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Post by karlox on Feb 24, 2010 21:29:33 GMT
PS: Hey! I´ve just mentioned CO2... after all this a Global Warming and Weather discussion, so please, don´t ban me! (besides I am perhaps ´warming´this discussion as well, so I think I qualify for the thread or, finallly I might be part of some Conspiracy, which also qualifies here)
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Post by karlox on Feb 24, 2010 20:40:08 GMT
Hola, Carlos. Most Americans who use the term "European socialism" have no clue about what they are talking about. Most of the "socialist governments" are not socialist by definition. They only tax like socialist governments, and their police and other people control mechanisms are modeled on various fascist regimes of the pre-1945 era. Your comment about Guantanamo is interesting. Many of my European amigos have expressed concern about it. But the number of prisoners at Guantanamo are necessarily limited. Americans are afraid of Obama's friend Alcee Hastings plan to turn many of our closed military bases into concentration camps with the capability to hold hundreds of thousands if not millions. Whether those will actually be gigantic Gitmos; "reeducation camps" on the Chinese model; or something on the German model remains to be seen. As usual, supporters say that those camps will only be used to confine terrorists, while critics have another opinion. Starting with the rational question of "where would you find a half million or more terrorists to lock up in these camps?" It all sounds very Francoish to me. But my Jewish friend still has has her prison camp number and she is convinced they will be Belsen all over again. Stranger Hi Stranger, saddly enough it´s not only Guantanamo... just go again through my ironic description of what we´ve had here in Spain til we -peacefully- regained our right to be free... both as individuals and as citizens. Guantanamo, nowadays, is the peak of the Iceberg (said it right?). Terrorist or non-so-terrorist people (collateral damages, they call it) have been kidnapped, trapped, moved from US bases to secret prisons of third countries and tortured all ´round´our free world, with the necessary aid of our friendly ´democratic´ governments -like Saudi Arabia, just as an example, and -to my shame- the cooperation of many European countries, including mine. Really, if you want them (the prisoners) you should take them, feed them, judge them (judge them? oh! what a great idea, no one thought about it!) so -perhaps- you may put them under your judiciary power?... or just explain to me what Democracy means to you. But the big problem, I guess, is taxes up or taxes down... that means socialism up or down, isn´t it? And now let´s go for Iran, just in case we run out of wars (Iraq, Afganistan...) but the cost of USA ´warfaring´ round the world must have nothing to do with taxes... No? Otherwise I would have read something about it in this forum, some concern... something... Nope, just CO2 is to be blamed for that (possible tax raises)
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Post by karlox on Feb 24, 2010 20:03:52 GMT
[quote author="@ nautonnier" timestamp="1266981380" source="/post/42445/thread"]Certainly Nautonnier, these are the ´mechanics´ lying behind and explaining what´s happening now -you were very nice, patient and didactic explaining that to me in a different post- but what´s happening now has happened before during our ´satellite era´and presumably it´s been so for ages... Please take a look at: www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.timeseries.gifGraphs running from 1950 through 2010, this Historic NAO series are arbitrarily split fo a more convenient ´look´and presentation (four graphs covering 15 years each). One doesn´t need complex maths to see how last graph (1995-2010) looks more like first starting graph (1950-1964) than alike previous one (1980-1995). In short: negative NAO index (in blue) seems to prevail except for 1982-1995, so I can´t really see patterns have changed, as you say, and though our technology is far better now than in the 50´s I suppose it´s not that difficult to compare old weather data, reports and observations from the past toh what we´re observing now during this prevailing ´negative´ AO and NAO index cycle, and by ´now´ I mean not only this crazy winter, but many others in the last 15 years... What do you think about this? May I be missing something?
If you go to www.accuweather.com you can look at Joe Bastardi's European Blog www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
Joe Bastardi is the son of a weather forecaster and lives eats and sleeps weather. He does look back into patterns of the 1930's and so on identifying similarities that allowed him to forecast the bad weather that Europe is having now. He forecast the drop in Atlantic hurricanes etc etc.
