|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 18, 2021 11:42:27 GMT
Complex issue which will be resolved. The main thing that proceeded this was the rush for wind subsidies. I will send you a few pictures that really outline the outcome. Money invested in wind should have been invested in more pipelines and coal plants. Coal plants are reliable. It is complex and as with most things there is no one single cause but a perfect storm. Depending on what source you search Texas generates 17 to 24 percent of it's power from wind. Which would probably have been much better spent developing clean, local natural gas plants. Even more so if you take into consideration the tax subsidies offered to wind farms. I don't have a problem with the de-regulation of the power industry in Texas. I am a free market capitalist but like the run on the banks during The Great Depression perhaps it would have been wise to require minimum reserves to keep this from happening? Now there will be thousands of Texans without a retail electrical provider thrown out on the open market desperate to try and find a provider with a fixed rate to take them on. It's hard for me to be too angry with the producers either. Who want's to sell a product to someone you fully realize is going to go bankrupt and not pay you? Thats a formula to spread mass contagion and bring the entire system down. And as we face the next arctic blast 2 million Texans are still without power.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 18, 2021 0:51:48 GMT
Market forces are all fine and well. But aren't there rules / laws regarding price gouging by "public utilities" (and their suppliers) during a public emergency? You would think so. Problem is Texas de-regulated the power industry years ago. So it is complex, but long story short there are a large percentage of companies that did not buy enough bulk contracts in advance to cover the spike from this arctic blast. The wholesale price skyrocketed and very similar to the hedge funds that were caught in the short squeeze on GameStop stock they are faced with buying 9.00 a KWH electricity to cover their customers that they were charging about .12 a KWH. Many now face insolvency and the producers fully realize they are not going to get paid and this ends up in bankruptcy court. Hence all of the sudden the grid crashes and inability to deliver. It is a train wreck and people want heads but the producers have costs as well. They can't generate the electricity and not get paid for it. In my opinion de-regulation is a good thing. However letting every Tom, Richard and Harry become an electrical company and start buying and selling electricity on the open market is clearly playing with fire. Now as these companies face insolvency customers are forced to find new providers and many of the new providers are not taking any new customers in fear of running out of their blocks of electricity. Politicians are getting involved and the entire thing is a cluster puck. Unfortunately there have been multiple deaths, problems with water companies, inability to put out fires, gas and food shortages. It's worse than all but the worst of Hurricanes I have experienced.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 17, 2021 14:19:06 GMT
Update from Houston hour 55 without power. The situation is bad for some, normal for others. Some neighborhoods have power others don’t. It’s warmed into the 30’s for most of SE Texas. Northern areas received another round of freezing rain and sleet last night. I have generator running and a fire burning pallet wood crackling in fireplace. Stories abound of people without power or heat congregating in one center room and bundling in blankets to keep warm at night. Not much in the way of food or gas at the grocery stores if you can find one with power. On the coast many of the bays are reporting that there has been a massive fish die off due to the cold. Most of our fish species struggle when water temps drop below 40F for an extended period. This will be the third such event in my life. The others being the 1983 and 1989 arctic outbreaks. Cell/internet is limited at best. To be perfectly clear these power outages were not caused by ice on lines or trees downing lines. We are being told it is a massive grid failure due to overload. People want answers and heads. I'm curious - has anyone compared maps of: 1. The neighborhoods without power vs those with it 2. Voting results from November by precinct I think we all know we're going to get there eventually, I'm just wondering if eventually is here yet. Yes, and the largest anomaly seems to be wealth. Wealthy neighborhoods seem to be performing better than poorer ones. I don’t do conspiracy theory but the wholesale price for electricity has been upwards of 9.00 KWH! Most of the power providers do not generate electricity they buy it from the producers and sell it at a profit, going rate is about .12 a KWH. If they did not buy enough energy before this they have to buy it at the current wholesale price. This is still “conspiracy” but I know of no company in the world that can buy anything for 9.00 and sell it for .12 and stay in business very long. Hence the massive so called “grid collapse”. Investigations and State Senate hearings to follow...
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 17, 2021 12:56:40 GMT
Update from Houston hour 55 without power.
