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Post by karlox on Dec 22, 2012 12:20:19 GMT
Sigurdur, that it means that Southern Hemiphere is turning colder now? As far as both ocean water and lower atmosphere is concerned? Means that a Souther Hemisphere Jet Stream patterns change? Know, many questions, but your answers will help me to understand current earth global weather pattern...
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 22, 2012 15:31:13 GMT
Karlox: The SOI index is still in nuetral territory. The sea surface temps on the west side of South America are a little bit cool, but not cold. I don't know what the temperature response will be, nor have I studied the Southern Hemisphere jet streams. There are several maps from this site that I use. www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/composites.htmlThe water vapor loop is most helpful to show jet stream activity. As far as South America, most of the moisture that gets there is from the Horn of Africa to the center of Brazil.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 22, 2012 15:38:42 GMT
I guess the embedded water vapor loop is old. I make my own by downloading the image and then making a movie out of them.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 22, 2012 15:44:49 GMT
Karlox: The SOI index is still in nuetral territory. The sea surface temps on the west side of South America are a little bit cool, but not cold. I don't know what the temperature response will be, nor have I studied the Southern Hemisphere jet streams. There are several maps from this site that I use. www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/composites.htmlThe water vapor loop is most helpful to show jet stream activity. As far as South America, most of the moisture that gets there is from the Horn of Africa to the center of Brazil. I was looking at that the other day using GOES - see: rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wvOK that satellite only sees the Brazil end of the ITCZ that is as you say normally the source of convective weather. However, you can see how dry the air is in the ITCZ with very little in moisture over Brazil. Dry also means that there is little watervapor to 'trap' tropical hear so the tropics may be cooling faster than normal.
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Post by karlox on Dec 22, 2012 15:49:55 GMT
Karlox: The SOI index is still in nuetral territory. The sea surface temps on the west side of South America are a little bit cool, but not cold. I don't know what the temperature response will be, nor have I studied the Southern Hemisphere jet streams. There are several maps from this site that I use. www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/composites.htmlThe water vapor loop is most helpful to show jet stream activity. As far as South America, most of the moisture that gets there is from the Horn of Africa to the center of Brazil. Thanks Sigur I´ve liked this one very much: www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/movie-large.php
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 22, 2012 16:18:32 GMT
Thanks Nautonnier. That is a good link.
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Post by neilhamp on Dec 28, 2012 8:27:26 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 31, 2012 6:30:01 GMT
I've got the same thing, another warm year ahead - it's dry for the most part during the first half of 2013, but then warm and sultry (almost tropical rather than bone dry for some regions) during the second half of 2013. We will see another series of heat waves, like the ones I forecasted for North America for 2012. It's another scorcher this coming summer and autumn.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 1, 2013 5:49:10 GMT
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Post by prairiefarmer on Jan 8, 2013 0:44:20 GMT
Hey Astromet
I'm real new as a poster here, but have followed your forecasts for over a year now. I'm real interested in what you have up for 2013. Grain merchants are trying real hard to force us into hedging new crop for 2013 now already. Staying away from that in 2012 was the best thing as it was hard to produce much of anything. Soil moisture across much of N.A. looks poor to very poor at this point, and is worse than last year at this time. In my opinion unless there is a very wet spring, grain production will be at risk in 2013, as soil moisture deficits are hard to overcome in midseason. Anything you can provide as guidance for us guys scratching the ground would be helpful.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 8, 2013 2:41:36 GMT
HI prairiefarmer: Nice to see another famer on the board.
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Post by karlox on Jan 8, 2013 5:51:33 GMT
Hey Astromet I'm real new as a poster here, but have followed your forecasts for over a year now. I'm real interested in what you have up for 2013. Grain merchants are trying real hard to force us into hedging new crop for 2013 now already. Staying away from that in 2012 was the best thing as it was hard to produce much of anything. Soil moisture across much of N.A. looks poor to very poor at this point, and is worse than last year at this time. In my opinion unless there is a very wet spring, grain production will be at risk in 2013, as soil moisture deficits are hard to overcome in midseason. Anything you can provide as guidance for us guys scratching the ground would be helpful. Welcome on board Prairifarmer! Greetings from a city dweler in old Europe, Madrid, Spain. Grain dealers are thus trying to close all 2013 harvest contracts in advance regarding other years? Pushing prices lower than last year? What happens if harvest turn to be a short-bad one? If you could enlightned me with some general description of your products? I am very interested in learning more, being curious!
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 17, 2013 9:01:09 GMT
Hey Astromet I'm real new as a poster here, but have followed your forecasts for over a year now. I'm real interested in what you have up for 2013. Grain merchants are trying real hard to force us into hedging new crop for 2013 now already. Staying away from that in 2012 was the best thing as it was hard to produce much of anything. Soil moisture across much of N.A. looks poor to very poor at this point, and is worse than last year at this time. In my opinion unless there is a very wet spring, grain production will be at risk in 2013, as soil moisture deficits are hard to overcome in midseason. Anything you can provide as guidance for us guys scratching the ground would be helpful. Hi Prairiefarmer, Sorry I missed your post, been working a lot of long hours after the holidays. Send me your coordinates and I'll take a look. Generally, early-pre spring 2013 will be wet, say late Feb., into March. The looks of it extends from Feb. 23 to Apr. 6, more or less, so there's a good chance to gain soil moisture, but the rains look heavy... with a good soak and muddy conditions. Do this, in January and early February test soil quality and make sure you've got excellent irrigation paths... clear off blockages in areas that tend to flood with heavy rains... make sure the patch you plant in can handle the precipitation. There will be some problems with grain quality this year... better get a keen close eye on the seeds this year... look for defects, poor quality. Merchants may try to push poor quality seeds this year... something's up. Spread the word. Grains will pick up in 2013, but the same regions that experienced the 2012 drought will see more dry conditions into summer I'm afraid. That's what I have for now. More later. Send me your coordinates and I'll take a look see.
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Post by pilgrim on Jan 24, 2013 15:12:04 GMT
Theodore
I hope the offer was to all as I am interested in what you forecast for these coordinates, basically north central Iowa. Thanks ---Mike
42 degrees 44' 21.867" N 94 degrees 42' 27.877" W
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okgal
New Member
Posts: 14
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Post by okgal on Jan 25, 2013 16:51:09 GMT
And how about SW Oklahoma. I feel were in for more dry here, I have not had a hay crop since 2010 and my neighbors wheat fields look sorry to non existent
34.6086° N, 98.3900° W
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