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Post by af4ex on Feb 8, 2011 14:47:59 GMT
Looks like the sun is "revving up". And a new area emerging on the east limb to replace 1153. Already can see x-ray background increasing in anticipation. Attachments:
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Post by jcarels on Feb 8, 2011 15:23:32 GMT
Nice to see some white light activity today, 5 sunspot groups visible. Although 11153 is the only interesting one.
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Post by af4ex on Feb 9, 2011 0:44:16 GMT
The SFI has shot up to 90, mostly due to AR1153, I believe. 1153 has had a total of 11 x-ray flares in the last 24 hours. It also has an amazingly fiery appearance in 17Ghz microwaves.
Penticton 1700Z, 2000Z, 2300Z:
2011 Feb 2 2800 79 79 79
2011 Feb 3 2800 80 80 80
2011 Feb 4 2800 81 82 81
2011 Feb 5 2800 81 81 80
2011 Feb 6 2800 80 80 80
2011 Feb 7 2800 82 82 82
2011 Feb 8 2800 91 90 91
The new areas in the east are also probably contributing to this rather sudden rise in activity. Could this be the start of the "spike" that we have hypothesized recently? Look how the x-rays have ramped upward. Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 9, 2011 0:59:36 GMT
Lately I've been using the SDO AIA 1700 angstrom UV images to view the active regions. For some reason this wavlength brings out more detail in the plages than white light. It also renders sunpots as dark regions, just like in visible light. But apparently the magnetic visibility threshold is somewhat higher than the 1500 Gauss threshold in visible light. For example, there are now 5 regions bearing sunspots in visible light, but in 1700A light, only 1153 has spots, an indication that its magnetic fields are significantly stronger. (No surprise there). Does anyone know the B field cutoff threshold for UV light for sunspot visibility? Would that threshold be lower than 1500 Gauss for IR imagery? (How come we never see IR imagery of the solar disk?) Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 9, 2011 2:04:02 GMT
Wow, M1.9 x-ray event in AR1153 at ~0130Z, two simultaneous flares! That might push the SFI to 100. Attachments:
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Post by vk2fdxr on Feb 9, 2011 2:46:53 GMT
Nice, it'll be a new record for Solar Cycle 24 if it does peak over 100  heres to hoping. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 9, 2011 2:47:16 GMT
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Post by af4ex on Feb 9, 2011 3:24:39 GMT
Must be those positive H,D,Z blips at 0130Z. What is the mechanism for generating this magnetic pulse? Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 9, 2011 3:31:55 GMT
bradk> Sunspots drop to zero, and flux up to 90. Very L & P like, > time will tell if these spots pop or not. Don't believe every sunspot count you see. That 'zero' is some kind of glitch. There are now five (5) official active regions! Expect the SN to shoot up soon!!
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1153 N15W71 171 0080 Dko 05 08 Beta
1154 N08W51 152 0010 Hrx 01 01 Alpha
1155 N17E26 075 0010 Cro 02 03 Beta
1156 S19E43 063 0010 Cro 04 06 Beta
1157 N22E36 064 0010 Cro 01 03 Beta
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 199
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Post by bradk on Feb 9, 2011 3:35:18 GMT
I think we could see an SSN number anywhere from 10 to 60 tommorrow - depends on speck counting...and as 1153 seems to still be in sight I am not sure how we hit zero...
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 199
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Post by bradk on Feb 9, 2011 4:14:18 GMT
Shucks! They found a way to make specks into a SSN of 71 (meaning I underestimated at 60). Is this why Leif tells us to use flux or area?
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Post by ncfcadam on Feb 9, 2011 8:53:45 GMT
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Post by af4ex on Feb 9, 2011 12:22:52 GMT
Americans almost always write their dates: MM/DD/YYYY (I prefer 9-Feb-2011) |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 9, 2011 12:28:40 GMT
Shucks! They found a way to make specks into a SSN of 71 (meaning I underestimated at 60). Is this why Leif tells us to use flux or area? The SN is somewhat meaningless to me, because of the builtin latencies and other complications. The microwave picture, IMHO, gives a much better estimate of what's going on. We can see 1153 will soon be gone, but there seems to be a 'replacement' on the east limb (but doubtful if it can fill 1153's shoes). 1154 and 1155 are tin whistles which will probably fade away soon. The remaining two, especially 1157*, look more robust and will probably provide some interesting activity. *[edit: I say that because 1157 was flaring last night (B-level) but everyone was apparently too busy watching 1153 to notice] Attachments:
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 9, 2011 15:54:21 GMT
Shucks! They found a way to make specks into a SSN of 71 (meaning I underestimated at 60). Is this why Leif tells us to use flux or area? The Sun is messy. Only an average over a month or so has any real meaning. Don't read too much into values on a single day. |
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heres to hoping.
