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Post by glennkoks on Jun 27, 2014 3:22:40 GMT
sigurdur,
Lifting the ban incentivizes additional domestic production. Creates more jobs and stronger economic activity. That means government revenue. It also means that we would be reducing our trade deficit.
Refineries are doing quite well with the domestic land locked crude. Unfortunately the panacea has not "trickled down" to the consumer.
Lets put it this way. Has the multi year record low natural gas prices "trickled down" to the farmer in the form of cheaper fertilizer?
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 26, 2014 23:54:29 GMT
Glenn: Is Eagle Ford as sweet as Bakken crude? What we seem to be expanding production on now, and for the foreseeable future is sweet crude. We need to develop the refining for this, as it is also a security issue. sigurdur, Bakken crude is very similar to WTI. I think Eagle Ford crude is a slightly higher API but still a very high grade. The problem is we are swamped with it at Cushing, OK. For reasons I do not fully understand gasoline prices are pegged to Brent. It is no accident that all of this comes about at the the time Russia is jacking with the Ukraine. Europe desperately needs light sweet and we are geared up for heavier sour. It's a win win. It seems like common sense not to export crude but the law is a 40 year old relic left over from 1974 and the Arab oil embargo. Shale drilling has changed the overall picture. Shale gas and oil has made us much less dependent on crude from the volatile Middle East and has eased our security concerns. Energy, agriculture and tech are really the only bright spots with our economy. We can't afford to shackle any of them.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 26, 2014 1:34:59 GMT
I think the loosening of a four decade old restriction on exporting crude is a great start on getting this nation back on track. With the shale boom we have an over abundance of light sweet when our refineries are ramped up for heavy sour. Gasoline prices are pegged to Brent and nothing beats the free market.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 25, 2014 21:56:46 GMT
I lost all respect for Mr. Cheney when he said "deficits don't matter".
How any so called "conservative" could utter such B.S. strikes a cord.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 14, 2014 16:53:26 GMT
You cannot force democracy down people's throats. It has to be earned. Shia's have been killing Sunni's for hundreds of years and no amount of American troops is going to fix that.
It may sound cold but Mr. Obama's best option is to push for some type of international peace keeping force. America simply can't go it alone.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 13, 2014 4:32:40 GMT
For the last several years I have read Astromet's seasonal forecasts and revisited them line by line a few months later. And like his ENSO predictions there is really not enough meat on them to verify one way or the other. The few rare specific events he forecasts don't seem to be much better than chance. Some seem to be right on the money others are clearly busts.
With that being said it has been brought to my attention that his long term forecasts are at least as good as anyone elses if not better. Personally I would not pay anyone (with the possible exception of Joe Bastardi at Weather Bell)one red cent for a forecast outside of 10 days. I've seen far to many seasonal busts by everyone in the business of long term forecasting. The seasonal hurricane forecasts are more likely than not down right embarrasing. NOAA's long term stuff is probably even worse. Private forecasters have just as many hits as misses.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 12, 2014 12:14:09 GMT
AstroMet says:La Niña represents the cool phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (otherwise known as the ENSO cycle) or the Pacific cold episode. And of course El Niño is the warm phase, also known to forecasters as the Pacific warm episode. There is no misuse of the term by me, except by those who still don't understand it.Ok. We are entering the realm of my question, the one that you have not answered yet, AstroMet: What are the parameters of those phases? In your definition, How cool and for how long it must be (whatever it may be) to be considered a La Niña? And how warm and for how long it must be to be considered an El Niño? hrizzo, He has been asked that very question at least 1/2 a dozen times if not more over the years and will never come up with an answer. In all fairness to Astromet I don't think he verifies the phases of ENSO the same way NOAA does. As icefisher pointed out his methods do not seem to be quantifiable. Certainly not as simply as a + or - change in SST's in the equatorial Pacific.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 11, 2014 19:11:01 GMT
Astromet,
I am not in as you say: "clear denial that the Earth is a planet and lives in space. Essentially stating that the Earth is flat and that the Sun, which holds 98.9% of the total mass of our solar system, is hardly a factor in the Earth's climate."
I have said repeatedly that the weather here on Earth is most certainly effected by events in space. I only question your forecasting ability based on these events.
