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Post by sigurdur on Nov 19, 2013 3:05:15 GMT
Andrew: Don't dell your coat yet
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Post by Andrew on Nov 19, 2013 3:19:37 GMT
Andrew: Don't dell your coat yet It is normal for it to be very cold here and I have no doubt that it will eventually be very cold here this winter. Snow for Christmas seems likely by my estimation.
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 19, 2013 8:43:59 GMT
Does not seem very likely the alarmist predictions of it being a cold winter are going to come to anything I don't believe a sudden spike in Arctic temps can be taken as an indication of an impending mild Winter. Looking back to 1962 there was a remarkably similar spike upwards at the end of the year: 1962:Then, just before the Christmas 1962 the cold spell started, persisting throughout January, February and early March. The Winter of 62/62 was one of the four or five coldest Winters in the CET record, and the coldest of the 20th century. 1963:The frozen Rhine river close to Mainz during the winter of 1962/1963: Snow drifts at Blaenavon 1962/1963: Farm at Overtown in deep snow in 1963: West Mersea Hard looking out towards the Packing Shed 1962/1963: Thames at Windsor during the winter of 1962-3: The Zürichsee frozen over during the winter of 1962-1963: Blocks of frozen seawater on St.Annes Beach, February 1963:
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Post by Andrew on Nov 19, 2013 9:48:18 GMT
Does not seem very likely the alarmist predictions of it being a cold winter are going to come to anything I don't believe a sudden spike in Arctic temps can be taken as an indication of an impending mild Winter. Sure, but unless you are as blind as a bat, the picture so far is more than just one point of data. Nice pictures though.
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 19, 2013 9:56:07 GMT
I don't believe a sudden spike in Arctic temps can be taken as an indication of an impending mild Winter. Sure, but unless you are as blind as a bat, the picture so far is more than just one point of data. Nice pictures though. Apologies, I thought your post was referring to the temperature spike. Even looking at the whole post Summer trend, I still wouldn't bank on a mild Winter. 2013 looks similar to the trend of 1967: 1967:The UK Winter of 1967/1968 was cold & snowy - it was the year snow caused chaos. Big Ben stopped for 4 hr, many villages were cut-off; roads impassable in many areas. Over a foot (circa 30cm) of SNOW fell in the Welsh border counties and conditions were made worse by string winds (generally up to 40 knots in GUSTS) causing drifting (some reports of up to 90 cm). This snowstorm has gone down in the history as the storm that trapped the snow-ploughs! Three council snow-clearance lorries were trapped over the West Berkshire downs on the Wantage to Lambourn road. There was also major disruption to the London airports (then Heathrow & Gatwick), and to Birmingham - (in the early 21st century, this snowstorm would have caused near-panic! (Prichard/Weather/JMet)
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Post by douglavers on Nov 20, 2013 5:46:14 GMT
Is it possible that the spike in the COI Arctic Temperature graph is caused by a vast "blob" of cold air leaving the Arctic and depressing temperatures further South?
The "blob" would of course be replaced by much milder air, causing the spike.
This milder air would then be cooled by the giant Arctic Refrigeration System. [total darkness, frozen ground/sea]
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Post by karlox on Nov 20, 2013 8:21:49 GMT
Is it possible that the spike in the COI Arctic Temperature graph is caused by a vast "blob" of cold air leaving the Arctic and depressing temperatures further South? The "blob" would of course be replaced by much milder air, causing the spike. This milder air would then be cooled by the giant Arctic Refrigeration System. [total darkness, frozen ground/sea] This might have to be related and explained through NAO-AO figures analysis?: From around october 20th NAO index climbed to high positive values after months running negative to neutral and it is still up there but currently trending downhill; it´s been forecasted it might turn to negative values soon...