All of forecasting is based on pattern matching. As technology has improved instead of counting berries on trees and dates of animals hibernating, forecasters have moved to looking at patterns in satellite imagery, water vapor concentrations, complete gridded atmosphere analyses with points 40km apart with temperature, humidity, winds, etc etc. But its still patterns and the matching is done by software - but the software was designed by forecasters who effectively put the observed pattern rules into the software that if X and Y then A and B will occur. When you work with forecasters some will accept what 'the computer' has told them others will adjust the forecast in the light of their pattern experience. In forecasting this is seen as a 'confidence' level in the forecast - it is a Bayesian probability based on the forecaster's belief in the automated forecast. But as with all areas of modern life more and more forecasters trust the machine and its pattern matching as the easy way out.
The atmosphere is mathematically chaotic, this does not mean that there are not patterns its just that the viewpoint for identifying the patterns may need to be altered ( look at Poincaré sections ) So for a short period observed patterns may repeat then for no apparent reason alter. Some of these chaotic patterns are common others rarely occur, or do not often occur with others in certain states. So the Earth spends most of its time in a glacial ice age mode (in chaos theory a 'strong attractor') then some changes of state or small forces occur - and the Earth warms out of the ice age toward a weaker attractor set of states resulting in a brief inter-glacial period. Inside this current interglacial there are patterns and phases in the climate and weather - some very long scales others short - together they can appear to be chaotic noise. Eventually, the right trigger will occur - and the climate will move back to the strong attractor of the ice age state.
Humans spend all their time looking for patterns and cause and effect, but in chaotic systems these patterns may not be apparent and the cause for changes may be a very small unlikely change but at _just_ the _right_ time..... hence the debate over the so called 'butterfly effect'.
Science has recently gained the capability to collect almost all the data on what is happening from galactic level down to variations in atmosphere, soil and seawater and photons affects on molecules. But turning this data into information on what will happen next results into a return into pattern matching - more complex pattern matching. You can only match patterns if you have seen them before - and to see previous patterns that are more than two or three centuries old science is reduced to using 'proxies' for the values needed. Proxies need interpretation and some work others don't. So there is a temptation to choose the proxy that provides a recognizable pattern that fits with what the researcher 'expects'. The problem is that patterns can be misconstrued - e.g. the correlation not causation or common causation issues debated so hotly here.
So what we have now is 'science' largely limiting itself to 'the satellite era' as lots of high quality data is available. Almost certainly patterns will not be simple linear effects and the patterns in the chaos may not be apparent unless the date is considered over centuries. But the data from that far in the past is vague and misleading and requires climatologists to work with biologists, geologists, physicists and chemists trying to obtain information from proxy data that may really not be there. It was the discovery that the tree-ring proxies did not actually act as proxies for temperature that caused the 'hide the decline' panic in the University of East Anglia - all the patterns they had extrapolated from the past were now in question.
It can be difficult for some of these researchers to admit that they / we just don't know what happened in the past and why it happened in sufficient detail to forecast what is likely in the future. Some of the climate models being run now are extremely complex, but they just extrapolate the pattern assumptions of the researchers forward and the chaotic climate system so far has refused to follow expectations. Keep observing what actually happens as we are watching new patterns in much more detail than in the past. Will we get sufficient understanding to forecast the next decades? Some people are convinced this is possible - I am not so sure.
I hope that was not too rambling a response |
[/quote] Precise, wise and very didactic, Nautonnier, that´s like your response looks to me (though I´ve had to check ´rambling´ and a few more words in my dictionary, thanks as well for ´my´new English words learned today) Overall, the most outstanding part of your argumentation is that -to me- it somehow relects what ´I feel´, I mean that far from beeing any expert on anything -just a curious guy- you´ve put black on white some ideas -or perhaps I should call them ´feelings´- that I bear regarding how this entire ´world´functions... Getting acquaintanced now with Bastardi´s blog, very interesting indeed. Could you please recommend me some reading -rather level 1 for ´beginners´ - on Chaotic Systems or Chaos theory and/or butterfly effect? I love whenever Maths, Science and Philosophy converge,, just different sides of same unique reality...As it used to be in Ancient Greece... that´s what Chaos, Chaotic and butterfly effect´ sounds to me... (and this ´philosophy´would apply to social, political and economic enviroments as well, in my opinion) Could a single ´formula´be ever able to explain this Universe? Sorry if this was too rambling a question now...
