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Post by throttleup on Aug 20, 2013 22:18:11 GMT
So warm air entering the arctic in 2012 melted ice to record lows, and warm air entering the arctic this year did not melt ice to record lows.
I find your explanation lacking.
Physics indeed does not change, the only thing changing here is your story.
Where is this heat that melts ice one year and not another?
[/quote] Numo,
Sorry for nagging you. I'm just trying to get to your level.
So, help me understand your point. The warm air from the south made successive cyclones in 2013, but not in 2012. And that's why the Arctic is colder/less ice melt than expected this year. So, the successive cyclones of 2013 made more clouds (I guess) and that also helped keep temps below the boiling point. And no doubt the successive cyclones of 2013 helped contain the ice as well, I presume.
(Although I seem to remember graywolf howling about how such cyclones would break up the poor ice and ram it through the Fram).
So that I may do better at next year's ice extent poll, I need to try to get a handle on warm air from the south, cloud formation in the Arctic, and Arctic cyclones. Got it.
Now, before you think I'm totally nuts, I agree with you that "warm air from the south" could have an effect.
I agree that clouds have an effect.
I agree that Arctic cyclones have an effect.
But I still don't get how "warm air from the south" PLUS cloud formation PLUS Arctic cyclones make it colder in the Arctic.
Is it your contention that the Arctic cyclones bottle up the cold air and thus keep it at the Pole?
I haven't checked (really), was there consistent, significant cyclonic activity at the North Poke the last 4 months to keep temps somewhat suppressed in the Arctic?
Are Arctic cyclones in the models?
(I'm guessing not since the dire predictions of Arctic DOOM seem to keep missing their mark).
At least you make clear it ain't just CO2. I agree with you on that as well. (Unless of course, it's the CO2 causing the warm air causing the clouds causing the cyclones causing the compact ice and causing low Arctic temps. You'll never get into an Al Gore lecture with those ideas).
I appreciate your patience. I just need a little more explanation...[/font] |
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Post by magellan on Aug 21, 2013 2:37:19 GMT
This is known as "rotten decaying ice". As Graywolf would say (ala Neven), there are Cliffs, and there are Cliffs.  |
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Post by numerouno on Aug 21, 2013 4:52:44 GMT
throttleup, I think you are asking questions I've already answered. The cyclones do break up ice, and this is evidenced by the immediate effect they have on the extent values. They also bring clouds with them that have the opposite effect on the summertime melting process that relies heavily on insolation. If you're really interested in finding out more about the current events, you may want to check the articles and discussion over at Neven's: neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/08/asi-2013-update-7-cold-and-cloudy.html |
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Post by cuttydyer on Aug 21, 2013 10:09:09 GMT
throttleup, I think you are asking questions I've already answered. The cyclones do break up ice, and this is evidenced by the immediate effect they have on the extent values. They also bring clouds with them that have the opposite effect on the summertime melting process that relies heavily on insolation. If you're really interested in finding out more about the current events, you may want to check the articles and discussion over at Neven's: neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/08/asi-2013-update-7-cold-and-cloudy.htmlA Neven sentiment from the link: "This melting season has been a great and humbling teacher so far" Does Neven have a theory relating to the current Southern Hemisphere sea ice area?  |
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Post by icefisher on Aug 21, 2013 12:52:26 GMT
throttleup, I think you are asking questions I've already answered. The cyclones do break up ice, and this is evidenced by the immediate effect they have on the extent values. They also bring clouds with them that have the opposite effect on the summertime melting process that relies heavily on insolation. If you're really interested in finding out more about the current events, you may want to check the articles and discussion over at Neven's: neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/08/asi-2013-update-7-cold-and-cloudy.htmlA Neven sentiment from the link: "This melting season has been a great and humbling teacher so far" Does Neven have a theory relating to the current Southern Hemisphere sea ice area? How humbling we will have to wait and see. Jozef Stefan was one of the first to recognize that about 1/3 incoming of TSI was absorbed by the atmosphere. Trenberth's budget has 161 watts absorbed by the surface and 78 absorbed by the atmosphere. So that relationship continues to hold. the system is acting like there are fewer greenhouse gases. Less incoming absorption and less outgoing absorption making for the temperature extremes we are seeing. In honor of that when looking at the whole ice situation we are seeing more winter time ice and less summer time ice. total ice extent is flat and has been flat since 2007. . . .which of course corresponds very nicely with flat global average temperatures. Except that global average temperatures have been cooling for several years. The difference would seem to be due to ocean momentum. The ice is a trailing indicator. Flatness for global temperatures began in 1997, flatness for ice extent began in 2007. Cooling of global temperatures began around 2003 to 2005. Thus it follows increases in ice should be seen also about 6 to 8 years after the beginning of flat ice extent, also 10 years later than global average surface temps. So while it will take several years to convince our insistent friends ice recovery should be underway either this year or by 2015. |
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 21, 2013 13:47:20 GMT
Well, that linear trend in temp is a thing of the past as the temps in the Arctic are continuing their death spiral.
