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Post by byz on Nov 29, 2008 21:27:07 GMT
Despite what is happening to the world right now... can someone tell me, are these huge cold massess being created in such an enormous rate in the Arctic Cycle normal ? normal for that increasing rate in that time? Did you guys notice? I havent seen such changes in the recordings in weather history before. At least not the last 30 years maybe? Forecasts keep showing the cold masses getting extremely bigger in very fast time. Is that my imagination or is it strange? I had the feeling asking that... If you have any infos about it or havent notice this yet. look by your own and tell me. These cold masses will sure have a positive impact to sea ice extent, there is no doubt for that. Well were do we start! Over the last few years we have had lots of el nino/la nina events which help to suppress such things. Also the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been +Ve for the last decade (in the 19th century it swung from + to - every year, but in 20th the cycle became roughly every decade!!). This year we have no el nino/la nina also AO and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) are tending to a - ve. All of the above (plus maybe a solar minimum) lend them selves to much colder conditions a Hale winter in the UK (really bad) has been over due for a few years (they roughly turn up every 2nd solar minima). So there you have it ;D
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Post by alex4ever on Nov 29, 2008 22:09:42 GMT
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Post by jimg on Nov 30, 2008 3:20:29 GMT
Speaking of cold....
(note, I haven't read all the posts since I visited last, so I apologize if this is redundant)
It's getting pretty chilly in Siberia!
-20F to -35F & lower.
Is this typical for November or will the winter months be even more brutal?
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Post by alex4ever on Nov 30, 2008 8:21:07 GMT
Well i am not special to this to answer to you but what i know is that it will go a lot more down by 5 December with tendency of getting more lower in a Holy Mother fast rate, things will be different there in 6 and and much more in 14 days. The most interesting is the region these cold masses will cover and how cold they are and their endurance, not just the cold itself. I did not notice such thing previous years, so if anyone can tell? Any expertise because i am really surprised ;D
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Post by woodstove on Nov 30, 2008 14:19:59 GMT
In the last 12 hours (from 7 am to 7 pm local time) it went from -12 to -42 in Agata, Russia. The forecast for Tuesday: a high of -42 and a low of -68. And yet, as I mentioned recently elsewhere it is still super warm in Moscow. If and when the frigid air makes its way into the rest of Russia, the PERCEIVED temperature is going to be about a million below .
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Post by alex4ever on Nov 30, 2008 16:20:05 GMT
Exactly my point man, if this rate is unusual, what will happen once they start coming to europe for instance??? No matter how warm it will be, temps will fall upside down right? and that is why i wonder the consequences. woodstove if i may? Are your numbers in F or C?
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Post by woodstove on Nov 30, 2008 17:10:35 GMT
Exactly my point man, if this rate is unusual, what will happen once they start coming to europe for instance??? No matter how warm it will be, temps will fall upside down right? and that is why i wonder the consequences. woodstove if i may? Are your numbers in F or C? Those are Fahrenheit -- sorry about that! I don't have an opinion about whether this winter will be the one where Europe starts to see serious cooling. Western Europe, I imagine, won't cool very seriously until the flip of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation something like 10 years from now. Some parts of Europe will likely be cold, off and on, in the meantime. But when the PDO and AMO are both negative, with an expected major solar minimum, I do foresee a snowball fight or two in Athens. Maybe sledding.
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Post by alex4ever on Nov 30, 2008 17:38:21 GMT
PDO is negative nowmore right?
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Post by woodstove on Nov 30, 2008 18:19:30 GMT
PDO is negative nowmore right? The PDO should be negative for ~30 more years
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Post by kiwistonewall on Nov 30, 2008 19:10:29 GMT
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Post by alex4ever on Nov 30, 2008 19:44:50 GMT
These coming years are that keep confusing me ;D The word "coming" is different for everyone. coming= 1 year or coming=10y or coming=20y or coming= oh well we wont be alive or i ll be a grandpa till then we have time! You are going to say: We can not predict nature that good so we may not know.... Or in other words, opinions are unnumerable. Mr John Casey Director of SSRC Center sent a letter to the Senator Obama McCain e.t.c. in 22 of September 2008: www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html (Scroll down and click the first link) Letter to Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidates 9-22-2008 (this one) His words really influenced me, he WARNS them, and he sounds so sure, i personally contacted with him too. He doesnt say maybe, he says we are in danger. Obama did not say anything yet about it although Mr Casey was optimistic that he will response and take measures. What do you have to say about this letter? A "cold propaganda? ;D Or maybe they know something more and thus, that is the reason they are so sure? I did not see you talking about this letter before Now is the chance! Personally Mr John Casey convinced me with his words and he was the first to inform me about this, though i dont wanna sound fanatic and behave like AGW in a more blizzardious version ;D
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Post by kiwistonewall on Nov 30, 2008 20:26:52 GMT
Hi Alex4ever:
We can never be certain in this world. All we can do is look at past patterns. We are in a cooling period. We just don't know what will happen next.
Science makes progress by having theories, and checking them out against what happens. Long term climate change over decades is slow science! It will take many, many lifetimes to really understand what is going on.
Some folk will have theories, and may predict what happens in the next few years. This does NOT make them correct. It may be just luck. Or maybe, they are right.
Anyone who is absolutely sure shouldn't be trusted!!
But given all the patterns, cycles and theories, many of us at this board know that something unusual with the climate is going on, which appears to be connected in some way with the solar cycle.
The current cooling period may be a return to conditions of the middle of last century, or maybe to something much colder.
But it is fair to warn everybody, it may get very cold soon.
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Post by jimg on Nov 30, 2008 21:27:58 GMT
Unfortunately, the AGW camp has enough momentum to keep it going for awhile (years probably). Obama has indicated that he will uphold the US Supreme Court's ruling that CO2 can be regarded as a polutant and therefore, its release regulated (and taxed!).
Elsewhere on this board, was mentioned that Utah coal plant permits were being blocked by the EPA.
Gov't officials don't like to be made a fool of when they initiate policy, so they'll stick with failed policy until it's overturned or they're given the boot.
When it comes to combating cold, we're likely to be on our own.
Didn't temps drop significantly in Western Europe at the beginning of the LIA in a 10 year period?
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anse
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 62
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Post by anse on Nov 30, 2008 21:35:35 GMT
Alex4ever,
There is a lot of investigation going on regarding a possible link between solar activity and the Arctic Oscillation.
Simply google solar activity arctic oscillation and you´ll see. The theory goes well with the Little Ice Age when solar acticity was low and Europe had bitter cold winters.
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Post by alex4ever on Nov 30, 2008 21:43:31 GMT
Yeah i keep on searching for any new info about that since January... ;D I know what hapent before only if we COULD know what will happen to future. Or at least, WHEN something MAY take place. Unfortunately we will only know when the train will be next to us
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