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 20, 2013 13:11:27 GMT
The Schtick reports: a 2005 paper published in the ICES Journal of Marine Science shows NASA GISS data demonstrating that 20th century Arctic temperatures peaked between 1920 to 1940, followed by a decline over the remainder of the 20th century. According to the authors, "From approximately 1920 to 1940, North Atlantic Waters from Greenland to Norway warmed significantly, by as much as 3–4°C (Tåning, 1948). Although the causes of this event are not well understood, there is no doubt of its authenticity or widespread occurrence in temperature records (Figure 7)." and "a major warming event in Icelandic and Greenland waters between 1920 and 1940 was extensively documented (e.g. Sæmundsson, 1932; Ahlmann, 1948; Lysgaard, 1948)." Surface air temperatures for (a) St. John's, Newfoundland; (b) Nuuk, Greenland; (c) Akureyi, Iceland; and (d) Bodo, Norway. Solid line is a decadal moving average. Data from NASA database at Goddard Space Center [James Hansen's former employer GISS], New York. Paper link: icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/62/7/1360.fullSchtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/hansens-nasa-giss-data-confirm-arctic.html
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 20, 2013 13:41:01 GMT
Is it possible that the spike in the COI Arctic Temperature graph is caused by a vast "blob" of cold air leaving the Arctic and depressing temperatures further South? The "blob" would of course be replaced by much milder air, causing the spike. This milder air would then be cooled by the giant Arctic Refrigeration System. [total darkness, frozen ground/sea] Interesting idea. Looking back through the DMI trends at years with significant Arctic Winter temperature spikes, many of those Winter spikes do coincide with notably cold / snowy UK episodes. Example: 2010In 2010 the UK experienced bitter cold at both ends of the year.
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 27, 2013 11:20:20 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 27, 2013 16:01:15 GMT
Arctic ice cover, what caused the sudden switch in the mid 1970's from -ve to +ve? The above graph was posted on Steven Goddard's blog to demonstrate how the NSIDC cleverly starts their graphs in 1978, the year of peak Arctic, creating the impression that there is a linear downwards trend: But what grabbed my attention was the sudden switch from -ve to +ve in about 1976 - why the sudden gain?
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Post by cuttydyer on Dec 17, 2013 9:30:09 GMT
The BBC report: "Esa's Cryosat sees Arctic sea-ice volume bounce back" Data from Europe's Cryosat spacecraft suggests there were almost 9,000 cu km of ice at the end of this year's melt season. This is close to 50% more than in the corresponding period in 2012. Link: www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25383373?postId=118192465
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 19, 2013 3:15:58 GMT
www.grindtv.com/outdoor/outposts/post/message-in-a-bottle-reveals-fact-about-glacier/Researchers in a remote locale in the Arctic discovered the most unusual message in a bottle, one that wasn’t ”tossed into the ocean many years ago.” In fact, it wasn’t tossed in the ocean at all. No, this message in a bottle was placed under a pile of rocks, a cairn, near the edge of a glacier in 1959 and contained an incredible message about global warming. The letter from American geologist Paul T. Walker revealed that the cairn was built 168.3 feet from the edge of the glacier and asked anyone who found the message to re-measure the distance and send the information back to him and colleague Albert Crary.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 19, 2013 3:57:24 GMT
www.grindtv.com/outdoor/outposts/post/message-in-a-bottle-reveals-fact-about-glacier/Researchers in a remote locale in the Arctic discovered the most unusual message in a bottle, one that wasn’t ”tossed into the ocean many years ago.” In fact, it wasn’t tossed in the ocean at all. No, this message in a bottle was placed under a pile of rocks, a cairn, near the edge of a glacier in 1959 and contained an incredible message about global warming. The letter from American geologist Paul T. Walker revealed that the cairn was built 168.3 feet from the edge of the glacier and asked anyone who found the message to re-measure the distance and send the information back to him and colleague Albert Crary. It seems the glacier has retreated 233 feet since 1959. While this certainly does not prove or disprove AGW it indicates that the warming has been substantial. Personally I am glad they put the message and the bottle back so we can see where it is in say another 10-20 years?
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 20, 2013 14:35:11 GMT
www.grindtv.com/outdoor/outposts/post/message-in-a-bottle-reveals-fact-about-glacier/Researchers in a remote locale in the Arctic discovered the most unusual message in a bottle, one that wasn’t ”tossed into the ocean many years ago.” In fact, it wasn’t tossed in the ocean at all. No, this message in a bottle was placed under a pile of rocks, a cairn, near the edge of a glacier in 1959 and contained an incredible message about global warming. The letter from American geologist Paul T. Walker revealed that the cairn was built 168.3 feet from the edge of the glacier and asked anyone who found the message to re-measure the distance and send the information back to him and colleague Albert Crary. It seems the glacier has retreated 233 feet since 1959. While this certainly does not prove or disprove AGW it indicates that the warming has been substantial. Personally I am glad they put the message and the bottle back so we can see where it is in say another 10-20 years? Actually it says nothing in particular about warming. All that can be said is that the precipitation rate at the source of the glacier is less than the melting/calving rate at the termination of the glacier.
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