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Post by karlox on Feb 24, 2010 18:39:11 GMT
Don't know what politics you have where you are, but here what a politician claims in order to be elected quite often does not match what he does once in office. That is the case with Obama. That he has attempted to convert the US to a European-style socialism is not a reflection of the wishes of the voters but of his own duplicity in attaining office. This country allowed the previous administration generous latitude in fighting terrorism. What makes this country different from most others is our 'checks and balances'; if they abuse the law, we will change the law and remove those who fostered the abuse. I've seen this 'abuse it and lose it' action done at all levels of government. As far as I know, the government has only used their expanded powers to disrupt terrorism. Does anyone know of any abusive use of the Patriot Act? Hi jtom! here in Spain we are under the rule of a ´terrible´ Spanish Socialist Worker´s Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español), which ran for being re-elected and succeeded!! Amazing! It´s really disgusting... there is a common saying here -half joking half serious, depending on whom is saying it, that goes: "With Franco we used to live better" or, otherwise, "Against Franco we used to live better" (hope literal translation is meaningful enough, sorry for I am not a native english speaker). European Socialism.... ummmm... it really sounds terrible and scaring... like pro AGW people and taxes rise... at least! Indeed I was raised under Franco´s Regime -which for the sake of anti-communism (social-democray was not a target by that time, not sure about now according to some comments posted here); he (Franco), for the sake of anticommunism blah blah blah... supported Hitler and he even sent spanish ´volunteers´ troops ( including a handull of Spanish defeated Republican prisoners, which- once ´converted´to the ´right cause´ ´volunteered´to fight Communist Russia, joining thus Nazi´s Cruisade against Stalin)... well, as I was saying he -Franco- was a really nice guy, wasn´t he? This nice fellow I am talking about eventually became a good friend of USA Goverments... or viceversa?... not sure... anyway, he got sufficient support -for the sake of freedom, anti communism etc- as to keep on ruling Spain -until 1974 , when he just died (Obama didn´t kill him, ´neither Presiden Nixon, to my knowledge) For sure we had no free elections -from 1936 to 1975- nor free press, nor civil rights, nor divorce, nor nothing... but it was probably to avoid the risk of falling under what you call European Socialism... so I should probably be gratefull to President Eisenhower til President Nixon which gladly supported this nice Generalissimo Franco... for the sake of Freedom, low taxes blah blah blah... ;D Seriously, What do yo mean by European Socialism? Guantanamo is what really scares many Europeans and many Americans too! Ps: I am not -currently- a Socialist Party voter here in Spain, which I could freely be... just to let you know... and I regard myself as a USA-freak and friend, be sure of that!
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Post by karlox on Feb 23, 2010 8:36:25 GMT
I am worried and scared of how radicalist, extremist and fundamentalist, opposition to Obama is becoming... Our system is most endangered by Obama. We don't want Marxism, socialism, communism, fascism. That's what puts our system in danger. We want Constitutionalism! Have you even watched the YouTubes on our system? It's called Overview of America. Comes in 4 parts but is only 29minutes over all. It might help you understand why we are so against Obama. scpg02, thanks for the videos, I´ll go through all of them to try to understand your point of view. If only I would say that since Obama was put there by his voters -meaning millions, as it was for any other Presidents, would that mean that half the USA´s citizens became communist or what? I ´d suppose that you would also assume that the approval of different laws restraining public liberties for the sake of National Security (Terrorist scare) during past Administration was a serious threat for the individuals rights and liberties as well... Nope? Perh
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Post by karlox on Feb 23, 2010 8:12:14 GMT
karlox, A very inciteful description of PNS, post-normal science is given here buythetruth.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/climate-change-and-the-death-of-science/ and here wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/22/jerry-ravetz-part-2-answer-and-explanation-to-my-critics/#more-16627 Rather lengthly, valuable reading, but in short it says that reality has redefined scientific truth as scientific quality, now twisted to serve the political purposes of society. I would have added, to serve the political purposes of society as defined by the masters.. (necessary to maintain the illusion we are talking about a grand conspiracy.) As regards the ?speculation? of imminent climate cooling, I can provide numerous references, but I prefer this one: bourabai.narod.ru/landscheidt/new-e.htmLandscheidt (now deceased) has his detractors; I understood him to say that the tug of gravity from the massive planets on the liquid mass of the sun was the driving force for variations in the solar dynamo. Per Svensmark, solar radiance, with its low variance, need not be required to explain climate change, because feedback mechanisms responsive to solar magnetism are involved. Thanks enginer, it might take me some time, but I´ll comment again on what you´re offering me for further discussion.
