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Post by nautonnier on Feb 4, 2021 18:26:42 GMT
It looks like the North Atlantic Drift has two competing attractors one North to the pole and the other South along the West coast of Africa. The African attractor seems to have the most effect this winter.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 26, 2021 12:27:48 GMT
Someone woke up the Daily Mail.....  "The Gulf Stream is 'dangerously close to tipping point': Ocean current is at its weakest for over 1,000 YEARS due to climate change and could plunge Europe into a deep freeze
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the ocean current
It moves warm water from Gulf of Mexico to the UK by convection in the ocean
Analysis of its strength shows it has weakened dramatically since the 1950s "www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9300711/The-Gulf-Stream-weakest-1-000-YEARS-climate-change.htmlThey got the information from:  |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 26, 2021 14:10:12 GMT
Doesn't take much. They have a "linked in" alarm clock on the Climate Desk. No alarm ... no desk.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 26, 2021 16:24:04 GMT
I think things are a little more complicated than the 'panic panic the Gulf stream has slowed down PANIC PANIC!!' climate' scientists' would try to claim.
The North Atlantic Drift is a hot return due to cold fresh water dropping to the sea floor and flowing equatorward. So (as we are told as nauseam) the Arctic Ice is lower than normal. Therefore, there is less ice to melt therefore there is less cold fresh water to replace, therefore the North Atlantic Drift is not sucked North and follows its South Eastern flow into the Canaries current.
I spy a feedback loop.
IF the North Atlantic Drift of warmer water doesn't get to the Arctic, then the Arctic Ocean will be colder and there will be more ice that year. IF that ice melts a lot the next year then the North Atlantic Drift get stronger and there is less ice the next winter and so on
There are almost certainly an interlocking web of these feedbacks for the THC as it meanders around the world's oceans the amount of heat energy being transported is huge.
It is not all CO2 that's for sure.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 26, 2021 18:55:25 GMT
"A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline
Abstract
A decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength has been observed between 2004 and 2012 by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID – Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array – Western Boundary Time Series, hereafter RAPID array) with this weakened state of the AMOC persisting until 2017. Climate model and paleo-oceanographic research suggests that the AMOC may have been declining for decades or even centuries before this; however direct observations are sparse prior to 2004, giving only “snapshots” of the overturning circulation. Previous studies have used linear models based on upper-layer temperature anomalies to extend AMOC estimates back in time; however these ignore changes in the deep circulation that are beginning to emerge in the observations of AMOC decline. Here we develop a higher-fidelity empirical model of AMOC variability based on RAPID data and associated physically with changes in thickness of the persistent upper, intermediate, and deep water masses at 26∘ N and associated transports. We applied historical hydrographic data to the empirical model to create an AMOC time series extending from 1981 to 2016. Increasing the resolution of the observed AMOC to approximately annual shows multi-annual variability in agreement with RAPID observations and shows that the downturn between 2008 and 2012 was the weakest AMOC since the mid-1980s. However, the time series shows no overall AMOC decline as indicated by other proxies and high-resolution climate models. Our results reinforce that adequately capturing changes to the deep circulation is key to detecting any anthropogenic climate-change-related AMOC decline."os.copernicus.org/articles/17/285/2021/
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Post by acidohm on May 24, 2021 5:08:58 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on May 24, 2021 5:59:41 GMT
Impressive. I want to see what is happening east of there, where parts of the gyre break off northward. |
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Post by acidohm on May 25, 2021 19:12:21 GMT
Impressive. I want to see what is happening east of there, where parts of the gyre break off northward. |
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Post by missouriboy on May 25, 2021 21:53:32 GMT
The pressure average for May over the Azores is still looking to be low historically.
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Post by nautonnier on May 30, 2021 15:54:14 GMT
The interesting part is how much of the 'heat' is taken South on the Azores current? This should have 2 effects:
1. The hurricane gestation area West of Africa is warmer - so spawns more Atlantic hurricanes
and
2. NW Europe is cooler
Is there any numeric information that shows that correlation exists cold NW Europe higher Atlantic hurricanes?
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 15, 2021 19:14:27 GMT
Not sure if this was posted before. The Position of the Gulf Stream North Wall. /photo/1 AMOC Trends from the paper  |
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Post by acidohm on Jun 19, 2021 10:23:49 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 19, 2021 13:51:48 GMT
Minus 0.8 C in one month. What causes that kind of change?
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Post by flearider on Jun 19, 2021 14:18:52 GMT
Minus 0.8 C in one month. What causes that kind of change? fresh water v salt water fresh will freeze faster ... easiest way to a ice age lots of fresh water .. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 19, 2021 14:53:40 GMT
Minus 0.8 C in one month. What causes that kind of change? fresh water v salt water fresh will freeze faster ... easiest way to a ice age lots of fresh water .. But with temperatures lower than normal (?) in the Arctic, where is all that fresh water coming from? The action is north of 45N. The AMO is a gross stat and needs to be looked at in at least two parts.  |
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