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Post by magellan on Aug 21, 2013 20:19:03 GMT
A Neven sentiment from the link: "This melting season has been a great and humbling teacher so far" Does Neven have a theory relating to the current Southern Hemisphere sea ice area? How humbling we will have to wait and see. Jozef Stefan was one of the first to recognize that about 1/3 incoming of TSI was absorbed by the atmosphere. Trenberth's budget has 161 watts absorbed by the surface and 78 absorbed by the atmosphere. So that relationship continues to hold. the system is acting like there are fewer greenhouse gases. Less incoming absorption and less outgoing absorption making for the temperature extremes we are seeing. In honor of that when looking at the whole ice situation we are seeing more winter time ice and less summer time ice. total ice extent is flat and has been flat since 2007. . . .which of course corresponds very nicely with flat global average temperatures. Except that global average temperatures have been cooling for several years. The difference would seem to be due to ocean momentum. The ice is a trailing indicator. Flatness for global temperatures began in 1997, flatness for ice extent began in 2007. Cooling of global temperatures began around 2003 to 2005. Thus it follows increases in ice should be seen also about 6 to 8 years after the beginning of flat ice extent, also 10 years later than global average surface temps. So while it will take several years to convince our insistent friends ice recovery should be underway either this year or by 2015. It needs to be in simpler terms so Neven can understand its meaning. It certainly is clear that Numo, Graywolf and Tstat get most of their information from Neven. Numo doesn't like denialist blogs that report published research and data, lockstep with Neven's iron fisted practice of banning anyone that could influence the cult member's zombie-like obedience and love for the all knowing Neven.  |
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Post by numerouno on Aug 22, 2013 8:01:26 GMT
The DMI 30% extent keeps on plummeting, which indicates the fact that most of the relative recent extent increase comes from displaced thin and fragmented ice.  |
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 22, 2013 8:52:18 GMT
Looks cooked to me very much like your line extensions.
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Post by numerouno on Aug 22, 2013 9:04:03 GMT
Looks cooked to me very much like your line extensions. You mean my line extentions were not realistic? Line extentions are ALWAYS realistic. A straight line is a 100% reliable indicator. |
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Post by numerouno on Aug 23, 2013 9:18:40 GMT
Looks like someone of something in the upper echelons has taken my line extension studies seriously ...  |
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Post by magellan on Aug 23, 2013 13:36:06 GMT
Really Numo? If so, then the ice volume should be less this year too since when ice cubes get smaller, they shrink faster.
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Post by Andrew on Aug 23, 2013 16:24:31 GMT
Looks like someone of something in the upper echelons has taken my line extension studies seriously ... That data is a weak old even on the norwegian site. The older version the same page links is up to date. |
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Post by trbixler on Aug 23, 2013 17:32:38 GMT
Applause from all and sighs of relief! Wow who would have guessed this was even possible given the new norm of CO2 domination. "56% Increase In Arctic Ice Since Last Year"  link |
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Post by numerouno on Aug 24, 2013 1:52:58 GMT
Then how come it was created on the 22nd, and my ruler says it has advanced well to the right of the month halfway mark as well?  |
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