zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Jun 18, 2013 20:24:29 GMT
From the Met Office Workshop Prof Stephen Belcher from the Met Office Hadley Centre, who lead the discussions said that changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as the ocean current is called, was one of the prime factors. Professor Stephen Belcher: "We need to know what's loading the dice for the position of the jet stream" "It's the pattern of warm and cold water, it's the contrast of the warm and the cold, when that sits in the right place beneath the jet stream, it can kind of steer the jet stream and influence where it goes," he said. "I'm excited about this work, it's a new thing that we didn't really know about." Really! You have only just realized the AMO could affect the UK climate! And if they "didn't really know about" any significant thing, how can they have been so certain about their advice to politicians....?
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2013 6:09:26 GMT
Icefisher,
I'm not saying funding hasn't been sufficient in the past but the problem is growing because the computers are getting more expensive to buy and run and because the problem is getting more complex. Part of the increasing complexity is down to the better observation systems that are in place which put the model developers under more pressure a) to build in better simulations and b) to match more detailed observations. Which leads to your other comment.
There are three reasons why a bigger computer will help: 1. Higher resolution of the same model, 2. ensembles - running the same model lots of times but each version with a tweak helps give an idea of its variability and range of response - so you are less dependent on one outcome which may have been the extreme response. 3. including more science (chemistry, carbon cycle etc.)
There is a Tower of Babel issue with explaining the results to folk like us - but it is a complex issue anyway so you shouldn't shy away from it. The individual people working on the individual aspects will get more opportunity to understand more about their particular issue. In the fable, the individual groups of people with their individual languages have ended up building multiple competing "Towers" to look into the mind of "God" (LHC, GCM, HST, JET, Curiosity, Voyager etc.)
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 19, 2013 7:57:21 GMT
"I'm excited about this work, it's a new thing that we didn't really know about." Really! You have only just realized the AMO could affect the UK climate! Staggering, is it not... I predict the tax payer will be expected to dig deep to enable the Met Office to catch-up. Will the Met Office eventually come to the conclusion that it's the sun forcing the AMO? - I'm not going to be holding my breath... Paper on AMO forcing from the University of Bern: PDF LINK: static2.egu.eu/media/awards/union-osp-award/2012/stefan_muthers.pdf
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 19, 2013 11:08:48 GMT
From the Met Office Workshop Prof Stephen Belcher from the Met Office Hadley Centre, who lead the discussions said that changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as the ocean current is called, was one of the prime factors. Professor Stephen Belcher: "We need to know what's loading the dice for the position of the jet stream" "It's the pattern of warm and cold water, it's the contrast of the warm and the cold, when that sits in the right place beneath the jet stream, it can kind of steer the jet stream and influence where it goes," he said. "I'm excited about this work, it's a new thing that we didn't really know about." Really! You have only just realized the AMO could affect the UK climate! It would appear that they may be making a correlation a causation. The jetstreams are formed by the weather systems and these can form relatively stable systems that are accepted - the Azores high, the Greenland High etc. These anti-cyclones are the markers around which the depressions run with the attendant jetstreams. These scientific meteorologists _ might_ have noticed that the weather in a depression is cloudy (although they may not, as it may not be in their computer models). The cloudy weather reduces sea surface temperatures by reducing solar radiation (albedo) and by precipitation (rain snow hail) from the colder upper atmosphere. So the path of the Jet streams leads to a similar path on the surface of cooler water, especially when there is blocking high as there was throughout 2012. Someone then measures the difference in SST and says "wow the SSTs are forcing the jetstreams" as Stephen Belcher has just said. There are times when talking to the research meteorologists that you wonder if they listen to what they are saying (and I have spent time researching with them). The jetstreams are normally around 100 or more knots and at the tropopause so ~35,000ft in the temperate zones with a lot of weather below them. I would like an explanation of how a half to a degree centigrade change on the surface 7 miles below them alters the path of the geostrophic/Coriolis formed winds. Surely it is more logical that the weather associated with the stable Rossby wave in the jet streams is affecting the surface temperature?
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Post by cuttydyer on Aug 29, 2013 12:36:37 GMT
Guess who's endorsing "Gaia - The Cabaret" (Songs, sketches and surprises celebrating the world view of Gaia theory) - coming to a local theatre near you... none-other than Dr Richard Betts, head of the Climate Impacts strategic area at the Met Office... God help us...
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 31, 2013 12:15:08 GMT
Well if we didn't know already it does explain the 'world view' of the Climate Impacts strategic area at the Met Office. I wonder how they include Gaia in their GCMs?
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 4, 2013 8:39:45 GMT
Time for the Met Office to be privatised?
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Sept 4, 2013 11:25:21 GMT
I reckon most people on this board could do better, whatever their viewpoint!
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Sept 6, 2013 0:14:02 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 6, 2013 3:06:42 GMT
Must have been written by Dana (no brains) Nutticelli.
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Sept 6, 2013 11:21:03 GMT
So extreme heatwaves, Hurricane Sandy and ice melt are CLIMATE CHANGE, and heavy rainfall or cold spells are WEATHER!
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Sept 18, 2013 16:27:07 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 18, 2013 18:32:40 GMT
They were off even more than I was. Wonder where my bonus is?
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Sept 27, 2013 13:13:58 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 27, 2013 21:57:35 GMT
Why do they think this particular warming is so unusual? The models can't replicate the MWP.....so was that unusual as well? ?? (not expecting a bonus any time soon)
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