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Post by glennkoks on Aug 1, 2014 2:39:46 GMT
I have to say that slh1234's discussion and wonderful virtual tour was worth every minute spent marveling at his prose, knowledge and camera ability. I can't thank slh1234 enough for the beautiful pictures. But I still have to question the closed Chinese economy, their economic statistics and the ghost cities.
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 1, 2014 2:32:07 GMT
Astromet,
The million dollar question is when does the pattern change for Europe? It seems to be inversely correlated. A few years ago we were on the warm side of a trough while the Danube was frozen over. Last year East of the Rockies was "frozen" while Europe was relatively mild (if not stormy).
The really frightening scenario is both sides of the pond having cold winters with disruptive shortened growing seasons. Do you see this happening after 2017 as you have forecasted?
Or does the topsy turvy weather caused by a meridional jet continue?
From what I have read the period around 1330 AD was much like what we are experiencing today. Extremes, or extremely cold winters, hot summers, disruptive wet growing seasons changing from year to year. Most likely caused by a more equatorial jet.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 31, 2014 2:28:17 GMT
26 degrees below normal is pretty substantial Attachments:
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 31, 2014 2:19:45 GMT
I think the most "alarming" trend with these last two fronts has been just how far below normal the temps have been.
Breaking very long term records by a degree or two is not "rare" it happens occasionally. But some of the record lows and record low highs have been absolutely crushed. There were places in Oklahoma a few weeks ago that broke the records by 9 and 10 degrees.
If this "polar vortex" weather pattern continues this fall and winter could be down right "eye opening".
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 31, 2014 2:09:32 GMT
slh1234
Those are great pictures thank you.
I'm curious about the "vacant" cities that so much has been written about. Have you seen these first hand and if so do you have pictures?
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 29, 2014 13:18:33 GMT
sigurdur,
I'm sorry about the low prices. Farming is and always will be a challenge. Mother Nature can be extremely fickle and it is an economic roller coaster ride. If the cooling Theo and many others have forecasted actually occurs you won't have to worry about record production and low prices. The AMO is just about due to flip to its negative phase, the sun is extremely quite and the PDO has already switched. Last years nasty winter may be the canary in the coal mine and a sign of things to come. Good luck, hopefully you will have record production to help ease the pain of low prices.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 28, 2014 23:02:38 GMT
Nautonnier,
Very well said.
The fact that China is the worlds second biggest economy should be enough to frighten everyone. The true value of their currency, GDP numbers, real estate bubble and shadow banking system is the very definition of smoke and mirrors.
The world is most certainly a very unstable place. If the colder climate shift that Theo and many others have been forecasting actually occurs it will probably be the straw that breaks the camels back. Most of the worldwide economy is just not based on reality and food supplies are very, very real.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 27, 2014 13:21:20 GMT
6-10 Day forecast looks nice for late July/early August. Attachments:
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 23, 2014 4:01:25 GMT
Since the mid 1300's we have many instances of brutal winters where the Thames or Danube has froze over. Napoleon and Hitler picked particularly brutal winters to try and invade Russia and the Frost Fairs are well documented. But the most devastating years are caused by disruptive growing seasons.
With the current worldwide population a year like 1816 (The year without a summer) would cause untold chaos. We simply don't have the excess capacity to deal with longterm food shortages on a global scale.
The issue will be exponentially compounded by another "Year without a summer" proceeded by a brutal winter.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 23, 2014 3:39:09 GMT
At this point in time we are much, much more likely to survive any "economic war" with China. Their numbers are fake and nobody with 1/2 a brain trusts them.
If anyone thinks otherwise put your money where your mouth is and buy Yuan.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 22, 2014 5:40:27 GMT
Theodore,
I should probably clarify my statement. Disruptive non productive growing seasons pose much more of a serious risk to our prosperity than colder winters. We have the ability to prepare for cold winters. We don't have the capacaity to replace lost crops in the summer.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 20, 2014 23:30:31 GMT
We are well adapted to cold winters. Of much more concern to us is distruptive short growing seasons. Particulary early and late frosts as they can be crop killers.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 18, 2014 13:49:30 GMT
One of the most extreme examples I saw of the July chill was in OKC. The record low high temp set in the late 1800's was 80 F. Yesterday the high was only 68 smashing the previous record by 12 degrees. Attachments:
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 18, 2014 1:06:49 GMT
Maybe the lost IRS e-mails would show up. Nothing short of "Devine Intervention" is going to bring those emails back to life!
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 17, 2014 22:56:09 GMT
On the bright side. The chances of another Carrington type event are going way down. I would miss all you guys should a massive solar storm fry the internet!
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