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Post by sigurdur on Dec 12, 2012 23:20:43 GMT
If instead of La Nada as forecasted by NOOA ENSO weekly discussion report (neutral ENSO +-0.5ºC) we had a La Niña, let´s say weak-mid one for most of 2013... What would be the effects on both hemisphere considering all other actual index and current weather patterns? Whom would have forecasted La Niña if any? Thank in advance for any reply I might deserve Karlox, you ask who would have forecast La Nina, if any. Going back to the beginning of this Board and on the prior Board, I have predicted that 2007-2037 would be a period like 1947-1977 when La Ninas dominated ENSO. Using the muti-variate ENSO (MEI) as the measure www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html the average ENSO value for 1950-1977 was -0.29 (MEI values only go back to 1950). The average for 2007 through the latest date is -0.30. So far ENSO is on track. Yes you did Duwayne and I agree with your forecast 100%
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 12, 2012 23:21:58 GMT
Theodore: In a nutshell, your defintion of ENSO is an extreme La Nina or El Nino then?
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 13, 2012 0:22:33 GMT
Theodore: In a nutshell, your defintion of ENSO is an extreme La Nina or El Nino then? Yes. That's why ENSO events make world headlines when they occur because they are extreme climate events.
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Post by karlox on Dec 13, 2012 10:20:57 GMT
If instead of La Nada as forecasted by NOOA ENSO weekly discussion report (neutral ENSO +-0.5ºC) we had a La Niña, let´s say weak-mid one for most of 2013... What would be the effects on both hemisphere considering all other actual index and current weather patterns? Whom would have forecasted La Niña if any? Thank in advance for any reply I might deserve Karlox, you ask who would have forecast La Nina, if any. Going back to the beginning of this Board and on the prior Board, I have predicted that 2007-2037 would be a period like 1947-1977 when La Ninas dominated ENSO. Using the muti-variate ENSO (MEI) as the measure www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html the average ENSO value for 1950-1977 was -0.29 (MEI values only go back to 1950). The average for 2007 through the latest date is -0.30. So far ENSO is on track. Thanks Duwayne! Any correlation with Sun´s activity comparing 1950-1977 and 2007-2012??
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Post by duwayne on Dec 13, 2012 14:37:10 GMT
Thanks Duwayne! Any correlation with Sun´s activity comparing 1950-1977 and 2007-2012?? Karlox, my focus is on predicting global temperatures. Since I don't feel real confident about my ability to predict the activity of the sun, I haven't focused much on the correlation. I am, however,beginning to see evidence for a secular weakening of solar activity (beyond the 11-year cycle) which may affect future global temperatures. I'm hoping someone on the Board can show a strong case for their ability to predict the sun's multidecadal activity and how much that might affect global temperatures so I can adjust my forecast accordingly.
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Post by karlox on Dec 13, 2012 16:38:53 GMT
Karlox, my focus is on predicting global temperatures. Since I don't feel real confident about my ability to predict the activity of the sun, I haven't focused much on the correlation. I am, however,beginning to see evidence for a secular weakening of solar activity (beyond the 11-year cycle) which may affect future global temperatures. I'm hoping someone on the Board can show a strong case for their ability to predict the sun's multidecadal activity and how much that might affect global temperatures so I can adjust my forecast accordingly. Please refer to Dr. Leif Svalgaard: www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202011%20SH34B-08.pdfI have just been kindly answered regarding new scientific papers supporting a modulation of Sun´s geomagnetism and activity with positioning and cycles of Solar System´s planets... That could be the missing link between Solar Activity and earth´s climates trend over decades or centuries... very promising! In main Solar Board, questions f
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Post by duwayne on Dec 14, 2012 14:06:33 GMT
Karlox, my focus is on predicting global temperatures. Since I don't feel real confident about my ability to predict the activity of the sun, I haven't focused much on the correlation. I am, however,beginning to see evidence for a secular weakening of solar activity (beyond the 11-year cycle) which may affect future global temperatures. I'm hoping someone on the Board can show a strong case for their ability to predict the sun's multidecadal activity and how much that might affect global temperatures so I can adjust my forecast accordingly. Please refer to Dr. Leif Svalgaard: www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202011%20SH34B-08.pdfI have just been kindly answered regarding new scientific papers supporting a modulation of Sun´s geomagnetism and activity with positioning and cycles of Solar System´s planets... That could be the missing link between Solar Activity and earth´s climates trend over decades or centuries... very promising! In main Solar Board, questions f Karlox, from what I can see Dr. Svalgaard doesn't believe there is a good correlation between planetary movement and solar activity. Others believe differently. But, regardless of the cause, there do seem to be secular patterns of solar activity which encompass several "11-year" cycles. Using the number of spotless days as a measurement tool, cycles 10 through 15 were weak (high number of spotless days) and cycles 16 through 23 were strong users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html#Main. Cycle 24 is weak. Could this be the beginning a multidecadal period of lower solar activity?
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ray
New Member
Posts: 35
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Post by ray on Dec 14, 2012 17:49:20 GMT
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Post by karlox on Dec 14, 2012 19:29:35 GMT
Please refer to Dr. Leif Svalgaard: www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202011%20SH34B-08.pdfI have just been kindly answered regarding new scientific papers supporting a modulation of Sun´s geomagnetism and activity with positioning and cycles of Solar System´s planets... That could be the missing link between Solar Activity and earth´s climates trend over decades or centuries... very promising! In main Solar Board, questions f Karlox, from what I can see Dr. Svalgaard doesn't believe there is a good correlation between planetary movement and solar activity. Others believe differently. But, regardless of the cause, there do seem to be secular patterns of solar activity which encompass several "11-year" cycles. Using the number of spotless days as a measurement tool, cycles 10 through 15 were weak (high number of spotless days) and cycles 16 through 23 were strong users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html#Main. Cycle 24 is weak. Could this be the beginning a multidecadal period of lower solar activity? It looks like! amazing how sun behaves currently within a time frame that is supposed to be of higher/maximum activity for the cycle... due to updated technology never before in mankind history had we had so many measures and data and equipment watching all related aspects of our sun´s behaviour during a grand minimum, which is which might be happening... Great for Science! Don´t you think?
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 14, 2012 20:04:07 GMT
It is terrible for humanity, but yes, it is great for science.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 15, 2012 3:01:36 GMT
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Post by fly guy on Dec 21, 2012 18:56:40 GMT
Astromet,
Southern Hemisphere, Argentina and parts of Brazil very wet with more rain coming. Are they going to stay wet? Some parts have 25% of their crop to plant yet and our markets are acting like they have a big crop coming. Any thoughts?
Mark
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 21, 2012 20:04:40 GMT
Mark: Argentina will continue to stay moist. Corn is being switched to beans. The combination of Argentina and Brazil, with the acreage planted and current patterns will result in a huge crop of beans. The corn crop in Arg will be less than initially forecast. With that stated, the slow export pace of US corn will result in a burdemsome supply before the 2013 crop is even planted.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 21, 2012 20:28:34 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 21, 2012 21:54:49 GMT
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