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Post by karlox on Feb 23, 2010 8:07:15 GMT
"Instead of working desperately to develop new sources of inexpensive energy to tide us through the cooling period and to help the earth deal with the entropic effects of (currently) increasing population, Al Gore, Maurice Strong and even our President are seeking to institute Cap and Trade to bail out failed socialistic budgets and drive the cost of energy up so that we use less!" Enginer, in Spain this winter is so ´weird´which you can easily read or hear comments such as "...snow/wind/hot/cold/rainfall stronger/heavier for the last... 20,30,40 years etc" you can also hear either: 1- so this is what Global Warming is meant to be? Comme-on! we are in fact going straight ahead to some sort of xtreme freezing period or glaciation or... 2- this is certainly what Global Warming is meant to be: droughts and floodings, severe hot and cold weather, black and white, up and down...depending on where and when etc. Sorry, but I can´t buy either one!... these both basic positions are both "polluted"... and I feel you´re for position 1 -your free opinion I deeply respect - but it does not sound very scientific to me... sorry... and it sounds as radical and unfounded as the opposite one... just the other side of the same mirrow... Politics, politics, politics... It might be fun -you can even have a nice Tea Party with your friends- but that´s not science... I think. "- this is certainly what Global Warming is meant to be: droughts and floodings, severe hot and cold weather, black and white, up and down...depending on where and when etc."This is actually what happens when the polar vortex extends south forcing the weather that makes up the Ferrel cells to run through the Iberian peninsula instead of Scotland. The question that needs to be asked is why has the polar vortex shifted - and that may well be due to unexpected changes in the stratosphere. The patterns that we became used to in the 'satellite era' have changed - this is why the weather forecasters are having so much difficulty and why their models are not working. Certainly Nautonnier, these are the ´mechanics´ lying behind and explaining what´s happening now -you were very nice, patient and didactic explaining that to me in a different post- but what´s happening now has happened before during our ´satellite era´and presumably it´s been so for ages... Please take a look at: www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.timeseries.gifGraphs running from 1950 through 2010, this Historic NAO series are arbitrarily split fo a more convenient ´look´and presentation (four graphs covering 15 years each). One doesn´t need complex maths to see how last graph (1995-2010) looks more like first starting graph (1950-1964) than alike previous one (1980-1995). In short: negative NAO index (in blue) seems to prevail except for 1982-1995, so I can´t really see patterns have changed, as you say, and though our technology is far better now than in the 50´s I suppose it´s not that difficult to compare old weather data, reports and observations from the past toh what we´re observing now during this prevailing ´negative´ AO and NAO index cycle, and by ´now´ I mean not only this crazy winter, but many others in the last 15 years... What do you think about this? May I be missing something?