The situation is bad for some, normal for others. Some neighborhoods have power others don’t. It’s warmed into the 30’s for most of SE Texas. Northern areas received another round of freezing rain and sleet last night. I have generator running and a fire burning pallet wood crackling in fireplace.
Stories abound of people without power or heat congregating in one center room and bundling in blankets to keep warm at night.
Not much in the way of food or gas at the grocery stores if you can find one with power. On the coast many of the bays are reporting that there has been a massive fish die off due to the cold. Most of our fish species struggle when water temps drop below 40F for an extended period. This will be the third such event in my life. The others being the 1983 and 1989 arctic outbreaks.
Cell/internet is limited at best.
To be perfectly clear these power outages were not caused by ice on lines or trees downing lines. We are being told it is a massive grid failure due to overload. People want answers and heads.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 16, 2021 15:34:04 GMT
Thanks sigurdur. Its been 30 hours without power. 16 degrees F this morning but the sun is out and temps are on the way up above freezing today! Hopefully power gets restored soon.
It’s irritating to think we live in an energy rich state like Texas but run out of energy! Lots to learn from this:
1.). Perhaps the world is not warming as much as some would have us believe.
2.) Wind turbines freeze up when you need them most.
3.). We probably need to get the politicians out of the electrical generation regulation business.
4.) This is a big one. Rely on no one. Be prepared to generate your own heat and electricity. Without a fireplace, fuel and a generator my situation would have went from bad to worse...
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 16, 2021 6:32:07 GMT
It’s been close to 24 hours without power. Current temperature is 19 on its way down to the single digits. Millions are still without power in the Houston area. For a few, primarily the elderly this could be fatal.
Any type of propane or kerosene indoor gas heaters have been sold out for a week and although most of us in this part of the world are prepared for power outages we are not prepared for the cold.
While this arctic blast is not “unprecedented” it will probably go down as one of the top five worst arctic invasions and the first time in my 53 years we have lost power for more than an hour or two in the wintertime.
Truly eye opening for me. Running low on firewood I have had to scrounge for old pallets to cut up and supplement my supply, make alcohol heaters out of bean cans and cheaply acquired pints of isopropyl alcohol from dollar tree and use my generator sparingly to conserve fuel.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 16, 2021 0:11:53 GMT
Large swaths of Texas are not having rolling blackouts. For millions of us in SE Texas the grid has completely crashed and we have not had power since 2:00 AM. It came on a total of 30 mins today. ERCOT has declared a grid emergency.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 15, 2021 10:43:40 GMT
Update from the Lone Star State 4:30 AM. 21F at my house. Woke up to no power and heavy sleet. A layer of ice covers everything. The only blessing is since there is no power I’m not paying the current 8.54 cents per KWH for electricity. No that’s not a misprint current wholesale price for electricity is 8.54 per kWh. Fixed plans for most Texans average .09 - .12 per KWH. Mine is pegged to the wholesale price which is usually less than .03 per.
Don’t know if it’s a rolling blackout of due to the ice on power lines.
In any case the fireplace is roaring, several emergency can alcohol heaters are burning and 1/2 my house is warm...
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 12, 2021 21:57:31 GMT
All of SE Texas is under a winter storm watch or warning. Looking like a bad ice storm could cripple Houston on Monday. My home is all electric so "just in case" I purchased a truckload of firewood and cranked up the fireplace.
