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Post by AstroMet on Dec 10, 2012 21:24:26 GMT
Glenn, Have you ever seen Astromet and Mark at the same place at the same time? Just wonderin' Why don't you ask Mark? There's only one of me and despite some of you bozos thinking you speak for 'everyone' (which you don't) you ought to spend more time actually learning the facts about astronomic forecasting rather than acting like little prissy schoolgirls. Some of you fellows have a lot to learn about the world's climate but are simply too lazy to even start. That's your problem. We don't babysit here.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 10, 2012 21:27:14 GMT
woodstove, It certainly makes one wonder. But there are those who still actually believe that Nostradamus predicted everything from the rise of Hitler to 9/11. So who knows? Oh jeez. You again with your pop culture 'Nostradamus' crap. Why don't you read more serious books and texts Glenn and spend less time watching all the TV? But, who knows? I guess it's easier to sit on your behind rather than to use your mind critically to learn more. Get a life kiddo.
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Post by strongminded on Dec 11, 2012 12:46:20 GMT
Dear All:
Although I have not commented on this board before I have been reading for the last two years or so. This is not the only board I read concerning climate and weather. This is the most accurate board I have ever read concerning long term forecasting and for that I will thank Astromet. I never drank the Global Warming kool-aid. I have been a student of climate since the early 80's. I learned early on that the climate models that were being used couldn't even forecast a month forward for a very small geographic area; let alone an entire continent with the accuracy Astromet has shown. Most certainly because Astromet actually looks toward the Sun...the actual bus driver of the weather and climate show. When I was in college and grad school we were taught to look at the raw data...apparenlty that has changed huh Glenn. Anyone who thinks you can only forecast climate looking at only "our atmosphere" is an uneducated dunce. We do not live in a closed system. One of the biggest political scams (read money) ever put upon the people of the planet is global warming. FOLLOW THE MONEY!
These super storms that everyone is afraid of are not all that rare either. What is relatively new is mankinds foolishness of building on fragile coastlines, in flood plains, and other low lying areas. The Weather Channel and the like has also upped the drama of it all. I would bet that if a storm the size of Sandy or Katrina hit a remote part of any country anywhere we (the general population) would have never known. Who builds a city at or below sea-level?
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 11, 2012 23:19:40 GMT
When Theodore explains what his definition of ENSO is his forcasts will be easier to understand.
There are 3 states of ENSO 1. La Nina 2. El Nino 3. La Nada
ENSO is not an event, it is never ending with different states applicable.
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Post by fly guy on Dec 11, 2012 23:42:01 GMT
woodstove,
Nope, never met Astromet (maybe in a prior life?) and only heard of him 5 months ago, a crop scout sent me a link to his thread. This was at a time when I was visiting friends in central Iowa watching their corn crop roast at 100 - 106 degree temps, 7 - 8 days in a row. So, yep, when I went back to Astromet's posts back in early March, you guessed it, I've been impressed with him ever since. When I told my scout I was impressed, she had sent me a link that Astromet had made on another thread or site where Astromet had posted a 5 year prediction in December of 2008. Embarrassed to say that I lost the link to that post. Wish I would have had it when he posted it.
Strongminded,
Nice to hear from someone else that has been following him longer than myself. I'm sure Astromet will appreciate your comments. For awhile there, based on the foolishness of recent comments on this thread, I was second guessing my hopes because I don't understand how he does what he does. I have high hopes that he continues future predictions with the level of accuracy that he has experienced in the past. Will I bet the farm on his future predictions? Nope, probably not. Will his future predictions influence my management decisions to some degree? Yes, I think they will.
Mark
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Post by magellan on Dec 12, 2012 0:48:26 GMT
Astromet, IIRC, recently stated there would be no El Nino until 2020 or so. That is easily testable. I really hammered Astro when he first came here, but have come to respect him even if I'm not on board (have no opinion these days) with his predictions. The debate between him and Glennkoks was quite enjoyable actually (brings back memories). Being a member of this forum Astro has every right to pen his views even if wrong. Sure he comes across a bit eccentric, but we all have our moments right? I have noticed he doesn't bite unless first bitten and suspect is quite a nice guy in person. In fact, I bet most everyone here is likable outside the debate room, possibly even me Yes, it may seem improbable, but away from the internet and politics, I'm actually very easy going, enjoy life by burning as much fossil fuels as is affordable and warranted, and don't need some self-righteous greenie nabob telling me I'm destroying the planet by doing so, especially when in reality I'm probably "greener" than they are. There, see, I'm all upset again....... Now Sigurdur is a perfect gentleman in all situations that is hard to get riled up. So I say bring it on Astro.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 12, 2012 3:35:22 GMT
Thank you Magellan. I enjoy the science......not too much the politics.....altho I am a very political person.
However.....IF I do get riled up........beware. I take no prisoners.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 12, 2012 17:31:36 GMT
I am still waiting for Theodore to define ENSO.
That part of his forecast is seriously lacking in credibility.