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Post by karlox on Feb 22, 2010 20:46:34 GMT
but their leadership is being put into question every time regular democratic elections take place in their respective countries. Which begs the question, are our elections real? I don't think so. The global elites in charge would never allow that. No, major elections are rigged here in the States. I am firmly convinced of this. your elections are very real indeed! in fact they´re a Reality Show, or alike Hollywood´s Oscar Academy Awards! Very American and very Real, certainly... but very´controlled-watched- limited... well, in fact far from being first class free elections on a first class Democratic Political System., as you deserve... but somehow it works! though I don´t know how many USA citizens are aware of how endangered their democratic system has been put into recent past times and shall again in the near future... I am worried and scared of how radicalist, extremist and fundamentalist, opposition to Obama is becoming... honest people grabbing libertarian-nationalism cause due to their fear to the future... all these are signs of a sharp turn in Mankind history... it happened before, it shall again, but multiplied by the effect of Global population figures... Roman Empire is on decline now... That´s how it looks to me from this side of the Atlantic Ocean
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Post by karlox on Feb 22, 2010 20:15:14 GMT
Enginer, by the way... I would be more than happy to talk and discuss on politics with you here! And perhaps you could let me say why my opinion on Obama is positive (medium positive) though I feel there is very little him and his administration, nor any power or group in the entire world, can do to prevent the collapse of our globalize economic-grow-grow-grow system which is close to occur... and that´s no ´science´ but can be explained logically...
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Post by karlox on Feb 22, 2010 20:01:40 GMT
"Instead of working desperately to develop new sources of inexpensive energy to tide us through the cooling period and to help the earth deal with the entropic effects of (currently) increasing population, Al Gore, Maurice Strong and even our President are seeking to institute Cap and Trade to bail out failed socialistic budgets and drive the cost of energy up so that we use less!"
Enginer, in Spain this winter is so ´weird´which you can easily read or hear comments such as "...snow/wind/hot/cold/rainfall stronger/heavier for the last... 20,30,40 years etc" you can also hear either: 1- so this is what Global Warming is meant to be? Comme-on! we are in fact going straight ahead to some sort of xtreme freezing period or glaciation or... 2- this is certainly what Global Warming is meant to be: droughts and floodings, severe hot and cold weather, black and white, up and down...depending on where and when etc.
Sorry, but I can´t buy either one!... these both basic positions are both "polluted"... and I feel you´re for position 1 -your free opinion I deeply respect - but it does not sound very scientific to me... sorry... and it sounds as radical and unfounded as the opposite one... just the other side of the same mirrow... Politics, politics, politics... It might be fun -you can even have a nice Tea Party with your friends- but that´s not science... I think.
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Post by karlox on Feb 21, 2010 7:54:38 GMT
Let me correct past post, where it says: ...which -let´s remind- does not implies a democratic society or government at all" it should say: which -let´s remind- does not implies a democratic society or government necessarily"
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Post by karlox on Feb 21, 2010 7:32:19 GMT
Hairball,
it´s not as much a matter of Conspirancies here and there but rather a Worldwide Power Game and struggle between two different economic model growth types, both fully included -in a general sense- among Global Capitalist Developpment Systems, which -let´s remind- does not implies a democratic society or government at all.
Fierce open discussions, with a lot of politics involved, as the ones we are lucky tho held in these Forums is a priviledge for the few, like you and me. This cannot be forgotten or been put aside ever; whenever any international meeting such Copenhagen takes place, you may like or not like Obama, Brown, Merkel, Sarkossy, Zapatero, Papandreu...and whatever they say, but their leadership is being put into question every time regular democratic elections take place in their respective countries. Thus they are "our" presidents, like them or not. But who, whom and what are representing and defending non-democratic rulers round the world?
Climate Change Alarms, Global warming scares etc are badly -and wrongly- used and artificially enlarged -in my opinion- by AGW proponents to enpower their position before Public Opinion in democratic countries, mainly. That´s a big mistake. I am not for that approach at all. Let free-minded scientist (should a scientist be anything else than ´free-minded´which means honestly minded?) have lots of unanswered questions and room for investigation before making up dramatic scenarios to move people´s mind to accept sacrifices to come.
Real underlying concern should be whether we put aside any enviromental regulations, controls, labour policies, fair play etc. to compete with powerfully emerging nation´s -mainly in Asia- which will keep on playing their own game using their own rules, seeking their own goal (mainly increase their political power and weight by any means), or sometimes taking the other´s approach whenever they feel it´s also for their best convenience.