I have also been on the record as saying that you are one of the "brightest guys in the room" and this forum is much better with your participation in it. However, you are kind of a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. You are insightfull, well read, very bright and certainly have the ability to think outside the box. (Dr Jekyll). Unfortunately there is another side of you that is rude, condecending and childlike with a nasty habit of attacking anyone with the gaul to question your methodology. I think Flearider described you best in an earlier post that I am not going to repeat.
I sincerly hope all is well and I would suggest you accentuate the (Dr. Jekyll) and eliminate the (Mr. Hyde).
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 11, 2014 17:51:59 GMT
I have to throw a flag on this play!
My profession is to cut through the hyperbole and either get the facts or demur from issuing what the client needs.
Where we stand here is with Astromet claiming ENSO is "climate change in action". Then he proceeds to:
1) define ENSO as a series of unquantified atmospheric effects resulting from a series of unquantified astronomical events.
and
2) state that the ENSO index is nonsense resulting from a metric derived by misguided NOAA scientists.
Icefisher, are you sure you are qualified to throw a flag? Astromet has quite the resume:
""I forecasted the last ENSO", "I was the one who forecasted the multi-year drought for 2012 that spread to California.", "I have forecasted a wide variety of climatic and weather-related events by means of Astrometeorology and anyone who learns this applied system of climate and weather forecasting - Astrometeorology - will be able to do what I can do.", "another hot and drier-than-normal year, which I forecasted back in 2011","As for Jupiter, I suggest you read what I wrote about Jupiter", "I am a polymath, a scientist, writer, and a forecasting astrologer and astrometeorologist.", "I forecasted the last El Nino and La Nina, as you know, so I know what I am talking about.", "Most of the climatologists and meteorologists who come to me for answers to how I successfully do what they cannot (forecast)" "I should know since I forecast these major climate events.""
For god sakes the guy wore out the letter "I" on his last 3 laptops! The fact remains that if astromet was as accurate as he claims there would be no need for him to beat on his own chest harder than King Kong. Its been my experience in life that the real pro's don't need to toot their own horns.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 11, 2014 4:25:52 GMT
Astromet,
No hard feelings. But you are not leading a horse to water. You are leading it to cool aid and I'm not drinking it. Good luck in your endeavors and with your books.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 10, 2014 21:39:03 GMT
I agree with Glenkoks. We know how ENSO is physically measured by NOAA. So we know if an ENSO based upon that definition has occurred or not. Your definition is different but to my knowledge you have not provided any means of physically measuring whether an ENSO has occurred or not based upon your definition. No disrespect to Astromet but I prefer the quite simple if not "dummed down" definiton of just how ENSO is measured by NOAA. Simply put warming or cooling + or - for a set period of time. It's easily validated and we can look for the effects like increased rainfall across the eastern Pacific Ocean, wetter winters for Texas, the suppression of Hurricanes in the Atlantic etc...
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 10, 2014 4:39:33 GMT
Astromet,
Sorry you think I am wasting your time. Apparantly we are both in agreement on just what the ENSO cycle is. Most people I know use the metrics established by NOAA to determine if we are in the La Nina, El Nino or Neutral state. If you are using different 'metrics' it kind of makes comparing your forecast with NOAA's kind of difficult stemming from a lack of standardization.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 10, 2014 4:05:00 GMT
This from the NOAA website.
What is ENSO (El Niño/ Southern Oscillation)?
ENSO stands for El Niño/ Southern Oscillation. The ENSO cycle refers to the coherent and sometimes very strong year-to-year variations in sea- surface temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air pressure, and atmospheric circulation that occur across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño and La Niña represent opposite extremes in the ENSO cycle.
El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific warm episode.
La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific cold episode.
Does this definition of ENSO different for yours?
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 10, 2014 3:58:01 GMT
Astromet,
NOAA's definiton seems pretty cut and dry:
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
Seems clear enough for the average person. A plus or minus ONI over a set period of time.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 10, 2014 3:50:51 GMT
Astromet,
In addition NOAA and the CPC assign a percent value on the likelhood of an el nino occuring. For instance their current forecast assigns a 70% chance of an el nino occuring this summer and an 80% chance this winter. However, it is a moot point if the metric you are using is different than what they are using.
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