain)
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Post by karlox on Dec 27, 2009 10:23:25 GMT
Some good wishes for New Year… I wish that in 2010 honest, intelligent, well prepared and above all, independent scientist from all over the world -being both pro and against AGW- were able to work together, confront their theories, listen to each other, agree to propose new researches, conduct them jointly and openly discuss as a team about their findings and results. Not for people being directly or indirectly financed by Oil, Power or any other business group neither for these others living from Public Funds coming from the enormous bureaucratic machinery of entities such as the United Nations. In this forum I’ve found people honestly defending their different positions but most times too radical attitudes either side block any possibility of a positive exchange of opinions which might lead us to any kind of shared conclusions or agreement… Too much “politics” and too many pressure groups, taking this case the worst meaning of “politics” for many free citizens…too little science laying behind positions of large groups both sides of this new unfounded ideological border line that I believe has been created to fulfill private interest corresponding to the above mentioned Lobbies and same with other AGW groups and entities. By the way: non-citizens living under Totalitarian regimes -such as Chinese people- have not even got the chance to freely decide any pro or against attitude about nearly nothing… And leaders of such a kind are meant to be our partners? My opinion: “It´s NOT the warming… stupid!” First of all it’s all about Democracy and democratic or non democratic approaches to the world’s people real-current and most urgent problems: Starvation, severe poverty, fossil water resources being over exploited, man made rain-forest retrieval, many African and Asian countries -wealthy in natural resources such Oil, Gas, Minerals- being ruled by corrupted totalitarian regimes which are being paid and maintained by such Companies… Lawless territories expanding in Africa, Asia and America… It’s all about social and environmental dumping in developing countries: radical human resources exploitation (no rights or regulations for workers) and none or little environmental controls and such countries competing against companies and groups in western Europe, North America, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and other South and Central American countries which are subjects of much more severe controls and which do mostly practice fair-play… although some of these companies behave quite differently depending on what part of the world we are talking about… It’s all about people’s health being threatened by air and water pollution… It’s all about people… and democracy… and control of the powerful. Why has it all been reduced to Warming or Cooling? Why do we always think that our visions of our little worlds -what we feel and see in our respective homelands and living areas- marks the sign of possible climate changes “urbi et orbe” My best wishes to all of you for 2010 Greetings from Madrid (Spain)
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Post by karlox on Dec 26, 2009 10:10:55 GMT
Interesting to check current NAO Index latest trend Charts (visit NOAA website) with a very strong switch to a negative phase from late November. Here in Spain, we have experienced a dramatic weather change compared to what we’d got throughout summer and most part of autumn, nothing to do with what we’ve witnessed during latest year’s November-December configuration. Getting lots of Lows crossing the Iberian Peninsula from west-south-west and lots of good rainfall to palliate September-November severe drought in which used to be much more humid western Spain´s areas. Temperatures also showing great oscillations from cold -and snowy- to warm and rainy. Also interesting to check historical NAO Index records from the 50´s to present time. Take a look comparing prevailing positive NAO Index from 1989 to 1995 with data from 1995 to 2010 showing prevailing negative phases. Amazing to see how fast deep and large Low Pressure Areas are growing and moving along North Atlantic from North America to Europe in these past weeks… Somehow I’ve recalled the film “The Day After Tomorrow” with all that huge Series of Polar Vortex moving South and covering Northern Hemisphere… some of them looking much more like tropical hurricanes than winter storms. Well, we’ve even got tornados-like episodes in Southern Spain which is particularly odd for both the area and the season. Hey, I don’t mean we are getting into an imminent Glacial Era or something like that, but finding it very interesting this radical start of winter time in both North America and Europe… Much more founded comments than mine on this overall picture of current weather conditions are really welcome, I’m just a beginner watching curiously what’s going on… Happy 2010 to all of you Carlos B.
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Post by karlox on Dec 14, 2009 9:34:54 GMT
Light snow fall here in Madrid (Spain- 650 m AMSL): temps around 0º C and less than 1 cm-deep snow on roofs and car tops. This is not that rare, ít´s just a matter of records and memory. Spanish Eastern Mediterranean Coast is getting so far much of the white blanket approaching even MSL. Same with Northern Spain. This summer and autumn it´s been very hot-warm and dry most parts of the Iberian Peninsula, except for some Mediterranean Areas (usually much more dry than rest) with rainfalls exceeding their total mean annual values in just a couple of months, mainly in September, while much more humid western Atlantic facade of the Iberian Peninsula was well beneath its average rainfall for the past months. For what I´ve learned thru this forum North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO index) switched clearly into a negative phase beginnin end of November and deepening thru this month so far and that´s to be taken into account for expecting most frequent rain and snowfall for next week(s) here, same with temperatures lowering to figures closer to what is expected for winter time... I´d appreciate more expertise opinions than mine on that. Best regards to ´elbuho´: what part of Spain are you from? Best wishes to all participants as well
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Post by karlox on Nov 28, 2009 10:12:27 GMT
Dear Hilbert and rest of participants of this thread, although I am well far from being an expert on the topic and find myself even farther geographically from the Pacific Ocean waters were ENSO La Niña/El Niño are ´cooked´ or shows its nature -I am from and live in Madrid, Spain- I’d like to launch a question to anyone best formed/informed than me: it’s there any scientifically research or hypothesis establishing any correlation between El Niño/La Niña and significant weather changes in parts of the world such as Europe? This November and most of October mean temperatures both in Spain and most of Northern and Central Europe as far as Central Russia (Moscow) were well above mean temperatures. There have been for weeks a constant entry of warm and humid air coming all the way up from tropical Atlantic areas to Scandinavia. Drought is now severe in western areas of Iberian Peninsula, which uses to be the most humid part of Spain and Portugal. For sure this implies that there must be other parts of the northern hemisphere that have been cooler than normal: Siberia? Canada-USA? Just look a global composition map with meteo satellites pictures showing warm-cold fronts and low pressure areas moving round the world and from a large scale point of view one can see how this persisting strong warm air currents that keep hitting and heating large European areas have their corresponding large areas of strong cooling westward and eastward of Europe. That’s only my appreciation… Question is: such ´anomalies´ could have any relationship with this apparently weak to moderate EL Niño taking place as far from here as the Pacific waters? Or has it been already determined that ENSO only has a clear impact on Pacific surrounding areas such as South-Central-America? If anyone could just enlighten my ignorance on this I would highly appreciate it.
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