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Post by glennkoks on Jun 10, 2014 3:30:28 GMT
Astromet,
From my understanding the metrics you use to define just what is an el nino seems to vary from how NOAA defines an el nino. I'm curious to see which forecast end up correct, yours or NOAA's. Are you saying that NOAA's forecast (the way they define it) will never materialize?
I fully understand NOAA's forecast. I'm not completely clear on yours.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 10, 2014 1:40:22 GMT
Astromet,
To save me some time searching 29 pages of responses could you either point out what page you defined just what el nino is? And if it differs from NOAA's definition just how so? It is quite possible that NOAA's definition of an El Nino might vary considerably from the way you define it.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 10, 2014 0:24:50 GMT
Astromet,
This is NOAA's definition of an El Nino or La Nina:
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
Are these the same standards you use in defining what is a nino/nina?
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 9, 2014 21:25:13 GMT
It's looking like Joe is right on the money. I've been working in the Texas panhandle for the last week and it has stormed everynight. So much so that I had to get a 4 wheel drive truck to pull my 2WD truck off a flooded and muddy location yesterday. Currently it is 59 degrees with winds out of the north gusting to 42mph. Feels more like late March than June 9th. Storms were so severe last night we were considering hunkering down in the storm shelter on location.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 9, 2014 21:14:20 GMT
I don't typically subscribe to "conspiracy theory". So I don't know if our energy policy is:
A.) A struggle by those who want to "control the masses".
or
B.) The misguided attempts by the more liberal to artificially stimulate green energy by regulating fossil fuels.
The truth is it is probably a little of both. There are certainly those who realize that in todays world energy is power. Putin's involvement in the Ukraine comes to mind. But there are also many on the left who simply think green energy is a good thing and don't realize that they are being used by those with less than good intentions.
I have always questioned why the "greens" have not openly embraced the explotation of our shale gas. It's at least five time cleaner than coal, it's plentiful and it is domestic. If done properly fracking is not the ecological nightmare that it has been portrayed as.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 9, 2014 2:54:47 GMT
At any given time there are portions of the world that are in drought and portions that are much wetter than normal. Currently, California is parched and Washington is wet. Are you able to be more specific in your forecasts with respect to what areas are going to be wet and dry? [/quote]
Thats the million dollar question. What do you think?
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 9, 2014 2:45:00 GMT
Flearider,
Higher prices does limit supply. It prices those who can least afford it out of the market first. Cheap clean natural gas should be our focus.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 8, 2014 4:47:36 GMT
That is the whole plan. Shut down coal fired power plants, then cut off the natural gas that was suppose to replace them. Then we have only one avenue, green high priced energy. While that may be their plan. We are still a center/right nation that votes with our pocketbooks. After last years brutal winter the publics tolerance for high priced energy is probably at an all time low.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 8, 2014 1:59:38 GMT
trbixler,
Fracking in in the EPA's crosshairs for sure. I just hope the oil industry does not give them the ammo they need to shut us down.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 7, 2014 22:47:25 GMT
astro is this you ?http://globalastrologyblog.blogspot.co.uk/ I really hope not .. as man is not driven by the stars .. Yes it is...
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 7, 2014 15:14:19 GMT
Skyrocket revisited "Promise Made, Promise Kept: “Electricity Rates Would Necessarily Skyrocket” linkWith cheap, clean, domestic and plentiful natural gas directly under our feet right here at home why anyone would say that electricity would "necessarily skyrocket" has gone mad. You want to stimulate the economy? Lower everyones light bill by promoting cheap energy and watch them spend the savings on iphones, beat bugs or family vacations.
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Post by glennkoks on May 30, 2014 0:50:34 GMT
weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifI have seen very little commentary on the huge plume of extremely cold water in the seas near Japan, not to mention a very cold Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic. I think the latter have interesting implications for the Gulf Stream [aka North Atlantic Drift]. How do these vast areas of anomalously cold water form? Doug, Surface SST's in the Gulf of Mexico are probably due to colder than normal winter and spring for the region. As recent as a week or two ago Houston tied a 125 year old record low of 47 degrees. Much below average for this area. In addition there has been a pretty good amount of rain the last few weeks which is probably keeping it cooler as well. From the link you provided the SST's for much of the Atlantic and Gulf look much more like a negative phase of the AMO than a positive one. Is this the start of a trend to a cooler atlantic or just a short term anomaly? The past winter felt like a throwback to the 1970's. At least in the U.S. west of the Rockies.
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Post by glennkoks on May 28, 2014 3:43:45 GMT
[ But his forecast for the winter for the US is very cold let's hope the EPA has not managed to close down to many generating plants. Please, where did you find his winter forecast?[/quote] I don't think he has come out with it yet. But he has mentioned a cold winter several times in his weekly updates on the weather bell website. If you go to weatherbell.com he puts out a free summary every saturday. Well worth the 7 to 10 minutes watching the video.
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Post by glennkoks on May 27, 2014 12:47:36 GMT
Mr. Bastardi is looking like a guru now. Lots of Texas is getting well needed rain again today. And South Texas is getting really wet in a good way... This is a picture of the Frio river in South Texas. (Where George Strait learned to swim in his country classic "All My X's Live In Texas") going over its banks for the first time in a very, very long time.
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Post by glennkoks on May 27, 2014 1:38:47 GMT
Looks like Joe may be on to something.
Much of Texas is under a flash flood watch today. We received 1.5" inches in one storm this afternoon with strong possibilities for the next 3 days. I've seen totals of 7+ inches in some of the areas that need it most.
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