Forecast lows on the GFS have dropped over the last 3 or 4 runs from 24 in my area to 16 for lows Tuesday morning. Re-establishing my assumption that the models have a warm bias and underestimate the cold. Would not surprise me at all parts of SE Texas bottom out in the single digits. Without a doubt the coldest weather since 1989.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 12, 2021 13:15:00 GMT
I don't ever remember a sleet/snow/ice event in Houston that was ever forecast in advance. Like the Christmas Eve snow event in 2004 a low usually forms off the South Texas Coast and rides up "surprising" meteorologists along the way. They have been forecasting ice/snow for us on Monday a full week in advance. Probably wont happen. But should the worse case scenario happen there will be gridlock on our freeways as the same people who are wearing a mask while they are driving alone in their cars will hit the elevated sections of our Freeways at 80mph. If the forecast even gets close to panning out none of my loved ones will be allowed in a car until temps rise above freezing. The older I get the more I lose faith in the collective intelligence of the average person. Unfortunately you are proven right Glenn. The pictures are pretty grim. Good Morning America At least 6 dead in massive Texas crash involving over 100 cars: Officials news.yahoo.com/multiple-people-trapped-following-freeway-142300137.htmlThis hurts to watch and exactly why none of my loved ones will be on the road this coming Monday... It's an accident and I hate to point fingers but the FedEx driver was clearly going way to fast for the conditions and it does not end well. www.facebook.com/DallasTexasTV/videos/3691113487590487
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 11, 2021 16:00:16 GMT
It's been a long time since it was in the teens in Houston. NWS forecast for Monday night is 20. 70% Chance of freezing precipitation as well. The drivers down here don't do well when the roads get icy. Going to be pandemonium around here. I was working in Pennzoil Place downtown Houston in the 80s when it snowed around lunchtime. All the employers sent their workers home, and we watched with amusement from the 31st floor as the freed Houstonians got up on the Pierce Elevated and promptly slid and slided into each other. A many car wreck and massive traffic jam ensued. We waited until 5PM to leave the building, by which time the snow had melted and the traffic had cleared. Moral of the story--don't drive on elevated highways in the deep south during a snow event (I hate to call it a "storm") Most drivers without experience in snow seem to think rapid acceleration followed by harsh breaking is their friend. I don't ever remember a sleet/snow/ice event in Houston that was ever forecast in advance. Like the Christmas Eve snow event in 2004 a low usually forms off the South Texas Coast and rides up "surprising" meteorologists along the way. They have been forecasting ice/snow for us on Monday a full week in advance. Probably wont happen. But should the worse case scenario happen there will be gridlock on our freeways as the same people who are wearing a mask while they are driving alone in their cars will hit the elevated sections of our Freeways at 80mph. If the forecast even gets close to panning out none of my loved ones will be allowed in a car until temps rise above freezing. The older I get the more I lose faith in the collective intelligence of the average person.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 11, 2021 2:44:55 GMT
It's been a long time since it was in the teens in Houston. NWS forecast for Monday night is 20. 70% Chance of freezing precipitation as well. The drivers down here don't do well when the roads get icy. Going to be pandemonium around here.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 10, 2021 15:18:52 GMT
Instead of actually making sound fiscal policy and tough decisions our ruling class of Washington elitists on both sides of the aisle have found out it is much easier to simply spend our kids and grandkids futures away. The 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus will not bring back jobs lost during our response to the Corona virus. Sure it will buy a few steak dinners, a TV or two million for the uneducated and some will use it to pay a months mortgage or the balance on a credit card. The Fed will keep the free money flowing and the stock market will continue to climb for a time. Right up until it does not.
Crazy to think my father and grandfather could have avoided all the pain during The Great Depression if FDR would have just sent out the checks...
Looking back the TVA, the WPA and all of the other New Deal programs look Ultraconservative compared to our response nowadays. Unfortunately my fourth grade teacher Mrs. Owens was correct. Math does not lie. At some point in our future the cost of servicing that debt will be too big for us to handle. Banks, other nations and global institutions will no longer buy our T-Bills and T-Bonds and the same thing will happen to our nation that happens to the rest of America when they put too much on their credit cards.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 2, 2021 15:42:07 GMT
Winter 20/21 down here in Texas has been very unremarkable with average to slightly above average temps. 3 light freezes to date. Working outside on the bays everyday the one difference I have really noticed is a trend of clearer and dryer air due to higher pressure. Coastal lows that can sometimes dominate our weather have been rarer this year than in the past half a dozen or so.
Above average north winds, higher pressures and lower tides most likely attributed to the La Nina. Of course that could change the last month or so of winter and probably will.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Jan 25, 2021 13:31:43 GMT
I am not very concerned about the Biden Presidency. After 47 years in the swamp he owe's something to everyone so I don't think there will be massive disruptive change. The Supreme Court is very conservative and the Senate is pretty much knotted up. Republicans actually gained seats in the House.
All bets are off if Biden is unable to finish his term.
|
|