zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Dec 8, 2013 23:06:35 GMT
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Post by trbixler on Dec 9, 2013 0:30:12 GMT
Funny how swift boat was mentioned and no one notice the sun. Politics as usual.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 9, 2013 1:56:26 GMT
trbixler:
They can't mention the sun........if they did the funding would go to the solar physics guys.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 9, 2013 3:11:39 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Rare-solar-cycle-has-cold-implications-for-UK-climateNASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906. Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810. Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s. Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers. This type of climate is a result of a jet stream that’s positioned further south than normal – caused, it’s thought at least in part, by the behaviour of the sun. The mechanism as to why weak solar cycles may affect the position of the jet stream is poorly understood.
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Post by karlox on Dec 9, 2013 7:48:39 GMT
"The mechanism as to why weak solar cycles may affect the position of the jet stream is poorly understood" Question: Though TSI variations are claimed to be too small to induce any noticeable weather pattern shift, I´ve read that it is UV large variation from a Solar Maximum to a Solar Minimum -such as late 20th century cycles vs Dalton Minimum- what affect Jet Stream by affecting ozone layer. Anyone could further say whether this approach is scientific or not?
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Post by cuttydyer on Dec 9, 2013 8:58:32 GMT
what affect Jet Stream by affecting ozone layer. Anyone could further say whether this approach is scientific or not? Hi Karlox, This paper published in the Journal of Climate finds tiny variations in solar activity over 11-year solar cycles have greatly amplified effects upon climate via changes in the Arctic Oscillation, North Pacific sea surface temperatures & sea level pressure, and via changes in stratospheric ozone from solar UV: Abstract The surface climate response to 11-yr solar forcing during northern winter is first re-estimated by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) statistical model to Hadley Centre sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) data over the 1880-2009 period. In addition to a significant positive SLP response in the North Pacific found in previous studies, a positive SST response is obtained across the midlatitude North Pacific. Negative but insignificant SLP responses are obtained in the Arctic. The derived SLP response at zero lag therefore resembles a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Evaluation of the SLP and SST responses as a function of phase lag indicates that the response evolves from a negative AO-like mode a few years before solar maximum to a positive AO-like mode at and following solar maximum. For comparison, a similar MLR analysis is applied to model SLP and SST data from a series of simulations using an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The simulations differed only in the assumed solar cycle variation of stratospheric ozone. It is found that the simulation that assumed an ozone variation estimated from satellite data produces solar SLP and SST responses that are most consistent with the observational results, especially during a selected centennial period. In particular, a positive SLP response anomaly is obtained in the northeastern Pacific and a corresponding positive SST response anomaly extends across the midlatitude North Pacific. The model response versus phase lag also evolves from a mainly negative AO-like response before solar maximum to a mainly positive AO response at and following solar maximum. Link: journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00843.1This UK Met Office presentation "Top Down Solar Modulation of the North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation" includes a description of the relatively large variation in UV at 201-400nm during solar cycles: Here's a slide showing two of the top down mechanism routes: Link to Met Office presentation: lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2012ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/S2-01_Ineson_sorce2012.pdf
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 9, 2013 11:13:33 GMT
One person who has been proposing this mechanism for some time is Stephen Wilde who lives up to his last name when people say that the mechanism is uncertain as he has been telling everyone how the sun changes lead to latitudinal/meridonal jet streams for a considerable time. This is his website which bears some reading . He introduces his own climate model and has several papers of interest.
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Feb 10, 2014 14:13:00 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 10, 2014 14:58:48 GMT
zaphod: Ayep.....climate change. The thing she didn't mention was that CO2 is NOT a driver of "climate change".
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Post by cuttydyer on Feb 10, 2014 16:28:59 GMT
Paul Homewood points out, Julia just can't make her mind up. Last April, Julia Slingo told us that “climate change was loading the dice towards freezing, drier weather.”: Apparently, she actually meant milder, wetter weather: Link: notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Feb 11, 2014 13:23:37 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Feb 11, 2014 20:24:47 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Feb 11, 2014 22:39:11 GMT
I notice the obligatory "More research is urgently needed to deliver robust detection of changes in storminess and daily/hourly rain rates. " More research is ALWAYS needed.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 11, 2014 23:20:50 GMT
Thanks Graywolf. A very interesting read.
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Post by cuttydyer on Feb 12, 2014 9:18:34 GMT
"due to the highly variable nature of UK weather and climate" - they got that right. Looking back through the CET record it's obvious that the UK is prone to very sudden climate / weather shifts.
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