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Post by karlox on Dec 12, 2012 19:12:21 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 12, 2012 19:22:28 GMT
I am still waiting for Theodore to define ENSO. That part of his forecast is seriously lacking in credibility. That part of his forecast? Your being kind.
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Post by karlox on Dec 12, 2012 20:01:07 GMT
If instead of La Nada as forecasted by NOOA ENSO weekly discussion report (neutral ENSO +-0.5ºC) we had a La Niña, let´s say weak-mid one for most of 2013... What would be the effects on both hemisphere considering all other actual index and current weather patterns? Whom would have forecasted La Niña if any? Thank in advance for any reply I might deserve
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Post by neilhamp on Dec 12, 2012 20:34:03 GMT
I too would like to echo magellan's comments on Astro. I had a brief disagreement with him. An enquiry was misconstrued as a criticism Probably my fault due to the Transatlantic " separated by a common language" problem It was quickly resolved and the misunderstanding corrected
It would be a very dull place without the Astro's of the World I presume you are of this world Astro
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Post by duwayne on Dec 12, 2012 21:45:27 GMT
If instead of La Nada as forecasted by NOOA ENSO weekly discussion report (neutral ENSO +-0.5ºC) we had a La Niña, let´s say weak-mid one for most of 2013... What would be the effects on both hemisphere considering all other actual index and current weather patterns? Whom would have forecasted La Niña if any? Thank in advance for any reply I might deserve Karlox, you ask who would have forecast La Nina, if any. Going back to the beginning of this Board and on the prior Board, I have predicted that 2007-2037 would be a period like 1947-1977 when La Ninas dominated ENSO. Using the muti-variate ENSO (MEI) as the measure www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html the average ENSO value for 1950-1977 was -0.29 (MEI values only go back to 1950). The average for 2007 through the latest date is -0.30. So far ENSO is on track.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 12, 2012 22:43:15 GMT
When Theodore explains what his definition of ENSO is his forcasts will be easier to understand. There are 3 states of ENSO 1. La Nina 2. El Nino 3. La Nada ENSO is not an event, it is never ending with different states applicable. Hi Sigurdur, I did respond to you earlier on the correct use of the climate term ENSO, but perhaps you missed it. In my view ENSO is a major climate event. Your use of the term ENSO is actually incorrect as you say that ENSO is 'never-ending." That is not true. We are not always in a state of ENSO. And there is no "La Nada." The number #3 of your 'La Nada' is actually the normal temperature variations/oscillations of the Pacific. It is neither too 'hot' nor too 'cold' of the extremes known as ENSO. The oscillations of the Pacific are always in motion as are the weather. These are the usual normal and minor oscillations of the Pacific - but they are surely not ENSO. The term ENSO is used by forecasters to describe a major climate event: that is, either a warm El Niño phase event or a cold La Niña phase event that makes impact on the atmosphere and thus the climate. That is what I mean by ENSO. I forecasted the 2009-2011 ENSO and published it here on this board as well -> solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=987Now, all the Piccadilly mis-usage of the term ENSO notwithstanding: I use ENSO to mean the El Niño & La Niña Southern Oscillation - that are major climate events that take place across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The climate spectrum bookends of ENSO - El Niño (warm phase) and La Niña (cold phase) - cause extreme weather events like drought, floods, etc., in many regions of the world. That is what I mean by ENSO. One of the problems with some who misuse the term ENSO is that they falsely believe it refers only to El Nino, but that is not so, since the SO (Southern Oscillation) part of ENSO includes the cold phase as well as the warm phase. La Niña is the correct name for the cold phase of ENSO. The Southern Oscillation (SO) refers to variations of temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. This is both the warming phase (El Niño) AND the cooling phase La Niña) that makes up the term ENSO. There are transitional phases of ENSO leading to the start and the end of a El Niño phase event or La Niña phase event. These affect world weather too. They are mostly observed in teleconnections that affect short-term climate conditions. I call them 'extremes of weather,' - anomalous weather events associated with ENSO. It is important to know the proper terms. Some continue to show a 'warm' bias in favor of El Nino when using the term ENSO, but fail to understand the SO portion of ENSO also includes La Niña. This has to do with a lack knowledge and understanding of oscillations. It is as basic a thing as the hot and cold water spouts on your kitchen and bathroom sink. The extremes are when you have the 'hot' water turned way up (El Niño) or the cold water turned all the way up (La Niña.) The minor temperature variations of the Pacific are its normal oscillations - but that is not ENSO - which only occurs 10-11 years apart which is how I was able to forecast the most recent one of 2009-2011 by astronomic means and forecast the next ENSO to occur in 2021 to 2023. Hope that clears it up for you.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 12, 2012 22:57:54 GMT
I too would like to echo magellan's comments on Astro. I had a brief disagreement with him. An enquiry was misconstrued as a criticism Probably my fault due to the Transatlantic " separated by a common language" problem It was quickly resolved and the misunderstanding corrected It would be a very dull place without the Astro's of the World I presume you are of this world Astro Yes, I am of this world Neil, lol! Thanks.
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