If you feel that is not right that the europeans, americans and free citizens worlwide loose their jobs, or reduce their living standars, or become dependent of strong powers not subject to people´s controls, then we must agree that forcing such countries to compromise with common fair-play rules we´re starting to agree, such as enviromental regulations, is important for plain people and requires strong democratic institutions...
I am scared of "libertarian" economic growth model in hands of Chinese Communist Party people (and THAT is what they would like to have: they take from us what better suits their final goal of ´growth by any means is what matters now´... and I can see shared interest among such country models and big financial powers and many big companies... Big money has no motherland, it also supports any practice if ´good for the company´ and certainly does so with little or none regulation if allowed to. Farmers and livestock men, oil and coal, nuke and windmills, cotton versus lycra... that´s also part of our capitalist economy... and democratic governments have always supported somehow either options based in Public or non-so-public interest pushing behind them... But if we want to remain free we ought to stop this uncontrolled, ruless, oppresive to their own people Growth Model. Colonialism is part of the past, but this world can´t afford another capitalist libertarian revolution game in which some players just cheat at their convenience and they count for billions, don´t forget that either.
If for the sake of Enviroment we get them (China) to abide to some common basic rules and democratic principles... then we should perhaps say welcome AGW! though they´re certainly misusing ´scare-the-people´ alarmism, stressing dangers of possible future´temperatures rises´ etc., and by they I mean AL Gore, Obama, Merkel... who for sure know well that THAT is not the point or the question, in fact nothing to do with what the real game they´re playing is all about!.
Question to my american friends: Has China kept on buying USA´s Public Treasure Debt emissions? Might Dalai-Lama visit to Obama suppose a change on Chinese policies of investing hughe amounts of money in dollars until making USA a major debtor of ´free-China´? When did that started? How many years ago? CO2 is just the excuse to start balancing this unfair situation, I agree with the goal and disagree with the method chosen (AGW alarmism, politics among scientist etc) It´s just my opinion... right or wrong but very independent.
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Post by karlox on Feb 15, 2010 7:01:35 GMT
Nautonnier, you´ve brightly summarized -and conveniently put together- most of the information I was looking for in order to improve my understanding of Climate and weather oscillations. Still got lot of room and need for more learning -and feel lucky for that- but your post is quite a good guideline for me now, I especially appreciate your effort since I know a lot of what you tell me has probably been commented here and there by you and others through different threads. Now is my time again to ´study´a little bit more... new questions shall arise and I feel lucky I could find highly expertise voices such as yours in this forum. Coming week or lots of rain and some snow here in Spain, especially western, Central and Southern parts: NAO index keeps on minimums negative data during this part of february...
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Post by karlox on Feb 14, 2010 7:36:52 GMT
Thanks Nautonnier for taking your time to teach Basic Climatology to ´beginners´ as me.... Yet I don´t quite understand whether the heating or cooling of certain areas of Central and South Pacific Ocean waters is what might drive either to a ´mostly´Negative or positive AO and NAO index or not; in other words, a negative phase of AO index is commongly associated to a negative phase of NAO index (I think here the pressure difference betwen Island and Lisbon is what counts).
Then, could we say that a sustained, important negative AO/NAO index phase- as it has been for the last months starting at the end on november- would be roughly linked to EL NIÑO phase, while prevailing positive AO/NAO index would normally be associated to La NIÑA? (just for an example to explain my question, not that I believe that, simply don´t know)
I guess that long-term statistic data comparing AO/NAO index with ENSO/SOI, plus some ´data math cooking´ could establish -or not- such trend and/or association; I simply have not either the knowledge nor the skills to find out, but if there is such a clear and close response for both phenomena then for sure either you Nautonnier or someone else out there have an answer for me... thanks in advance
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Post by karlox on Feb 14, 2010 0:35:58 GMT
Madrid -Spain- currently -1ºC and expecting myself a nice snowfall this coming monday; though I am just an ´observer´ I am predicting-wishing such event for this coming monday since a week ago now, and must say I find this winter season weather maps really weird and outstanding compared to my memory records, which is all crooked data as most memories are...
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